Guardians Starting Pitching Preview: The New Guy
Everything needs a facelift after so long. Legacy brands like Pepsi or Coca Cola don’t need to tweak much, but there are subtle differences over the years. Sometimes it’s major, like New Coke, and sometimes it’s just shifting the color blobs of the Pepsi circle. The Cuyahoga Pitching Factory LLC underwent a much-needed face lift this offseason, adding Luis L Ortiz, Slade Cecconi, Jakob Junis, and John Means to the roster while also re-signing free agent and former ace Shane Bieber. Junis is likely headed for a long relief/fireman role with the bullpen, but he is capable of starting, but the others are all likely to be in the rotation at some point in the season. Fitting them into spots and molding them with the guys already there will be the fun and interesting part, so in this series, I’ll take a look at the three groups of players that will be in the rotation mix this season. Today? The New Guy
The New Guy
Luis L Ortiz
2024 Stats: 7-6 win-loss record, 15 games started, 135.2 IP, 3.32 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 107Ks, 42BBs
On the surface, trading a player with the star potential of Andres Gimenez would bring back a player with a better track record than Ortiz. A one-win pitcher for a player that is just two years removed from an MVP-caliber season doesn’t compute a bunch, but we are not here to litigate the Gimenez trade. I did that already.
A big fastball, 95.4mph avg, 71st percentile per Baseball Savant, Ortiz didn’t do enough to play off the pace. Everything was similarly used, just slightly over quarter of usage for his slider, fastball, cutter, and cutter, which is nice in that you never know what’s coming as a hitter, but nothing was featured and stood out.
Ortiz is best used as a guy who can feature the fastball up, and try to get guys to chase with the breaking stuff down and in; a slider and a cutter to lefties, a sinker to righties. But nothing really slid, sunk or cut; everything was mostly belt-high. Cleveland is best at trying to maximize what players do best while limiting what they can’t do. While there was a massive improvement to the fastball on an xwOBA perspective from 2023 to 2024, (A .512 in 2023 to .302 in 2024) it should be featured more. Getting Ortiz in the lab and spinning with pitching coach Carl Willis will be a help.
Spring stats are fleeting, of course, but they are a mixed bag right now: in three starts, Ortiz has a 21.6% K-rate but a .364 average against and a 4.97 FIP. It would be nice to have Ortiz lock in a rotation spot this spring, one for the optics of being the prize of the Gimenez series of trades and two for the stability of the rotation. However, with two options still, he is a candidate to start in the minors if he’s beaten out. With Bibee, Williams, and McKenzie expected to be in the starting five due to performance and control, Ortiz needs to beat out Slade Cecconi and Ben Lively.
