What If Will Brennan was...good?

"What If?" is a great question, something that can tickle the mind while also keeping it grounded in a limbo state of reality. It's a great exercise that allows you to freeform thoughts and see what is at the edges of possibility. If you are prone to anxiety, ((*raises a hand, meekly*)) or have an over-active imagination that tends to get out of control quickly, ((*raises other hand meekly-er*)) you are very familiar with the "what if" game and it is not meant for you. But when we use "what if" in the context of sports, we can still get ourselves into trouble if we don't stay within the confines of the reality of the situation. Positing that teams should have made trades that weren't offered or signing players who weren't interested in bringing their services to their location is hard on fans who might be more of the casual sort. But letting the mind wander about what might happen if a player exceeds expectations is fun, so let's try it: what if Cleveland Guardians right fielder Will Brennan was good?Now let's qualify some things; "Good" is a relative term. But using some benchmarks would be better: a wRC+ of 100 is a league average, and average can even be good when you've had problems finding the right player at a position for years. So what would be "good" for Will Brennan? There seem to be some bigger holes than what you'd like and then right next to it is something fun. Like a 12.5% K-rate is amazing, you rarely find players that strike out less, and he's the 10th best if you lower the qualifications to 450 plate appearances ((But he's the third-best Guardian behind Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez.)) although you shouldn't have to move it,  but adjacent to that is a second-worst walk rate at 3.5%. Someone with a good enough eye to keep the Ks down to that low of a number should be able to generate more walks. So why isn't it happening? Pitchers aren't challenging Brennan because of the quality of contact he enacts. This right here shows that:As with what fits the MO of Guardians hitters, Brennan achieves most but not all checkboxes: a low K-rate/good contact, but the quality of contact is loathsome. If and until Brennan can put a hurting on some mistakes, he just simply is not going to achieve those high walk rates because pitchers are fine throwing to him in the zone. Using the same 450 PA qualifications, Brennan is 22nd in Contact% and 15th in O-Contact%, meaning he's fouling off pitches or making weak contact on grounders. Having a good O-Contact% is fine if you are punishing those pitches, but Brennan and his bottom three percentile exit velocity is not getting it done. Where he's hitting it could also factor into play with not getting the quality; Brennan went pull side ((Not poolside, like in Kauffman Stadium.)) only 34.7% of the time in 2023, which was tied for 30th worst. Spraying the ball the other way is fine if you are getting liners to the gap or seeing-eye doubles down the line like Kwan, but Kwan Brennan is not. What's the difference? Kwan is near-elite at not swinging at balls out of the zone and when he does, he connects at the 5th-best clip. Brennan has a 42.2 O-Swing%, meaning if there is a ball thrown to him outside of the zone, he's gonna swing at it 42% of the time. Counter that with Kwan, 23rd-lowest with 24.8% and you see the issue. Getting the pitcher to throw you something in the zone by being okay with a walk is fine; swinging at stuff out of the zone can be too, as evidenced by the two names higher than Brennan on the O-Swing% leaderboard, Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor, but both have a drastically different contact profile than Brennan. So Brennan needs to figure out whether he wants to be a swing-at-everything power hitter like Gime and JNaylor or a contact-first selective artist like Kwan.So we've figured out how he can be good, but what if he was and what does that mean for the roster and organization for the future? There are a bevy of players gunning for Brennan's spot, a list that contains players on the major league roster and in the minors. Estevan Florial is fighting for the job in center, but if he's beaten out, he could shift over. Ramon Laureano would make a great platoon partner with Brennan, but he's also capable to start every day. Deyvison De Los Santos and Tyler Freeman have picked up outfielder gloves this year, with the former trying to find a spot to stick on the roster all year. Same with Angel Martinez, but he's being looked at in center field and is unlikely to make it to the bigs. Most Guardians fans in the know are aware that this year is likely the last with Chase DeLauter on the Opening Day roster as well. If Brennan unlocks some power or finds some way to lay off chase pitches, it's possible we see a trade of someone like Johnathan Rodriguez or Jhonkensky Noel because the guy in right is there to stay. This is all what if but if he keeps cranking home runs like this, ((Albeit off a Quad-A lefty in Kirby Snead.)) too the pull side, he could find a long-term solution.

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— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) February 25, 2024