Spring Training Numbers Don't Matter. Unless...

It feels like it happens every year. No, not just Spring Training, but a feeling of hope. When the games don't matter, hope springs eternal. Every team is in first place, every player is in the best shape of their life. Reality soon sets in((The injury reports from Thursday sure were proof of that)), like the cold April in Cleveland that somehow keeps top prospects in AAA for just enough of the season to avoid Super Two status. Sometimes, though, these prospects break through that glass ceiling and won't be denied. In 2022, Steven Kwan was an Opening Day starting outfielder for the Guardians and parlayed that in a 3rd place finish in Rookie of the Year voting.  But for every Kwan or 2016 Tyler Naquin where a hot spring leads to an Opening Day roster spot and a productive season, there are dozens ((DOZENS OF US)) of Yu Changs, putting up big  fun numbers in a small sample only for that to lead...nowhere fun. ((By the way, follow Matt Milner, @33Milner, on Twitter for his running rankings of the annual Yu Chang Award, given to what is essentially the Spring Training MVP. Very good bit, and honestly kind of exciting to see.))So which numbers mean something and which ones will be forgotten by next spring (or next month)? I don't know, and if I did, I'd be working in the Guardians' front office right now, someday to be played by Jonah Hill in a movie. But my best guess is Angel Martinez's 1.413 OPS and 11 hits in 11 games is more of a small-sample wonder than any reason to rearrange prospect lists. That being said, let's break down a few numbers that mean something more than nothing.5, 5.2:  Those are then innings pitched so far for Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber, respectively. They've only had 2 starts a piece, but after coming back to pitch late last season, being able to have normal springs is big for both of these guys. The Guardians' best shot at contention this year is having a healthy rotation, and these are the only true veterans on the staff, with Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams all entering their second seasons. With Gavin already expected to start the season on the IL, we might see a cameo from a member of the last great Guardians rotation, Carlos Carrasco. That would be fun and poetic, but for the sake of winning games, let's hope Williams isn't set ack more than a week or two, and that Bieber and McKenzie stay off the IL for the whole season.94: Speaking of Bieber and looking like he has a healthy arm, his top velocity in his first start of the spring was 94 mph. If this were 2020, that would be a ho-hum, no big deal number, as his average four-seamer that year was 94.1 mph. Since then, it has fallen off to 92.8 in 2021 and 91.3 in both 2022 and 2023. Bieber pitched well through the lower velocity in 2022 but has otherwise struggled with injuries and only being a "good," not "generational" pitcher since his 2020 Cy Young campaign. Hitting 94 in his spring start is big news that there might still be that velocity juice left. Bieber worked on his stuff at Driveline ((same as Carrasco to test his own velocity)) to tap back into his mechanics for a spicier heater and a spinnier curveball, more in line with what he had in 2020. Early returns are great, but the adrenaline of a first start and freshness of an offseason arm might explain away some excitement. Still, this is a time for hopes and dreams, and Bieber finding Cy Young form in his contract year would be a welcomed outcome for all involved. What could that new contract cost? Ten dollars?2, 2, 7: Tyler Freeman has started 11 games in Spring Training so far. His position breakdown: 2 starts at shortstop (his natural position), 2 starts at third base, and SEVEN starts in centerfield. Prior to this spring, he has one total major league outfield appearance, a single game in left field last season.  Now, at worst, he is getting a chance to expand his versatility to super-utility levels. At best, he is pushing himself into starting center fielder consideration, and maybe pushing Myles Straw or Estevan Florial off the roster. Freeman has been a solid minor-league hitter, a Top 100 prospect, and a Sunday third baseman, but he's blocked by pretty good players at second and third, and higher-pedigree prospects at short. If he can find a way to start some games in center without being a disaster, he might finally get enough at-bats to prove he can be a full-time major leaguer. The team112, 468: Just for a little fun, let's take a look at a prospect; one who Jeff Passan thinks has a chance to make the Opening Day roster. He doesn't ((I don't think...)), but he's hit like he wants to blow down the door and take an outfield spot for himself. Guardians' top prospect Chase DeLauter has yet to play more than 6 games above A-ball, but he's put up some big spring numbers in Arizona. The ones that matter aren't his OPS or his 2 home runs. Well, the first home run matters. You see, those numbers in bold are the exit velocity (112 mph) and distance travelled (468ft) of his first home run in Spring Training. That ball sounded LOUD coming off his bat. Prospects are always fun because they are all hope and are often putting up numbers against lesser competition. It should be noted, however, that both of DeLauter's dingers this spring have come off of lefties as a lefty hitter, including the second one coming off of long-time major leaguer Danny Duffy. Between DeLauter and first baseman Kyle Manzardo, the Guardians might have a couple of impact bats waiting in the wings at Columbus. ((Counting down the days until service time won't lead to Super Two status...))DeLauter also happens to be outpacing Martinez in spring batting average, .467 to .440, so maybe those two should start writing their Cooperstown speeches now. This is baseball's statistical silly season. No one builds an All Star roster out of the spring leaderboards, but we dream on spring to keep the nightmare realities at bay a little while longer. When center fielder Tyler Freeman catches the final out of the World Series in October and Shane Bieber and Chase DeLauter lift the Commissioner's Trophy in October, we'll look back fondly on where it all started. Yu Changs to be determined. These numbers meant nothing for everyone else, but they might mean everything for us.