Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
It may have snowed a little over the weekend, but baseball season is here. The Cleveland Guardians finished their first road trip of the campaign and are gearing up for the Home Opener with a 3-6 record. Last year, fans knew what the team was all about – scratch out runs with stolen bases, hard baserunning, a lockdown bullpen, and the best closer in baseball. Many of the same players are back this year, but it remains to be seen if those strengths will continue. With that in mind, let’s see how the Guards rank in a few major categories to figure out where they can distinguish themselves. Also, caveat caveat caveat the sample size is tiny with only nine games (or 5.6% of the season) in the books. (all statistics and rankings as of 12pm ET on Monday April 7)
Runs Per Game – 3.78
9th in AL, 18th overall
The league average for runs is 4.47 which means the Cleveland offense has been below the median so far. The Yankees are clubbing a preposterous 8.44 runs per game while Atlanta brings up the rear with 2.67. Cleveland suffered a 7-0 shutout on April Fool’s Day and their best offense output so far was in an 8-6 win against the Angels.
Home Runs – 13
4th in AL, 7th overall
If you dig the long ball, I have surprisingly good news. The Guardians have clubbed 13 round trippers in only nine games which ranks pretty high in the league so far. This team is not necessarily built for power, but the early returns from Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo are encouraging to say the least.
Sacrifice Flies – 7
1st in AL, 1st overall
Hey, it’s a team game. Seven of Cleveland’s 34 runs, 21%, are thanks to the sac fly which leads all of baseball. Ideally the team’s offense can come alive more and stop trading an out for a run, but it’s good to see the team displaying situational awareness. Interestingly the Phillies, A’s, and Braves have yet to record a sacrifice fly.
Runs allowed per game – 5.67
14th in AL, 27th overall
The pitching so far has been…let’s say uneven. The Guards’ arms are allowing 5.67 runs per game which is fourth worst in all of baseball. St. Louis is allowing a dreadful 6.78 runs per game while the Mets are surrendering a stingy 2.44. Hopefully returning home will help bring that number down a little as the pitchers settle into the groove of the season.
Strikeouts Recorded – 60
15th in AL, 30th overall
If it seems to you that the pitching staff is not recording many K’s, you’re spot on. The Guardians have struck out 60 opponents which is dead last in Major League Baseball so far, and almost half as many as the Dodgers’ 113. Time will tell if that is a function of playing some talented batters or if the Cleveland pitchers’ stuff is just not fooling anyone so far.
WHIP – 1.539
14th in AL, 27th overall
WHIP (walks + hits per inning pitched) is a great look at what one can expect from a random inning of baseball, the lower the number the better. Tampa Bay leads all of baseball with a 0.966 mark while Cleveland is very close to the bottom of the barrel. Too many hits, too many walks, too many runs allowed, and not enough strikeouts combine into a dangerous recipe.
Errors committed – 9
15th in AL, 30th overall
The Guardians have committed the most errors of any team in baseball so far, averaging one per game. There are many fancier defensive metrics nowadays and none of them are terribly flattering but there is nothing more encapsulating than to say, “Cleveland has yet to have an error-free game this year.”
These statistics and rankings paint a disquieting picture of the 2025 Cleveland Guardians season. The Guards’ best path back to the postseason relies on a dominant pitching staff and winning some close, low scoring games. So far that is not materializing. Fans should certainly not slam the panic button this close to the beginning of the year and this article could be a hilarious read by Memorial Day. Still, the numbers do not happily answer the question “what kind of team is this?” unless you like few strikeouts and lots of errors. Maybe a little chilly home weather will be just the ticket to get the pitchers back on point.