Why the Guardians might be open to trading Emmanuel Clase

With last week's report from Jeff Passan that the Guardians are "open to trading" Emmanuel Clase, there was renewed vigor amongst GuardoTwitter that there was yet another avenue to adding power and/or offense to the lineup. You've heard and read it already enough: the Guardians are last in power, and the list of outfielders that have hit the most home runs for the team doesn't include anyone from 2020 to now and has names like Shelley Duncan, Rajai Davis, and Ryan Raburn peppered on it. Most everyone expects the team to make some sort of move, likely via trade, to address the offense and until the Passan report, it was starter Shane Bieber on the block, not Clase. ((Bieber was mentioned as the team "entertains the possibility" of trading the right-hander.))But let's get a few things out of the way first: as always, every player outside Jose Ramirez is "available" according to the front office tandem of president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff. The price for any player in the organization is likely higher than a guy in a Phish shirt outside a dispensary named the Happy Herb Hub, but every and any one *could* be acquired. Secondly, I do not think the team traded for Scott Barlow so they could then in turn deal Clase elsewhere. Barlow is a good reliever with closing experience and the tandem of Barlow/Clase at the ends of games fortifies a bullpen that has missed the help since James Karinchak fell apart and Trevor Stephan regressed in 2023. It's unlikely that Cleveland is the one doing the exploring here and much more likely that teams are calling and getting the "What would an offer look like from your end?" in response before kindly saying "We'd need some more."So what would a Clase trade look like if it were to materialize?? Let's first see what is being dealt away: the ML saves leader in 2022 and 2023, but also the leader in blown saves in 2023. Clase's K numbers dropped last season as well, from 9.5 K/9 in 2022 to 7.9 K/9 in 2023, but he is still well-valued and underpaid. He's scheduled to make $25.m, $4.5m, and $6m in the next three years before club options paying him $10m in 2027 and 2028 kick in. Compare that to relievers like Edwin Diaz ($17.25m), Raisel Iglesias ($16m), and Ryan Pressly (14m), and you see how much value is on the table for Cleveland.Now, I went looking for complimentary closer trades over the last few years and the Josh Hader deal seems to be the closest thing to what a Clase move might return. Hader went from Milwaukee to San Diego for center fielder Esteury Ruiz, righty Dinelson Lamet, and reliever Taylor Rogers in 2022 a year before he was set to be a free agent, and is one of the most sought-after players this winter. Ruiz has bounced around from San Diego to Milwaukee to Oakland in the span of 18 months but, when healthy, was a stolen base monster with 67 swipes. Lamet threw 27.2 innings in 2023 for two different teams and is basically out of baseball at this point. Rogers has also bounced around but had an 11.15 K/9 for San Francisco in 2023. Lamet was a sunk cost and likely was tacked on to the trade by San Diego as the cost of doing business, but this trade feels like compared to what Cleveland could ask for. The issue with the Hader trade was he had only 18 months left of control, as opposed to Clase's three years even before you get to his relatively cheap option years.Cleveland has an opportunity to add some serious thump to its lineup with a Clase trade but how much other teams are willing to give up is key. Every team could feasibly use Clase, as his salary numbers are easy to squeeze into any payroll, and even those out of contention could use the stability of Clase to help morale and culture. But would contending teams want to give up stars, whether they be stars today or in the future, for him? The list would simply be too broad to go through and list out names. The Cubs might move Christopher Morel, the Reds could deal an outfielder like TJ Friedl, or St Louis could cut bait on someone like Dylan Carlson or Tyler O'Neill. The moral of the story is that any trade of Clase would likely have to be an overpay from the other side and also likely would look like not enough for Cleveland fans to stomach. There have been too many blown games to rationalize dealing Clase without a sure thing coming back.