Farmer Ethan's Almanac: Cleveland Guardians "Mid"-Season Top 30 Prospects
With the 2023 MLB draft in the books, the picks signed, and dust from the Trade Deadline (mostly) settled, it's time to revisit my top 30 prospects series that led into the season. We've had graduations, newcomers, and surprises. Oh my. The youngest team in baseball in 2022 once again got younger at the 2023 deadline and added at least one high-level talent to the upper ranks of the farm system.Leading up to the season I did 30 individual prospect reports (31 if you count the trade halfway through), so we're going to try a different format this time, but I'll still publish a numerical list at the bottom. There are a lot of players to talk about, and without doing 30 individual write-ups (again) I'll highlight different players as we go. Without taking any more of your time, let's get started.
The Graduates (50 IP or 50 PAs)
#4. Bo Naylor, C#6. Tanner Bibee, RHP#7. Logan Allen, LHP#13. Xzavion Curry, RHP#14. Gabriel Arias, SS/RF/1B#16. Will Brennan, OFDue to extended injured list stints by all of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, and Cal Quantrill, as well as the inevitable cutting of ties with Zach Plesac, the Cleveland Guardians were forced to replace every member of the planned opening day rotation with rookies and organizational depth. ((Editor's note: and Noah Syndergaard in a weird trade.)) Fortunately for Cleveland, pitching development is still the backbone of the organization. Similar to how 2016 draftees Bieber, Civale, and Plesac all debuted in the same season, the Guardians rotation has been carried by three members of the 2020 and 2021 draft classes, highlighted by 2021 fifth-round pick Tanner Bibee.Bibee finished an impressive July, going 3-0 in 5 starts spanning 30.1 innings with a 1.78 ERA. So far in his rookie campaign, he's tallied a 7-2 record in 17 starts, covering 94.2 innings with a 3.14 ERA, walking 8.8% of batters, striking out 23.9%, holding opponents to a .238 BAA, and strong FIP (3.87) and ERA- (73). Bibee should be at the forefront of American League Rookie of the Year conversations, and he's getting better with each passing start.[embed]https://twitter.com/CLE_STATS/status/1683997134629277696?s=20[/embed]Not to be outdone, Logan Allen has pieced together a 4-4 record in 15 starts with a 3.70 ERA over the span of 80.1 innings. Allen is currently in his second stint with the Major League club this season after a demotion for the joint purposes of inning management and making adjustments but appears to be sticking as a key member of the rotation going forward. Allen's sweeper/splitter/changeup competition keeps batters guessing, and when he's on he's nearly unhittable. He has been stung by some exceptionally hard contact in some starts, but that's part of learning.
The Cutting Room Floor
#25. Isaiah Greene, OF#28. Jack Leftwich, RHP#29. Trenton Denholm, RHP#30. Peyton Battenfield, RHPWhether they were displaced by newcomers or underperformed, every updated list features a group that no longer makes the cut. Despite making his Major League debut in 2023, Peyton Battenfield falls out of the top 30, largely due to the surplus of better arms ahead of him. Pitching is a tough market to break into down on the Cleveland farm, but that doesn't mean he is completely without value; he may serve as a valuable bullpen arm down the stretch.[embed]https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1654639719286816771?s=20[/embed]Denholm suffered a similar fate. Despite a promotion to High-A Lake County for 2023 he's largely been relegated to the bullpen (just five starts in 16 appearances), which isn't a spot I'm comfortable his high-80s/barely low-90s fastball will play in the upper minors, let alone the big leagues. Cleveland has been able to add notable velocity to a handful of arms in recent years, it remains to be seen if Denholm has any breakout potential still packed into his smaller frame.Leftwich and Greene (.162/.290/.285 in 41 games at High-A Lake County) on the other hand fall victim to disappointing underperformances. Leftwich was promoted to Double-A Akron to start 2023 where he's put up a 6.26 ERA in 15 games (10 starts), watched his strikeout stuff from 2022 vanish (29% in 2022 to 21% in 2023), and his home run rate more than double. Growing pains are par for the course, but Leftwich's regression has alarmed me enough to slide him off the table for now. I always believed his potential was better in the bullpen, so maybe that's the next logical change.
The Risers
#3. Chase DeLauter, OF (from #8)#7. Joey Cantillo, LHP (#17)#10. Juan Brito, 2B (#18)#13. Parker Messick, LHP (#21)Chase DeLauter, 24 GP, .365/.433/.600, 14, 2B, 2 HR, 5 SB, 10 BB (10.3%), 13 K (13.4%), 175 wRC+I originally wanted to put the 16th overall pick from the 2022 draft higher than eight way back in the winter, but the early reports about his recovery from the foot injury that ended his collegiate career weren't very optimistic he would play in 2023. Rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. Although a small sample between the complex league and High-A Lake County, the competition doesn't look like it's enough for the five-tool outfielder, and it's increasingly likely he sees Akron before the year is out as long as he stays healthy. DeLauter was advertised as being able to do it all in college, and it appears to be true.[embed]https://twitter.com/CleGuardPro/status/1685132539432681472?s=20[/embed]Juan Brito, 87 GP, .289/.385/.448, 20 2B, 10 HR, 6 SB, 51 BB (13.5%), 64 K, (16.9%), 132 wRC+Brito, the return for Nolan Jones during the offseason, has made a ton of noise in his first season with Cleveland, even drawing lofty comparisons to Jose Ramirez. I have my concerns about where Brito will fit on the diamond, as he's still a bit of an adventure defensively in a system flooded with middle infielders, but I know one thing for certain; he's a threat with a bat. With a walk-rate above 11% at every level of the minors, a wRC+ never below 126, and double-digit home runs in 2022, and now 2023, the Guardians found a diamond in the rough after this trade was not well-received out of the gate.
The Fallers
#8. Daniel Espino, RHP (from #1)#14. Justin Campbell, RHP (#11)#30. Jose Tena, 2B/SS (#12)Nearly immediately before I published Daniel Espino's write-up in March the news that he wouldn't pitch in the first half of 2023 was everywhere. Then the other shoe dropped. In May of this year, Espino underwent right shoulder surgery to repair his anterior capsule (the same surgery Bieber underwent in 2021) and will be out for the next 12-14 months. When Espino next takes the mound he won't have pitched in a professional game since April 29, 2022. He is just 22, but that's a lot of missed development time, and there's no telling how the surgery could have impacted his explosive stuff. For now, I wait with baited breath and bank on his youth that he rebounds and gets back on track.Jose Tena, 81 GP, .260/.353/.370, 20 2B, 4 HR, 16 SB, 41 BB (11.3%), 104 K (28.7%), 103 wRC+Am I being too hasty with Tena? I'm not a strong believer in his bat despite the raw power, and a slow start to 2023 in Double-Akron after reaching Triple-A last year moved him nearly completely off my radar. And yet just this week as I was doing my prep to put this together, Tena was promoted up to Columbus once again. The walk rate is healthy, strikeouts are stable, and while he hasn't quite tapped into his power yet this year, he keeps proving me wrong. I leave him on the backend for now hoping he puts it all together and is able to separate himself from the rest of the logjam. He is barely 22, after all.[embed]https://twitter.com/CleGuardPro/status/1687244701529677824?s=20[/embed]
The Newcomers
#4. Kyle Manzardo, 1B (Trade)#5. Welbyn Frnacisca, 2B/SS (International FA)#15. Dayan Frias, 3B/SS#16. Johnathan Rodriguez, OF#17. Ralphy Velasquez, C (2023 1st Rd Pick)#18. Wuilfredo Antunez, OF#23. Will Dion, LHP#26. Angel Zarate, OF#28. CJ Kayfus, OF (2023 3rd Rd Pick)Kyle Manzardo, 73 GP, .238/.342/.442, 19 2B, 11 HR, 42 BB (13.4%), 65 K (20.8%), 93 wRC+The Guardians abandoned their traditional quantity-over-quality approach at the 2023 deadline and went 1:1 with the Tampa Bay Rays, acquiring a top-40 prospect in all of baseball for Aaron Civale. Manzardo is regarded as one of the best pure hitters in the Minor Leagues featuring elite contact ability, zone awareness, above-average power, healthy exit velocities, and a combined 74.3% line drive and fly ball rate. Although he's working his way back from a shoulder injury Manzardo figures to fit into Cleveland's plans sooner rather than later after the club traded Josh Bell to the Miami Marlins at the last minute. He's a prospect Cleveland has needed in the upper minors for a few years now.[embed]https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1670643754120650754?s=20[/embed]Welbyn Francisca, 34 GP, .341/.439/.538, 7 2B, 3 HR, 11 SB, 20 BB (12.9%), 33 K (21.3%), 155 wRC+I think I'm insane. Francisca was born in 2006. He just turned 17. But goodness is this kid special. Francisca signed in January for $1.375M out of the Dominican Republic. He's a switch hitter with one of the highest ceilings in the 2023 international class with the bat, and looks to be gifted with a glove as well. Francisca features extremely advanced zone awareness and contact ability for a teenager. At 5-foot-8 and 148 pounds it's unclear how much power he could potentially tap into, but if Cleveland's prospect blueprint has taught us anything in the past it doesn't mean he won't be a top-tier talent if he doesn't develop game-breaking power. There's a long way for Francisca to go, but the ceiling is too high to ignore. He should come stateside in 2024, and it wouldn't shock me if he progresses to affiliate ball shortly after.Ralphy VelasquezVelasquez was the 23rd overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft. Don't let the fact that he's a catcher fool you, he was taken for his power potential and advanced feel at the plate as a prep hitter. The Guardians will give Velasquez the opportunity to stick at catcher, but I don't see it working out long-term. At just 18 years old he's an imposing 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, giving him plenty of frame to grow into. He's another left-handed bat, but in a perfect world (because prospecting so often is) he's designed to be an impact bat in the middle of a Major League batting order.If you've made it this far, no, I don't hate your favorite prospect. There are so many players still on the radar, and players I had a hard time excluding. Khalil Watson, Ethan Hankins, Yanki Baptiste, Guy Lipscomb just to name a few. Even a fully healthy Bryan Lavastida has worked his way back into the fold. There are impending graduations, roster churn, and constant changes that will see this list updated again at the end of the season, but for now, I post the full top 30 below. The List:1. Gavin Williams2. Brayan Rocchio3. Chase DeLauter4. Kyle Manzardo5. Welbyn Francisca6. George Valera7. Joey Cantillo8. Daniel Espino9. Angel Martinez10. Juan Brito11. Jaison Chourio12. Cody Morris13. Parker Messick14. Justin Campbell15. Dayan Frias16. Johnathan Rodriguez17. Ralphy Velasquez18. Wuilfredo Antunez19. Nate Furman20. Doug Nikhazy21. Tanner Burns22. Petey Halpin23. Will Dion24. Joe Lampe25. Jake Fox26. Angel Zarate27. Tommy Mace28. CJ Kayfus29. Jhonkensy Noel30. Jose Tena