Cleveland Guardians Preseason Superlatives: Breakout Hitters

Hey, a new series! ((I swear I can write one-off articles. I swear I can. I promise...I just like series.)) Pitchers and catchers surreptitiously arrived in Goodyear yesterday, sparking the dawn of the new season. Fitting that there was confusion online about when the start date for the Cleveland Guardians was because, as I've highlighted, there are many spots where there is confusion as to who will get the first crack(s) at playing time at various positions across the diamond. But those conversations about first base, shortstop, and the outfield spots have all been had. ((The handy dandy links will get you there if you haven't read them yet, or want to read them again.)) I'm here today to discuss breakout candidates, the guys about to pop off and show us their stuff. Players who are finding new spots or more playing time and could be the next big things in Cleveland, furthering the youth movement and getting fans excited about Guardians baseball again.Before we start. I wanna qualify what I consider to be a "breakout": I don't think any of these players will be an Andres Gimenez "warrants consideration in the MVP discussion" breakout. It remains possible that they could, if they perform enough, but that can be said about a lot of players. But one or two or all three of these players have the opportunity to be household names in Cleveland and be bees in the bonnets of Twins and White Sox fans if this season goes the 80% percentile or better, and they have the chance to do so. All of these are players who have the opportunity to be full-time players and stand to make the most out of those opportunities. I'm gonna go least to most likely to have a big year, so buckle in.3: Estevan Florial, center fieldIt feels weird to have a guy who has been getting random major-league plate appearances since 2021 break out in 2024, but Florial has had the most circuitous route to playing time I've seen. Once considered one of the biggest prospects on the biggest stage, Florial disappointed fans and the org in New York. He only appeared in 11 games as a Yankee in 2021, 17 games in 2022, then 19 games in 2023, which is barely enough time to figure out which side of the hotel bed you wanna sleep on, let alone get adjusted to major league pitching. That kind of yo-yo-ing back and forth isn't helpful especially when Florial performed well enough in 2023 to be given a shot that never occurred because they decided to try Jake Bauers instead.With Florial, the AAA numbers have been good but not great until last year. A 28/25 season with a 13.7% walk rate, and a .945 OPS, Florial deserved more run as he put it together. In Cleveland, Florial is expected to be in the centerfield starter mix, and starting most of the games with Myles Straw being the late-inning defensive replacement. Being counted on to be the starter would be could be should be a big boon to his development as the team ascertains if he is just a Quad-A guy, someone who blasts minors pitching and can't put it together in the bigs, or found money in the form of Cody Morris's injury-prone right arm. Projections systems have him splitting more time than I think he will, getting fewer than 300 plate appearances, but all of them have him as a just-below-league-average hitter regardless of the time. Even in 250 projected plate appearances, the systems predict 7-8 home runs, double-digit stolen bases, and decent run production. Given the offensive output from Straw and others in 2023, "league average" will look like Shohei Ohtani, comparatively. If he's able to scratch out "starters minutes" in center, I can see a path to him being a part of the future for Cleveland.2: Brayan Rocchio, shortstopAnother "the hype has been more than the production" type guys, Rocchio is also fighting for playing time against those that arrived before him. Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman were ahead in development but time does not seem to be on their side as Rocchio arrived late in the season. I've discussed the differences between the three players: Freeman being the "hey, at least the floor is high" guy, Arias being the "hey, at least the MaxEV looks great" guy, and Rocchio splitting the difference of "high floor/projectable ceiling". Will he ever hit 20 home runs? Possible, but unlikely. He's much more likely to hit 30 doubles before he cracks 15 home runs, and even the gap power would be well-received in Cleveland. Will he strike out every third time at bat? Probs not, since the highest K% he ever had in the minors was 22.6% through 64 games and 288 plate appearances in High-A in 2021 and the 31.4% in 2023 was more a factor of not having enough time to settle in before the season ended than indicative of future numbers.As with Florial, the major league sample size is too small to do anything with. There was entirely too much time in between stints for Rocchio to be comfortable. He played in three games with 10 plate appearances in May, one game in June, then was up for good in August and September and you could see the dots connecting as he went along. If you carry that through and give him time to adjust, you will see more of the line drives off the bat we saw in the last 72 plate appearances he had in the second half and through the Venezuelan winter ball league. After he came up for good, his LD% was 21.4%, which if he keeps that across the season would be 27th best, smack between Anthony Volpe and Paul Goldschmidt. It remains to be seen where manager Stephen Vogt will turn to start the season off at shortstop, but to me, it's only a matter of time before "Michael Brantley but a shortstop" Rocchio secures the bag, literally and figuratively, at short and forces the team to make a decision on Arias and Freeman.1: Bo Naylor, catcherMa Naylor's second-born Noah, more commonly referred to as Bo, probably shouldn't be on this list. He played enough in 2023 to not be eligible for rookie status in 2024, ((I recently figured out that 100 plate appearances or 50 innings pitched are the thresholds for MLB.)) and when he was finally deemed the everyday catcher, he was masterful. He accumulated 2.4 fWAR, a wRC+ of 124, hit 11 dingers, stole five bases, and maintained a good enough walk-to-strikeout rate that would have been near the top 30 in the bigs if he qualified. Let's put it this way: even with only 67 games played to his campaign, little more than half of big brother Josh's total, he was the 5th most valuable hitter and 6th most valuable Guardian on the roster.Without any competition this year for playing time, Naylor seems ripe to explode on the league. A 20/20 threat at catcher, while being a massive upgrade behind the plate over last year's disgrace to flotsam, Naylor is posied to be brought up around the best of the best at catcher. The only thing standing in his way is health, like any player, and the possibility that Vogt will use returning backup catcher Austin Hedges and/or utility man David Fry more than we might think, especially in the early going. The organization has been loathe to keep only two catchers on the roster, which bodes well for Fry, as they try to maximize the flexibility of the lineup and allow for pinch-hit opportunities late in games while also load managing their starter into full off days away from the field. Given Naylor's age, he might not see as much bench time as Mike Zunino or Cam Gallagher did a season ago, but it remains a question. Get ready for "Bo Knows" ads and hashtags this summer.