WFNY Staff Chat - Cleveland Guardians Opening Day!

The final roster is set and Opening Day is here. Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges are the catchers, with David Fry as an occasional backup/pinch hitter. Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez, Jose Ramirez and Brayan Rocchio are the starters along the infield with Gabriel Arias backing them up. Steven Kwan, Tyler Freeman, and Will Brennan figure to get most of the playing time in the outfield with Estevan Florial and Ramon Laureano figuring into the DH spot and OF4/5. Myles Straw was placed on outright waivers over last weekend and will start the season in Triple-A Columbus as the team tries to figure out next steps. Deyvision De Los Santos did not make the roster and was returned to the Arizona Diamondbacks.Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and old friend Carlos Carrasco will be in the rotation to start off, with Tyler Beede, Hutner Gaddis, Eli Morgan, Nick Sandlin, Tim Herrin, Cade Smith, Scott Barlow, and Emmanuel Clase in the bullpen. Gavin Williams, Xzavion Curry, and Ben Lively are all going to start out the season on the injured list with an elbow injury for Williams and illnesses that sapped some weight and strength from Curry and Lively.

Two years ago Myles Straw was extended by the front office as the possible centerfielder of the future. Now he's off the 40-man and figures to be on a different team by the end of the year. Was it a matter of Tyler Freeman winning the job or Straw losing it?

Chris: Straw lost the job for sure, but not in Spring Training and not because Terry Francona retired. He lost it over the previous two seasons when he hit a total of one (1) home run between the two combined while seeing his stolen base total actually decrease from 2022 to 2023 despite him having a higher OBP and the rules and base size benefit in 2023 over 2022. Straw was always going to be a defense-first player, and did win a Gold Glove in 2022, but he had to provide some offense in the margins to be worth his contract. Instead, he posted a 65 and 69 OPS+, respectively, and for some reason seemed reluctant to to run when he did get on base. He simply hasn't been good enough to keep a starting job, despite plenty of at-bats. Bully for Freeman finally getting his chance, he earned it.Corey: It's a shame, but the blame lies with Straw. His defense remains strong, Gold Gloves don't just grow on trees y'know, but he had become such an offensive liability that the team could no longer ignore it. Last season he struck out (97) more than twice as many times as he drew a walk (42). Even when he got on base, he could not translate his speed into a significant number of stolen bases. His 20 swipes last season, even with adjusted rules to promote more theft, tied for 43rd in the league. Hopefully, he can find more of a stroke in Columbus and help out in case of injury.Bode: Straw did everything he could to keep a spot on the 2024 MLB roster during Spring Training, so it is clear that the Guardians' front office moved on from him after his play of the last two years. Moving Freeman and Angel Martinez (AAA) to center field is more a consequence of Straw losing his spot than a reason he lost his spot.Matt: I feel like it was a mixture of both. That benefit of the doubt that existed in 2023 is now dead and buried under two years of data that screams, “He’s not an everyday player!” It wasn’t a coincidence that Tyler Freeman was getting starts in center field this spring, pretty much reinforcing it, on top of him hitting well and looking the part fielding-wise. They found the perfect excuse to end the Myles Straw experience, and Freeman did everything the organization wanted.Gerbs: I'm more excited about the guys coming up behind Straw than anything about him being off the roster. It was a situation that was doomed once the bat fell off the way it did, when he wasn't pulling the ball in 2022 then wasn't pulling the ball *and* not running in 2023. But Freeman getting the job is a win for the org and for fans, as even his league-average bat is a 30% increase in production over what Straw has given you offensively.Mitchell: Multiple things can be true at once. Straw has hit like a backup catcher for two full seasons now. He lost the job. Tyler Freeman has put in work to become a viable centerfielder, a position he has never played professionally. Regardless of how you feel about his longterm viability, that's extremely impressive. It could all fall apart, but he certainly earned his keep.

Estevan Florial was acquired by trade from the New York Yankees for pitcher Cody Morris. Was the fact that he cost an asset the reason he made the team, and what would be your ideal usage of him going forward?

Chris: Florial is on the Opening Day roster because he doesn't have options. The talent is there, so they couldn't risk losing him on waivers. Cleveland sure could use another swing pitcher/spot starter with the questionable health of the current rotation, but Morris had his own health issues here. It looks like either of these guys would've been hard to keep or let go, I don't know if either of them are real assets yet.Corey: Florial certainly didn't make a strong case in spring training to make the Opening Day roster - hitting .154/.241/.173 with 24 K's in 52 AB - but the most important number on his stat sheet is 26. As in 26-years-old. That's awful late in the evening to still be considered a prospect and no doubt Florial knows he will be starting out on fairly thin ice. Maybe a few at bats or pinch running turns will build up his confidence.Bode: Florial did nothing to earn his spot on the 2024 MLB roster during Spring Training, so it is clear the Guardians' front office decided he was on the team before ST started. 24 strikeouts in 58 PA against a mix of MLB and MiLB pitchers is not great. Let's hope he takes the Benson step forward as he has those traits.Matt: When you trade an asset for a player, most organizations will try to see it through, especially when Florial has no options. His spring training wasn’t great if you wanted a good first impression, but his fate would always be determined when the games actually count. He’s a mystery box on a roster that resembles a Russian doll of mystery boxes. Still, he can be a helpful contributor if getting consistent playing time is indeed what he needs, especially in a platoon.Gerbs: I really wanted Florial to flourish ((Ayo. Alliteration and puns, a Gerbs twofer!)) when he got to Cleveland and it's been the opposite mostly. I agree with the above: when you cost the team something in return, they are going to squeeze whatever juice they can out of you. Florial is still in a tough spot, being in a wrong-way platoon with Freeman in center, but I can see him getting looks through May at least.Mitchell: Does a sports car that can't drive more than ten miles before breaking down qualify as an asset? I guess technically. But no, the Guardians would be fine eating crow on a minor transaction. He made the team because he's never gotten any run in the Bigs, and even if the chance of him living up to his prospect pedigree is low, hitting on this trade would be pulling a rabbit out of a hat. At worst, he has a glove and he runs really fast. Sorta like a Myles Straw with way less defensive instinct but way more power.

Brayan Rocchio has been announced as receiving the "bulk" of the playing time at shortstop over Gabriel Arias. Was this the right decision? How many games do you figure Arias will play a week?

Chris: Rocchio was always the better prospect and he's ready to be given a shot. Arias had a small chance last year to grab hold of the starting spot, but he remains inconsistent. I'd expect to see Rocchio 5 days a week and Arias mixed in around the diamond 4 or 5 times, though some of those may be late-game replacements.Corey: Rocchio makes the most sense as the starting shortstop. Arias has already taken some turns at shortstop, first base, right field, third base, designated hitter, and second base so he could slot in for any of those spots as a late-game defensive sub. Still, I think Arias can expect to play short during day games so two or so games per week.Bode: It was always Brayan Rocchio. Arias can play every infield position, so he'll get plenty of playing time.Matt: It was the right move; I don’t think there was much to gain with him returning to Columbus and waiting his turn. Especially after a sporadic 86 PAs last year, he never got into a rhythm to be properly evaluated by the front office. I’m also a fan of the setup where Rocchio will play SS most of the time while Arias bounces around the diamond. I think Gabriel Arias will probably play at least four times a week at different positions, but it fits him at this point in his career since he has experience playing everywhere.Gerbs: Rocchio is the right answer, and I'm glad they came to it eventually. The man has 87 plate appearances to his credit and those have come with months in between them, not days. Let him sit and grow into the role, with Arias playing the Ben Zobrist "I can play anywhere!" routine.Mitchell:  It's a dynamic situation, so it's kind of difficult to predict. Rocchio could make nine web gems and hit .400 in the first two weeks and never look back, Steven Kwan style. He could also not do that. I do think Rocchio has a better chance than Arias to stick at the position and actualize into a perennially good player. Let's be optimistic and say he does this. With Freeman manning centerfield, Arias is the default utility guy, and probably starts 2-4 times a week across the dirt depending on injury and rest status.

We are all Cookie stans here at Waiting For Next Year and we are all overjoyed that he is back with the club. What can he provide as a 6th starter/long man once Gavin Williams returns? 

Chris: If Cookie can give us 5 innings for a couple starts while keeping the team in the game, I'll be thrilled. This is all bonus territory, for him and us, so let's everyone enjoy the ride. Past those 2 starts? Give me good vibes.Corey: Leadership? Carrasco has pitched in big moments, gotten clutch strikeouts, and lest we forget defeated cancer. Like Chris said, spot starts and occasional long relief turns are all he needs to do to be a contributor considering the presumed strength of this rotation.Bode: Carlos Carrasco is my favorite all-time Cleveland baseball player. I'm ecstatic he gets an opportunity to start in the rotation and he's noted he's happy to pitch out of the bullpen too. He'll get lots of innings as teams always need pitchers (14 pitchers started a game for the 2023 Guardians).Matt: It’s just awesome to have Cookie back! Having him as a swingman for this roster is not just great for the fans but for this young staff as well. His experience will go a long way, both in mentoring the young guys and in a pinch if Carrasco is needed again to start games, cause lord knows you always need arms to make it through the season.Gerbs: There are few better people in baseball than Cookie Carrasco and I'm ecstatic that he's back. As the SP5/6, he's perfect, as the ask of him is not huge and he can just go out there and shove what he can. He blossomed in the bullpen so many years ago for Cleveland, it's fitting that he likely will end up there in 2024, as his career winds down.Mitchell: He's been bad two of the last three seasons, and he was abysmal last year. Best case scenario: he's a serviceable starter who can get you five innings with a high-4 ERA. Worst case scenario: he's a pitching machine with a heart of gold.

The rookies in the rotation held the team together last year, with Tanner Bibee finishing second in the AL Rookie of the Year award. Who steps up this year out of those three, or is there another name you're interested in?

Chris: Logan Allen flies under the radar too often because of how dynamic the other two rookie starters were last year. The stuff isn't overpowering, but it's really good for a lefty starter, but he's going to continue to be outshined here. I just wanted to say his name before Bibee's. Come on, the guy was nearly an ace last year as a rookie. I'm sold on his stuff and his demeanor to be a true number 2 guy this year. Projections almost universally have him taking a step back, I think he steps up into fringe All-Star territory. 2019 Bieber is what I'm thinking for 2024 Bibee.Corey: The potential of a dreaded Sophomore Slump hangs over a few players on this year's roster. Bibee logged the most innings in 2023 (142 IP) and seems likeliest to continue strong play in 2024.Bode: Gavin Williams can be the best if he's healthy, which is already in question. Personally want to see each get above 150 innings and keep their FIP/ERA below 4.00. It's a tall ask but possible.Matt: I like Gavin a lot in 2024. Of the three sophomores, he has the higher ceiling, and even a small step forward can go a long way. The stuff is real; nobody doubts that, and he flashed moments that resembled a young Gerrit Cole while navigating his rookie campaign; if he attacks the zone with more consistency, he’ll rack up the whiffs and strikeouts at a crazy rate, and the future ace comps will soon become a reality.Gerbs: I want it to be The One And Only Logan Allen, but I find a hard way for him to get better, which is a backhanded compliment. He's a great SP4/5 in that you know what you're getting, and the floor isn't bad. If he can find a way to get a little more velo or miss bats a bit more, then he could rise, but as he is, he's fine.Mitchell: The starting rotation is my Position to Watch of 2024 because the range of possible outcomes is so vast. Injury or durability issues or setbacks could lead to this Guardians rotation being one of the worst in baseball. They also have five hurlers with the potential to be top-2 starters in almost any rotation right now. As always, the truth probably lies in the middle, but almost nothing would surprise me. I think Logan Allen takes the biggest leap forward, because why not. Predictions are hard.

Who is your breakout player amongst the hitters, the guy you won't change the channel for when you see him coming up to the plate?

Chris: More than half the starting lineup is in contention here. Besides Kwan, Jose, and Josh Naylor, everyone else is looking to break out or bounce back. I'll stay true to what I felt from myself in watching the limited spring games we get and go with Bo Naylor. The idea of the Guardians actually having an above-league-average bat in the lineup at catcher for the first time since Yan Gomes in 2018 is thrilling. The younger Naylor walks, he hits for power, he's athletic, and he had an OPS+ of 124 last year. If he does that over a full season, the Guardians should have a winning-team-level offense this year. When Manzardo comes up, though, he steals this answer in a landslide.Corey: It'll be Bo Naylor for me too. I actually attended last year's game when he got his first hit and it felt like he was everyone's little brother and not just Josh's. With some major league seasoning in hand, a full offseason, and spring training with the pitching staff I'm cautiously optimistic that Bo can contribute right away and provide an offensive upgrade at the catcher's position.Bode: Given Gimenez hit right at league average last year, I'll pick Andres as the 2024 break-out hitter as I expect him to bounce back. Both Naylors and Ramirez hit well last year, so I don't think they qualify... I'm less sure about Kwan jumping well-above average than I am Gimenez.Matt: Bo Naylor is my pick for a breakout. In his 67 games last year he rocked a 124 WRC+ and was absolutely blistering in his final two months of play. I feel pretty good saying he can build off that and be the Guardians X factor for this reason. If he can hit similar peaks throughout his first full season, he is not only a guy who can give some much-needed juice to a lineup that needs it, but that dude is an all-star.Gerbs: Bo knows. Bo hits. Bo knows how to hit. Getting a full season out of Brother Bo will be huge for the Guards this year, and he has every big of help along the way when he's not at the plate. Big bro Josh is there, Austin Hedges will be right there to help him once he hits the dugout, manager Stephen Vogt and bench coach Craig Albernaz were both former catchers, first base coach Sandy Alomar is probably the best catcher in franchise history... There's lots to love about Bo this year.Mitchell: It's Bo with a bullet. A breakout from Naylor the Younger would set the team up for the next half-decade.

What is your prediction for team record and finish for the season? 

Chris: 82-80, second place in the division. I don't think they did enough in-depth additions to weather the long season, but I also think they have enough talent to stay in contention into September. This is a bad division, and I don't trust breakouts from KC or Detroit, but Minnesota gets the edge in star power and a few lucky breaks. Maybe a winning record in July actually brings a consolidation trade to power Cleveland into division control next year? I also can't predict a playoff team with a rookie manager running this young roster, even if we all like Vogt.Corey: Predictions are, by rule, silly, but this is the time for them. I like them to finish 78-84 which is either second or third place unfortunately. Unless a few of the younger players have grown up in a big way and the pitching staff stays supernaturally healthy I see the Guardians being in the wrong side of too many 2-0 or 3-1 contests.Bode: I don't care for "win predictions." The team is still young and should be fun to follow. They will hit better overall just getting something-anything out of the center field and catcher positions for the long haul of the year. The bullpen might be a bit shakey, but we trust the development guys there. Look forward to the fun.Matt: I think the team will be better in the range of 85-95 wins. As long as the pitching is relatively healthy, they’ll be in many games, and I think some regression to the means in one-run games will swing back in Cleveland’s direction, which wasn’t the case last year.Gerbs: I said on the CornerCast (Go and listen!) that the team finishes with 92 wins, takes the division, and loses in the ALDS. It's pretty high up there in terms of expected outcome, like 90th percentile success, but I think the club can do it. Bounce back seasons from Kwan and Gimenez, better replacements offensively at centerfield and catcher, another year of development with the big club for Bibee and Williams and Allen, plus Bieber and Triston McKenzie are healthy. Let's go Guards!Mitchell: 87 wins and a second place finish that spells great things for 2025.