This Week in Guardians Baseball: Mirage or Real?

April baseball is known for small sample sizes and over-reactions to said small sample sizes. The Pittsburgh Pirates are above .500 entering this week after all. But, there are sometimes glimmers of reality that set in early. It is impossible to tell the difference yet, but why should that stop us from trying?So, what is real and what is a mirage?

Josh Bell was signed to add power and length to the lineup. Thus far, he is batting .079/.250/.079. Are there any worry signs to his slow start?

Ethan: I’m not overly concerned about Josh Bell. The walk rate is still over 18% as I’m typing this. He’s had a combination of an 80% ground ball rate and a .115 BABIP. He’s still hit a few baseballs pretty hard, just hasn’t found many gaps. He’s a notoriously slow starter, just a rough go this time around. Once he starts lifting a few baseballs he’ll be fine.Matt: I’m not that worried, In Josh Bell’s career he’s been notoriously streaky, but usually offsets it with getting on base. So far he’s tied for the team lead with 9, so that’s at least a good sign. I think the thing that’s killing him is a lot of his hard hit balls are grounders, 76% of his batted balls have been grounders in fact. I think once his timing is down and he’s gets his bearings, things will start to normalize and he’ll be hitting like the guy that won the silver slugger last year.Mike: While you have been reading the above answers, Bell hit another soft grounder to the first baseman (probably). The issue that Bell can run into is that a poor defender and poor baserunner at a non-essential defensive position MUST hit well especially with so many Guardian prospects hitting the cover off the ball in Columbus. Thus far, Bell has been swinging at the ball out of the zone far more (~8%) than he has in his career and far less (~5%) in the zone. That has resulted in far more swing-n-miss and strikeouts (25%!) than his profile normally has. So, while I do think he rebounds and the walk rate (16%!) is promising, I am not as confident as my fellow WFNYers that he will rebound enough to justify his spot (the line there for me is finishing above 115 wRC+ on the year).

Myles Straw has added more than 100 wRC+ to his stat line from last season. How much of his break-out thus far can continue?

Ethan: Myles Straw is experiencing divine retribution from the baseball gods for just how awful his BABIP luck was last season. He’ll experience some regression to the mean (.462 BABIP cannot possibly be sustainable), but the walk rate is healthy and he still has the speed to leg out the infield singles. Too early to tell if he’s truly benefitting from the shift ban since he’s using the whole field pretty well, but it might be helping with those infield dribblers.Matt: Yes, even if I don’t think he’ll keep hitting at a .300 clip, I definitely believe in his OBP. That is the key with Myles Straw and that’s how he’s been a functional bat in the lineup, and his on base being at .449 is fantastic. Obviously, I don’t think he’s prime Barry bonds with that insane OBP but even if it dips to .350 especially with the walk rate being at his career norms, him and his legs make such a big difference when he’s on base than when he isn’t.Mike: I was fully expecting Myles Straw to bounce back from his horrific batting performance in 2022. His current statistical line is not sustainable (BAbip of .414 for a non-power hitter... nor even his 18% walk rate), but he's the anti-Bell here where if he can be an above average hitter, then he's a near All-Star given his elite abilities on defense at a premium position as well as on the basepaths.

Zach Plesac starts have been the leading cause of whiplash in Northeast Ohio this season. Can he settle back in to be a reliable option in the rotation?

Ethan: The short answer with Plesac is no. He went 7 innings against Seattle, but they weren’t necessarily strong innings. The Mariners were aggressive against Plesac and were absolutely ripping the cover off the ball (14 balls in play that registered an exit velocity of 95 MPH or harder), but they kept hitting it right at guys. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, but luck runs out eventually. I am intrigued by his increased Slider usage, however. 40% through two starts, and he did rack up 12 whiffs against Seattle. If there’s any chance for him to be the 5 all year, that’s the pitch.Matt: I hate to say it but no, with Plesac that part that has always been a bugaboo is he gives up a lot of hard contact. It would be one thing if he generated ground balls at a healthy rate, but when he gets hit it’s hit hard. I hope for his sake he strings together more performances like he did against the mariners because if it looks more like the athletics start in Oakland, oh boy.Mike: Plesac is likely a legitimate SP5 for a MLB ballclub. I do believe that is where his talent can play. However, the Guardians, with the pitching development they have, should expect more from their rotation. Once Civale and McKenzie are back, my expectation is that one or more of the current set of starting pitcher prospects (Battenfield, Bibee, more doubtful on Gaddis) have pushed Plesac out of the rotation, which only then leaves to question of the Guardians might grant him his release or use an option to send him to Columbus.

James Karinchak has self-imploded on the mound and dominated the heart of the Yankees lineup. Which version of the enigmatic hurler shows up most often the rest of 2023?

Ethan: Yes. We’re going to continue to see both sides of Karinchak. He’s a head case, but he’s our head case. At home with the crowd behind him against the Yankees we’re going to see that pumped-up psycho, but he absolutely can and will get rattled on the road like he did opening series in Seattle. His dominant stretches are downright dominant, but there will be clunkers mixed in.Matt: It’s probably the version we see against the Yankees more often than not. Outside of the 2021 second half, he’s been one of the more dominant relievers in his time here. Yeah he’ll have his moments where he’ll walk some guys and create trouble for himself, but he’ll also be the same guy to strike out the side in the same breath. Sometimes you just got to enjoy the ride that is Karinchak.Mike: Watching Karinchak recover from Straw making a rare mental error in center field to mow down the heart of the Yankees lineup and strand a runner on third base was the most dominant inning any Guardians pitcher has had in 2023. The apparent concentration breakdown Karinchak had when he violated the pitch clock on Opening Day was amongst the worst. Those are the extremes and we will get some performances between them. What it all seems to come down to is if he is locating his curve ball in the bottom of the strike zone. The days he is, the fastball plays up, and he's unhittable. The days he is not, hitters get way more patient and he gets into trouble.