Guardians Shuffling Chairs This Offseason
This is not the offseason that most fans had pegged for the Cleveland Guardians. You're expected to add to your roster when you finish in the ALCS, just a few wins and a quality start or two away from the World Series. However, when you factor in the modius operandi of the Cleveland front office, it makes sense that there have been moving parts in, out, and down. The moves the team has made could put a better team on the field for 2025, one that has more production from the offense and from the starting rotation, but it feels more like shuffling deck chairs than adding anything substantive.
Shane Bieber re-signed with the club on a one-year, $10 million deal with a player option for a second year in The Land at $16 million. If the option is declined, Bieber has a $4 million buyout. This is a great addition to the roster, the cost is in line with production [And maybe a little cheaper than expected, given the other deals free agent pitchers have gotten this winter.] as Bieber has been an ace for the team in the past, he looked every bit of it in the two starts he made in 2024 before needing Tommy John surgery, and it adds stability to the rotation. However, no one expects Bieber to be able to contribute on the field until late June/early July at the earliest. They will have to float along with their additions from other places or hope Ben Live doesn’t pumpkinize in 2025.
Finding either a trade away or playing time for the bevy of middle infield prospects was obviously a target of the front office, as players like Angel Martinez, Juan Brito, and Gabriel Arias are knocking on the door of the big league club, waiting to be let inside. However, no one expected Andres Gimenez to be the one dealt with. It’s been a rough few years at the plate for Gimenez, coming off his MVP-vote-getting season in 2022. With the quality and level of defense that Gimenez puts out, wRC+ years of 96 and 83 in the last two, respectively, are okay, but they pale in comparison to the 141 he had in 2022. One can assume that the front office saw something in the projections that made it apparent to them that those levels were not going to be achieved in the future and pulled the rip cord before his contract became unmanageable. And one can see a path where Brito or Martinez are capable of being league-average hitters despite lacking in the heights of defense that Gimenez can attain, but the trade-off of a former MVP candidate and fan-favorite player to an unproven Luis Ortiz in the rotation and prospects in the starting lineup is tenuous. You can see the idea, maybe even understand it, but still feel uneasy about it.
If we are going back to the MO of the ball club, the writing was on the wall as soon as no extension was coming for Josh Naylor. A $12m bill for a one-year player with apparent weight concerns was likely not going to come due in Cleveland. I love Josh Naylor and, as with Gimenez, will miss him being on my favorite team in 2025, but I understand the thought here: you already have Kyle Manzardo ready and waiting to take over at least half the games, and you can sign an old friend like Carlos Santana for the same money and get 80% of the offense with 50-60% better defense at the position. It’s not a full-on addition, it’s just moving things around that makes it make sense.
Both trades of Gimenez and Naylor brought back starting pitchers of varying levels of success and nothing feels certain there either. Luis Ortiz was the eventual return for Gimenez after Spencer Horwitz came from Toronto to get kicked down the road to Pittsburgh. Ortiz was used as a reliever for some of the season before being moved to the rotation for 15 starts. Coming out of 2024 with a 7.6% walk rate, a 3.32 ERA, 4.25 FIP, an opposing average of .216, and a 70th percentile extension, you can see where the Guardians are seeing a hidden gem. Slade Cecconi and a comp pick was the return for Naylor, and you’d have to really be careful with the head-scratching to make sure you don’t pierce the skull on this one if you’re looking at just 2024. Going into last season, Cecconi was the Diamondbacks’ fifth-ranked prospect, before making 13 starts and losing the prospect status. It’s obvious that there are things there for Cecconi, a 5.0% walk rate and an above-average extension, but the results were not there. The DBacks did not do him favors with his pitch mix, as they kept him fastball-heavy at 54.8% of his mix. Cleveland thrives on usage, and making him a “backwards” starter, throwing breaking stuff the majority of the time while still keeping the fastball as the most used, would do him wonders. However, it sucks to see a 30-HR bat go out the door to acquire a starter that may be in the minors to start the season if he can’t break the SP5/long-man logjam. A longjam if you will.
All of these moves, when looked at individually, feel like not enough. But if you look through the trees, you can see the plan the front office is working on. No one would blame you for thinking nothing of any substance has been done to a team that was routinely in the mix for best record in the majors in 2024 and made it within a few games of the World Series. The offseason isn’t over yet, and many other deck chairs can be tossed into the mix. Maybe another starter to lock in a spot, a right-hand bat to help take some pressure off Manzardo and others, or maybe we see more pull up from the minors. Whatever way you look at it, there could be more done to help the club, and there have been changes to the team that will make 2025 a different type of beast.
