The Guardians Three True Outcomes Offseason

The offseason can be a trying time for Guardians fans. It’s easy to get mad at the business of baseball when one team pays Shohei Ohtani $700 million for 10 years (in an admittedly wild contract structure) and your team can’t pay Cal Quantrill $6.6 million, but it all makes sense around Spring Training, for better or worse. Still, we ask questions until we have answers. We’re curious like that, us fans.Are they competing for the division, and thus holding onto their best pitching (and trade) assets, while adding to the offense in whatever way they can afford? Are they “tanking” this year away, not adding major league talent, but instead trading Shane Bieber and Emmanuel Clase (and maybe Josh Naylor?) for prospects that are close to the majors, but not quite major league ready? Now that Glasnow is traded to the Dodgers, does that shake up the pitching market enough to get a better idea of Bieber’s value? Could Clase get you a major-league hitter? Are they pulling a 2002, trying to thread the needle between rebuild and compete? This would be where they keep enough talent around to stay in most games, but don’t add anyone of note to help at this point, instead waiting to see where the team is at at the trade deadline. The moves they have made so far point around this direction. I wouldn’t say the wind is blowing this way, but the rooster on the top of the barn has settled itself in this direction.But what is it, exactly, that this team is trying to do right now? Let’s dig into every mid-to-major transaction this offseason to figure that out. (Sorry, we will not be going over Alfonso Rivas or Rule 5 protections here.) Transactions will be sorted into one of three piles: a win-now move, a tank-now move, and a thread-the-needle middle-ground move.November 6th: The Guardians claim catcher Christian Bethancourt on waivers from Tampa Bay. A solid addition if for no other reason than his 74 OPS+ (26% below league average as a hitter) quite significantly outpaces the DFA’d and elected-free-agent Cam Gallagher’s -9 OPS+ from last year. Yes, a negative OPS+, and somehow it looked worse at the plate than the numbers suggest. We’ll file this as a win-now move as it clearly improves a problem spot on the roster at backup catcher.November 14th, 17th: Cal Quantrill was designated for assignment, then traded to the Rockies for catcher Kody Huff. Alright, here’s where I get scared. Quantrill wasn’t projected to be a top 5 starter on the team, so maybe his projected $6.6 million salary in arbitration was too rich for a have-not team like Cleveland, but he had to be worth something more than an A-ball prospect with little pedigree, right? EXPLAIN YOURSELF, CHRIS ANTONETTI. Tank-nowNovember 17th: Cleveland trades reliever Enyel De Los Santos to the Padres for reliever Scott Barlow. Alright, this is an explanation from Antonetti: “Had we not made the move with Cal, I’m not sure we would have been able to acquire Scott.” Well, thank you for being quick on the reply. Barlow is an improvement as a setup man (or maybe insurance for something else…) and makes a chunk of money at a projected arbitration number of $7.1 million in his final year of control before free agency. This is a win-now move as currently constructed, but that Antonetti quote looms large over the rest of the offseason.December 1st: The Yankees claim Oscar Gonzalez on waivers from the Guardians. This is mostly just weird timing. When Gonzalez was placed on waivers is not even on the transaction list on the team website. For a few days, this looked like a move before the bigger move to Guardians' social media followers, but really it was more just a show of how far the 2022 hero had fallen in the team’s eyes. Jonathan Rodriguez seems poised to take up the exact space Good Oscar Gonzalez left behind. No one significant is added or lost. This move simply threads-the-needle. December 6th: 3B/1B/DH Deyvison De Los Santos is chosen in the major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft by the Guardians via the Diamondbacks. Okay. What the hell? MLB.com ranked DDLS as the number 5 prospect in the Arizona system, but he hasn’t played above Double-A. He has a big power bat potential from the right side, but he essentially plays the same position as Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Kyle Manzardo. He has to remain on the 26-man roster the whole season or be offered back to Arizona. While I love the idea of getting our own version of Anthony Santander (the Orioles Rule 5 drafted him from Cleveland in 2016 and stashed him on the injured list for most of the year), I don’t know how this helps the team this year, unless the swing changes DDLS made last year are so drastic that he can hit big league pitching right now. Thread-the-needle, in a confusing way as of right now.December 12th: The Guardians sign right-handed starter Ben Lively to a one-year major league deal for $750k. Another move that had social anticipating a follow-up transaction, this looks like more of depth starter/long relief guy than anyone that would necessitate trading Shane Bieber. More likely, this frees up Xzavion Curry to focus on either being fully a starter or fully a reliever. Fun trivia though, this is the first starting pitching free agent to be signed to a major league deal by Cleveland since Gavin Floyd in 2014. Floyd would not start a game for Cleveland. Win-now because it’s a major league pitcher and you can never have enough pitching.December 15th: Cleveland signs catcher Austin Hedges to a one-year, $4 million deal. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder with this move. Obviously not with Hedges’s body, which is peak male form, but with his body of work and the money he is being paid. With the Antonetti quote in mind, what makes a backup catcher who can’t really hit worth $4 million? (Bethancourt was traded to Miami after this signing was completed, so that saves about $2 million to go towards Hedges. Still counting his claiming as win-now.) Hedges brings good vibes and leadership to the clubhouse, while providing good defense and great pitcher rapport on the field. Bieber used him as his personal catcher, and Hedges should hit a lot better than Bieber’s last personal catcher, Cam Gallagher. But the bat has been very bad for a long time. Hedges hasn’t had an OPS+ over 50 since 2018, meaning he has been at least 50% below league average every year since then. He hasn’t hit over .200 in a season since 2018 either. So you’re paying for defense and leadership almost exclusively, and maybe this team needs that more than anything. It’s fair to question if the leadership of the players in house were seen internally as a major cause of the overall team regression from 2022 to 2023 if this front office thinks leadership is worth $4 million. A rookie manager also needs as much help leading as he can get. But for a team that needed to trade $6.6 million in order to spend $7.1 million, you have to wonder where else it is possible to spend money. The offense still needs improvement, the bullpen could always use another arm, and while the rotation looks great if they keep Bieber, can they afford to pay him his projected $12 million arbitration number with his and the other starters’ injury risks? Or will he need to be traded to make any further additions in salary? For these reasons and questions, I see this move as falling into win-now and tank-now. If they keep Bieber and build on the rest of the roster, this is a win-now move for leadership and playoff experience. If they trade Bieber and/or others for prospects or unproven players without also replacing with major league talent, this is a tank-now move for leadership to keep the ship steady through a rough sea of a season.And that’s it, that’s the list so far this offseason. They added Hedges and DDLS and Lively, but they still need a bat. Barlow sures up the backend of the bullpen, or he becomes the closer if Clase is dealt. They seem to be listening to offers on Bieber and Clase, but they aren’t necessarily shopping them. Josh Naylor has been brought up in rumors, but with two years of control and coming off his breakout season, that seems unlikely barring a big trade package, especially for a team needing more offense itself. If any of those players get traded, this list looks much different, and we would have clearer answers to all of our questions. But for now, the tally goes:Win-now: 4, with Hedges in this and tankTank-now: 2Thread-the-needle: 2It looks like the Guardians are trying to add talent in creative ways. While offseason rumors fly, no emergency podcast moves have been made, other than maybe getting the number 1 pick in the draft lottery. It’s tough to wait and see for so long, but such is life in an MLB offseason. If we check back in a couple months and this list hasn’t changed, then I’ll panic. Until then, I’ll trust the front office knows what it’s doing, even when I can’t see it clearly.