Cleveland Guardians 2024 Preseason Top 30 Prospects; 26-30
Ladies and gentlemen, it's the middle of December and you know what that means. If your mind jumped to Christmas you're clearly new here. I am of course talking about the beginning of the 2024 edition of Farmer Ethan's Almanac, taking a look at the Cleveland Guardians farm system, ranking my top 30 prospects, and guessing who might make an impact at the big league level in 2024. With the Winter Meetings behind us, and the Guardians' payroll not expected to increase much beyond their 2023 total, we are left with nothing but speculation about the rest of the offseason.That makes it the perfect time — at least in my mind — to discuss prospects! New acquisitions, re-evaluation of 2023 draft picks, adjusted criteria, oh my. There are more than a few differences in my top 30 since we last updated the list around the All-Star Break in July, and rather than 30 individual reports this season we'll be doing batches of five at a time, slowly building towards pitchers and catchers reporting in February, and with enough time built in to make adjustments if any unforeseen trades occur as these are rolled out. Before we get to number 30, I'd first like to highlight my first five out, and then we'll hit the ground running!
First Five Out
#35. Doug Nikhazy - LHP2023 Stats (AA): 26 G (22 GS), 4-8, 102 IP, 4.94 ERA, 73 BB (15.4%), 128 K (27%), 1.62 WHIP, 4.69 FIP
#34. Jake Fox - 2B/OF2023 Stats (A+): 101 G, 453 PAs, .256/.330/.398, 23 2B, 5 3B, 8 HR, 45 BB (9.9%), 103 K (22.7%), 105 wRC+
#33. Jose Devers - 3B/SS2023 Stats (A): 111 G, 458 PAs, .252/.345/.398, 15 2B, 11 HR, 34 SB, 48 BB (10.5%), 92 K (20.1%), 113 wRC+
#32. Rafael Ramirez Jr. - SS2023 Stats (CPX): 41 G, 190 PAs, .250/.453/.426, 6 2B, 4 HR, 6 SB, 50 BB (26.3%), 54 K (28.4%), 133 wRC+
#31. Bryan Lavastida - C2023 Stats (AA, AAA): 108 G, 465 PAs, .240/.341/.378, 18 2B, 12 HR, 16 SB, 56 BB (12%), 85 K (18.3%), 92 wRC+
#30. Joe Lampe - OF
2023 Stats (A+): 111 G, 459 PAs, .235/.336/.332, 17 2B, 5 HR, 21 SB, 54 BB (11.8%), 89 K (19.4%), 94 wRC+
Only time will tell if my bizarre infatuation with Joe Lampe is warranted or not. The former Sun Devil and 2022 third-round pick has the makings of a true leadoff hitter and center fielder with elite speed for the base paths and outfield grass, advanced approach and plate discipline, the lauded contact ability the Guardians covet and possesses more power than his disappointing 2023 season would lead you to believe. Now hear me out, I know the season totals aren’t the sexiest numbers you’ve ever seen, nor do they correlate to the type of player I described that Lampe could be, but the year wasn’t completely devoid of positives.In his first full professional season, Lampe was at least able to showcase his excellent approach and plate discipline, posting a healthy 11.8% walk rate while keeping strikeouts below 20%. Lampe also finished 5th among qualified players in the Guardians organization for lowest SwStr% at 8.8%. Alright, those are all excellent numbers for a 22-year-old making his professional debut, a tough out with a .336 OBP and wheels to be a threat on the bases, but what went wrong for Lampe, and what does it look like when it’s clicking for him?Lampe is predominantly a pull hitter from the left-handed batters box, but in the age of shift restrictions that doesn’t help explain his 2023 season. The bigger issue was his 45.1% ground ball rate on the season, something that makes showcasing underrated power nearly impossible when you smoke nearly half of your balls in play straight into the dirt. However, Lampe gave us a glimpse of what he can be when he puts it all together. From April 6th to May 1st, a sample size of 18 games, Lampe slashed .348/.416/.493 with six extra-base hits, four stolen bases, eight walks (10.4%), 11 strikeouts (14.3%), and a 157 wRC+ in 77 PAs, including a 19 pitch at-bat that ultimately ended up a strikeout.[embed]https://twitter.com/LCCaptains/status/1652394732562141185?s=20[/embed]I doubt anyone expected Lampe to be as inconsistent as he was the rest of the season for Lake County after his scorching hot start, but that’s the version of Lampe that piques my interest. I expect the development staff to help him adjust his swing to generate some extra loft, and if Lampe can cut back on the ground balls he should be a standout player at Double-A Akron in 2024.
#29. Ethan Hankins - RHP
2023 Stats (A+): 15 GS, 1-7, 46 IP, 4.70 ERA, 26 BB (12.9%), 50 K (24.9%), 1.39 WHIP, 4.01 FIP
I have waited a long time to put Ethan Hankins back on this list. Entering this past season the 2018 first-round pick and former top-10 prospect had only pitched one professional inning since the end of 2019 after the pandemic canceled the 2020 Minor League season and undergoing Tommy John surgery in May of 2021. Hankins was making a name for himself as a standout player at Cleveland's alternate site during 2020, featuring a mid-to-upper-90s fastball with so much natural movement he struggled to command it at times, a slider just starting to flash plus-plus, paired with an above-average curveball and changeup. The knock on Hankins had long been command and conditioning/stamina, and after 2023 I feel confident he has regained that luster of a highly-touted pitching prospect with concerns about his stamina.The Guardians left the 23-year-old off the 40-man roster and unprotected during the Rule 5 draft, and fortunately, no one took a flier on Hankins after his bounce-back 2023. I know the overall numbers aren't the prettiest thing to look at, but they don't tell the full story. He only made it five starts back with High-A Lake County, spanning just 10 innings pitched with a 14.40 ERA before Hankins was shelved with a forearm strain. After his return on July 9th, he looked every bit the dominant pitching prospect he was before his injury. Hankins started 10 games down the stretch, logging 36 innings with a 2.00 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and 3.67 FIP, cutting his walk rate back slightly to 10.7% and allowing a .183 BAA. He also stranded 81.6% of baserunners over that period.[embed]https://twitter.com/CleGuardPro/status/1695692575540211759?s=20[/embed]Hankins should enter 2024 healthy and with eyes set on Double-A Akron. He doesn't seem to have been affected too adversely by Tommy John surgery and his overall ceiling doesn't seem to have changed much. I'm keeping him low on the list for now while I wait to see the results of his offseason work, but as long as he stays healthy the conditioning will come and Hankins should re-enter the conversation of best arms in the system. The organization, as it does with all of their pitching prospects, will treat Hankins with kid gloves and likely won't move him too quickly through the system, but if he handles Akron well he will be climbing this list quickly.
#28. Aaron Bracho - INF
2023 Stats (AA): 104 G, 424 PAs, .245/.340/.441, 14 2B, 18 HR, 49 BB (11.6%), 97 K (22.9%), 115 wRC+
Not dissimilar from Hankins' 2023 the payoff for Aaron Bracho's 2023 season was well worth the wait. Bracho hasn't been injured, but he'd yet to take the next step in his development after the Guardians signed him out of Venezuela for $1.5 million in 2017. Bracho was a different player this past season for a variety of reasons. Still, the two major factors to his strong season were some added muscle — coming into the season at 5-foot-9 and 193 pounds — that showed up in the box score and abandoning switch-hitting very early in the season, batting almost exclusively left-handed in 2023.The results should be considered a triumph in every sense. Bracho hadn't reached Double-A before this season, and as a 22-year-old set a career-high in home runs (18) while raising his walk rate by 2.2% and cutting his strikeout rate by nearly 8% from his 2022 totals with High-A Lake County. While Bracho did most of his damage against right-handed pitching (.257/.354/.491 over 314 plate appearances), he saw a healthy amount of left-handed pitchers too (.213/.295/.309 over 105 PAs) which was an improvement over his 2022 line as a right-handed bat against southpaws (.154/.220/.269 over 59 PAs).[embed]https://twitter.com/AkronRubberDuck/status/1694114144738283648?s=20[/embed]Bracho finally flashed the 20-plus home run potential many believed he possessed when the Guardians signed him. As a predominant pull-hitter with a compact swing and attack angle that leads to a ton of fly balls (51.3%) Bracho has the potential to pepper the right-field bleachers and pick on any short porch in the game. He doesn't have noteworthy speed on the bases or in the field, and he split time fairly evenly between first, second, and third base defensively last season. The resurgence was excellent to see, and he'll be on breakout watch in 2024, but he will only go as far as his bat will carry him.
#27. Angel Genao - SS
2023 Stats (A): 72 G, 316 PAs, .263/.345/.385, 20 2B, 4 HR, 34 BB (10.8%), 49 K (15.5%), 110 wRC+
Angel Genao, perhaps as much as any player currently in the system, is the definition of the player model the Guardians target in international free agency. An up-the-middle prospect with an advanced bat and approach, a projectible frame, and little to power early on. It was enough of a profile for the Guardians to sign him in January of 2021 for $1.175 million out of the Dominican Republic. Genao's calling card, more similar to Brayan Rocchio's, is a combination of contact skills, a high baseball IQ, and the talent to stick at shortstop as he grows and climbs the ranks.In his age-19 season, Genao spent all of 2023 with Low-A Lynchburg and demonstrated just how advanced and effective his approach was in the Arizona Complex League when he finished 7th for the batting title hitting .322 in 38 games as an 18-year-old. He set career bests in 2023 in doubles (20, nearly doubling his 11 total in his professional career entering the season), home runs (4), and ISO (.122), and finished with the third-lowest SwStr% in the system at 7.6%. While sample sizes differ he was equally effective from both sides of the plate in 2023, slashing .263/.350/.364 in 260 plate appearances from the left and .260/.321/.480 in 56 plate appearances from the right. While only a small sample size it's an encouraging sign for a teenager to prove effective in any matchup.[embed]https://twitter.com/FLProspectPod/status/1686900780375166977?s=20[/embed]It's to be determined if Genao can add some extra power, and it's fair to question it based on Cleveland's track record with this philosophy, but if he does manage to find 10-15 home run power he could find himself on some top-100 lists. He's a legitimate multi-tool player with better speed than his 2023 numbers suggest, but Genao's 5-foot-9 150-pound frame will need to develop some more before we can truly determine if there's a budding star in there. He won't turn 20 until May so there's plenty of development time left, but there's a lot to be excited about.
#26. C.J. Kayfus - 1B/OF
2023 Stats (A): 17 G, 77 PAs, .271/.429/.542, 4 2B, 4 HR, 5 SB, 15 BB (19.5%), 12 K (15.6%), 171 wRC+
You're going to hear me talk about Cleveland's contact-and-approach-over-power philosophy ad nauseam throughout this series, and you've already heard it a ton if you've read my previous write-ups (or anyone that covers Cleveland's farm system for that matter). Fitting right into that mold once again is 22-year-old C.J. Kayfus, a 2023 third-round selection of the Guardians out of Miami. Kayfus, the Hurricanes' 2022 team MVP and All-ACC Second Team first baseman, slashed .350/.453/.548 throughout his three collegiate seasons en route to joining the Guardians late in 2023.Kayfus didn't miss a beat in his transition to professional ball, albeit in a very small sample size. He was known for an elite approach at the plate and excellent, well-rounded contact ability from the left-handed batter's box. He put all of that on display for Low-A Lynchburg when he drew more walks than he struck out and even flashed some power with half of his 16 hits going for extra bases. It was a welcome site for many in the organization, especially for a player capable of playing two major positions of need for Cleveland.[embed]https://twitter.com/CleGuardPro/status/1690549547733299200?s=20[/embed]Kayfus is a bit of a strange case. Well, maybe not for the Guardians since his profile is exactly what they like to target, but it's not a profile that lends itself particularly well to first base or the corner outfield positions. While Kayfus has decent size at 6-foot 192 pounds it's not certain how much more he has to grow into, or if he'll be capable of more than 15 home runs per year. The lack of plus power makes Kayfus a mismatch for his current positions and will keep him in the lower third of this list until he can prove me otherwise, but his approach alone is worthy of a top-30 ranking.