WFNY Guardians Staff Chat: Spring Training Starts!
With Spring Training starting in earnest this week, and the Cleveland Guardians having their first game on Saturday, we wanted to get the pulse of the WFNY staff and do a little Spring Training roundtable!While there are questions to be answered about first base/DH and the outfield alignment, the only starting position in open competition is shortstop. Power rank these contenders heading into spring training and pick who you expect to start on Opening Day: Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio, Tyler Freeman, Juan Brito, Jose Tena, Angel Martinez. Milner: No matter what happened during the offseason, this was how shortstop would always be settled. Sure, we would have all loved a consolation trade to avoid this cluster, but here we are. The winner of this gladiator-style death match is not guaranteed anything outside of being on the opening-day roster (as long as they keep hitting, that is). Still, it’ll be fun to see who makes a statement to be Andres Gimenez's up-the-middle partner for the long haul. Here are my current spring training power rankings. They can always change depending on the vibes and performances.
- Gabriel Arias
- Bryan Rocchio
- Tyler Freeman
- Juan Brito
- Jose Tena
- Angel Martinez
Gerbs: I would have liked to move one of the top 3 (Arias/Freeman/Rocchio) this offseason for some help elsewhere, but that seems farfetched at this point. Personally, unless something drastic happens over the weeks of February/March (i.e. a trade or injury or explosion of performance), I expect Gabe Arias to get the start on Opening Day and the first crack to lock in the job. Rocchio would be waiting in the wings of Columbus, with Freeman as the utility guy. And even though it is sacrilege, I refuse to believe the organization is going to just cut out a consensus top 30-50 prospect in Rocchio and promote Brito ahead of him just to prove they were right to trade Nolan Jones away. I have no doubt they view Brito highly, but to have him jump the others is foolish. Tena and Martinez are in either "prove it" territory (Tena) or "hey, let's get you away from this scrum and learn outfield" (Martinez). My rankings mirror Wizard's for Opening Day, but I think Brito is 3rd in the org's viewpoint in overall importance, and flip-flop Angel/Tena because they obviously want him to get him playing time, which is fine. ((This answer brought to you by the parenthesis.))Corey: I would expect Arias, Rocchio, and Freeman to be under plenty of scrutiny this spring training to see who pops and whose play demands a starting spot on Opening Day. In addition, we don't know what kind of manager Steven Vogt will be yet, but it feels like a safer play for him to go with one of those players who have seen big league innings before. It would be quite the power play for Vogt to call up, for example, Tena after playing only 15 games in AAA, but that feels unlikely.Chris: Rocchio, Arias, Brito, Freeman, Tena, Martinez. Arias felt like the starter of the near-future at the end of last season, but with Rocchio showing his skills off in winter ball, I think the top 2 spots have switched since then. This should be neck-and-neck all spring or I will be disappointed. Brito seems to have more excitement behind him as a future starter, even if it is at second base, so he squeaks out ahead of Freeman here, though I expect the latter to be on the Opening day roster, but not the former. Tena and Martinez feel like they need lucky (or unlucky for others) breaks to get any major playing time in the majors this year, though Martinez working in the outfield might give him a clearer path. Rocchio should be the Opening Day shortstop, but Arias and Freeman should be in the majors as well. How playing time gets divvied up, I have no clue.Bode: Barring injury, the only two options to start on Opening Day are Brayan Rocchio and Gabriel Arias. Arias seems to be the "fan favorite" at least online as he continually is discussed as the "likely" starter. Meanwhile, every publication projects Rocchio as the better option and a Top 40-60 MLB prospect. Personally, while I enjoy the raw traits that Arias possesses (arm, power, athleticism), Rocchio is the smoother overall player and the one I suspect will garner the lion's share of the starts at shortstop. Whether or not that begins on Opening Day, that is more difficult to discern.Of the others, if we change it to "who gets the most starts at shortstop in 2024," then Angel Martinez is likely an outfielder now so he's in last place. While Freeman has a better chance of sticking on the MLB roster initially, I do believe the organization will push Tena and Brito by mid-season and they will both end with more starts in the defensive-5 spot (Tena more than Brito).Shane Bieber lost fastball velocity over the last few seasons. Tristan McKenzie has potential lingering arm issues. None of the rookie starting pitchers from 2023 have thrown over 150 innings with the big club. What type of performance do you expect from the projected starting rotation?Milner: I’m expecting the rotation to be the strength of the roster. The potential of this group is a top 5 rotation in baseball as long as they can stay healthy. Last year, Tanner Bibee became the pseudo-ace of the rotation, becoming a ROTY runner-up, along with Logan T. Allen and Gavin Williams pulling their weight, often while the other available starters floundered around them. If Triston McKenzie and Shane Beiber can rebound from injury-plagued seasons, it’s easy to see why they’ll win many ball games on pitching alone.Gerbs: Growth and renewal, if you wanna get earthy with it. The top five should all be able to get to 180 innings this year, which should be within the organization's guardrails for workload. Of the veterans, Bieber has shown over the winter that he can maybe regain some velo and McKenzie has been seen throwing without issue. If Bibee can keep ascending to ace status, Williams can "pitch" not just "throw", and Allen can bulldog his way through the lineup three times more often than not, the starting rotation should be the bell-cow of the team.Corey: Dominance? I once heard the Wisconsin Badgers running back room referred to as a skee-ball machine that produced a new, identical player after a previous one graduated. At this point that is how I feel about Cleveland's pitching development system. They don't all throw the same or look the same, but if any of the above players started 2-9 and had to be demoted to AAA I would be surprised. Health, as always, is the wild card.Chris: I expect only Shane, Triston, Tanner, Logan, and Gavin to start games this year. I will be wrong, for lots of reasons. However, I don't think it's silly to think they all could start at least 30 times apiece. McKenzie has only reached that number in a season once, and Bieber only twice, but both have reason and rest to give themselves the chance this year. Shane wants to hit the jackpot in free agency this offseason, Triston wants to prove he has ace potential and maybe get extension talks going again, they both had easier loads on their arms last year, though McKenzie's arm is more concerning than just rest can take care of. But if I had to guess, I'd say all five of these guys go over 150 innings this year, with one of them not throwing all of them for Cleveland, whether by trade or demotion.Bode: All rotations have injury concerns because pitching is hazardous for one's health. The great thing about the Guardians is that I am pretty confident each of the five starters can stick in the rotation, barring injury and inning caps, the entire season. The worrisome thing about the Guardians is that beyond the starting-5, there is not great depth. Here's hoping that Carlos Carrasco is OK sticking around in Columbus as the sixth starter and that some of the other arms are able to patch whatever rotation holes pop up in the schedule. Overall, this should still be a Top 8-12 MLB rotation (let's judge it by FIP & fWAR at the end of the year).There are still quite a few big names available in free agency despite pitchers and catchers already reporting. Do you foresee any major additions/changes to the current roster before Opening Day?Milner: At this point, I don’t. The team is trying to avoid potential lateral moves that could prevent them from finding answers to long-term questions. It also didn’t help that the free agent market and potential trades weren’t slam-dunk options that could solve it immediately like most fans would hope. Unless something unforeseen happens, I’m not expecting them other than trying to sort things out internally.Gerbs: The only moves I could see happening is if the front office sees a spot where they could shuffle off a middle infielder. Injuries happen a lot, especially as guys get started and ramp up, and while I hope it doesn't happen in our clubhouse, inevitably it will happen somewhere. As far as additions to ours, it would be something small if there was anything at all. The players available are either out of the price range for the organization (Cody Bellinger and JD Martinez) or not enough of an upgrade over in-house options and/or guys they wanna observe put it all together.Corey: For better or worse, no. No team makes national headlines with the story "young player putting the quiet work in during the offseason." Flashy signings always steal the show. And not to overly apologize for the front office, but last year the three highest payroll teams in MLB - Yankees, Mets, and Padres - all missed the playoffs. So it might not be necessary to bring in new folks barring injury or someone they just cannot pass up.Chris: This eleventh-hour free agency stuff is such a bummer. The hot stove cooked a little this year around the majors, but the drip feed since the calendar flipped to 2024 has been painful. That being said, maybe there is a fringe guy out there that is trying to hold out for a major-league contract that the Guardians will soon scoop up with a spring invite and an out if they don't make the roster. They're not getting Bellinger, and they don't really need any other available hitter (maybe they throw Amed Rosario a line for his sake?) or a starting pitcher. I throw a dart at Brad Hand coming back into the fold. It could happen!Bode: No. Free agency was a wretched minefield of options that some wanted to cling onto because they see obvious holes (as do I) and wanted to DO SOMETHING. But, sometimes doing something is worse than doing nothing. At least the young prospects have potential... most of the players who have signed and are left (outside a precious few with big contracts) are Just A Guy (JAG). The time to make a move was the last couple of trade deadlines with prospects, not over-paying mid-veterans to block those same prospects that were held onto.The Guardians are starting anew with a rookie manager in Stephen Vogt. What, if any, lineup construction differences do you expect from what was expected with Tito in charge?Milner: That is the million-dollar question. For a decade of the franchise, we knew everything about Tito Francona, from his favorite bubble gum, his favorite types of players, and his in-game strategies. All we know about Stephen Vogt is that he can do a mean Chris Farley impression, which every media member has bugged him about. Spring training will not give us many answers, and heck, even in his first year, we won’t get a complete grasp on who he wants to be as a manager. My only expectation is that his style of managing will be a bit more modern, with both his familiarity with analytics and relying on his experience as a player. Still, otherwise, he’s a very clean slate.Gerbs: Maybe less staunchness?, which is such a funny thing to think of Tito being the hard ass in situations, but with regards to lineup construction, he was a stickler for things. Francona always split up handedness, and kept Jose Ramirez locked into hitting third despite the numbers indicating how much more he might have impacted the lineup by hitting second. Oh, and Myles Straw will likely be relegated to the bench. The last of the Tito Boyzz.Corey: *Shrugs* I'm not sure if Vogt even knows at this point. I expect to see some experimental lineups in Arizona this month as he tries to figure things out. He's not a product of a particular manager's tutelage so there is no rubric for how he'll manage a game. We'll all find out together.Chris: I think this is it: This is the year Jose Ramirez bats second most of the time. Whatever Vogt does with platoons and matchups and alternating righty-lefty, there's probably not a ton that won't be rewarded or ruined by how the big guys swing the bat, and the biggest little guy in baseball is Ramirez. While the Naylors and Andres Gimenez are expected to have good seasons, the best hitter in a modern MLB lineup is supposed to hit second to maximize plate appearances and chase two-run homers behind Steven Kwan. Ramirez is the ultimate in modern MLB efficiency at the plate, taking walks, hitting dingers and doubles, and rarely striking out. Add in his knack for the stolen base and overall Hall-of-Fame baserunning instincts, and he can reliably set the table and move around to score in front of anyone. We don't know how much longer we'll get to see Prime JoRam, but I expect to see him after Kwan this year.Bode: The complaints will be "first-time manager doesn't know what he's doing" instead of "veteran manager is stuck in his ways," so it'll be nice to have new complaints, I suppose. But, complaints we will have as baseball fans and bickering over minutia in the lineup card filling is as old as the game itself.Who is your player to watch as Spring Training unfolds?Milner: Estevan Florial; he has intrigued me ever since the Cody Morris trade went down. He has only 46 total games with 115 ABs to his name but has untapped potential with his power and speed. Since he is also out of options, we might see him playing a lot in centerfield, taking away ABs from Myles Straw, which I know everyone is all for at this point. The question that needs to be answered with him is it is about finally getting an opportunity to play with him or if he’s truly a pumpkin the New York Yankees were okay with letting go.Gerbs: Deyvison De Los Santos. This first base situation has been all in a tizzy because of the weirdness of it all. We know Josh Naylor will be in the lineup every day as either the DH or playing first, and after the trade for Kyle Manzardo last year, we all had it locked up that he would be his partner. Then all heck broke loose when they acquired De Los Santos, especially considering the way they did. Having to keep a 20-year-old player who has never played above Double-A on the roster all season is a task that I can't see happening, given his limitations and the position crunch. I hope he continues to hit tank jobs out of spring training ball fields, but if the hit tool isn't there, he is gonna be back in Arizona sooner rather than later. At least they have Manzardo.Corey: At the risk of being too saccharine, Carlos Carrasco. He'll turn 37 on March 21 and last year had a 6.80 ERA in 90 innings for the Mets. With the roster mostly set his best bet is to get a long relief spot out of the bullpen. Stories like these don't usually end well, but it would be wonderfully poetic if Cookie found enough juice in that right arm to come home to the club where he played 11 seasons. I'll be pulling for him.Chris: My heart wants to say Carlos Carrasco, but I'm not gonna get my hopes up just that high yet. I'll go with Deyvison De Los Santos, the 20-year-old Rule 5 pick from Arizona. He's listed as a third baseman, but that spot might be blocked, so I'm interested to see how much time he gets at first base or a corner outfield spot. But I'm EXCITED to see how that young right-handed power bat plays after swing adjustments last year. I haven't been this excited about a low-risk right-handed bat added by Cleveland since they signed Casey Blake to a deal in 2002. Ah, the throwaway 2000s years of just trying to find anyone to play and hoping they could average over 20 home runs a season. If DDLS can hit anywhere close to that well in Cleveland, he's not going near Arizona (until next spring; the Diamondbacks come to Cleveland for a series in August).Bode: Chase Burns and Nicky 'Nukes' Kurtz are my players to watch in February and March. I expect the Guardians to be a good team in 2024 (we'll get there in the preseason predictions), and there are some good players to watch such as all of those already mentioned, Brayan Rocchio, Bieber's velocity, and the Naylors together. But, the Cleveland Guardians have the No. 1 overall selection in the June draft, so watching Wake Forest teammates Burns & Kurtz duke it out to determine who goes first overall is the biggest watch party for me.