Cleveland Guardians Top 30 Prospects: #3 Gavin Williams

Cleveland's 2021 draft class is shaping up to be something special, producing six total members of my top 30 and several other players to keep an eye on. More on that later. The 2021 class is especially strong for pitchers, including the likes of Tanner Bibee, Doug Nikhazy, Ryan Webb, Jack Leftwich, Tommy Mace, do you really want me to keep going? Overall Cleveland drafted 19 pitchers with their 21 selections, and based on early returns there are several success stories in the class.The Guardians snagged Tanner Bibee, my 6th ranked prospect entering 2023, in the 5th round of the 2021 draft, and in that write-up, I mentioned he was one of the fastest movers in the system, but the fastest rise belongs to another pitcher in the same class. Both started in Lake County, both finished with Akron, both have big fastballs, and as Zack Meisel of The Athletic has reported, the two have a friendly rivalry that has become must-see tv for Cleveland's staff and front office members when they take the mound on the back fields in Goodyear.Gavin Williams is my 3rd ranked Guardians prospect, a right-handed pitcher from Eastern Carolina that Cleveland selected in the first round of the 2021 MLB draft. Williams, 23, had and interesting career path at ECU, but ultimately became the second-highest draft pick in Pirates program history when the Guardians grabbed him at 23. When Williams was recruited by the Pirates he was throwing in the low-90s for Cape Fear High School, but was sitting 95-98 with his fastball when he arrived for his freshman season in 2018.[embed]https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1565857263608369152?s=20[/embed]Despite the spike in velocity and a 1.15 ERA in 15 appearances as a freshman Williams didn't crack the Eastern Carolina rotation until 2021. He made the most of the opportunity and rode a dominant season to a first-round selection. Though he was primarily used as a reliever by the Pirates during his career (started 17 of 53 games) Williams was able to maintain his velocity deep into starts and even logged a complete game shutout in 2021. The talent was never in question, but even still it's safe to say his professional debut exceeded expectations.Williams made 25 starts split between High-A Lake County and Double-A Akron during his debut 2022 season. Overall he accumulated a 5-4 record with a 1.96 ERA in 115 innings pitched, with 40 walks (8.9%) to 149 strikeouts (33.1%). Calling Williams a fast mover earlier may have been somewhat of an understatement, as he was promoted to Akron after just nine starts for the Captains. In those nine games, Williams pitched 45 innings, posted a 1.40 ERA, a 1.64 FIP, struck out an astonishing 40% of opposing batters, and he didn't surrender a home run. The organization felt like he didn't have anything left to prove in Lake County, and it's hard to argue.[embed]https://twitter.com/jnorris427/status/1508835384590888962?s=20[/embed]He experienced some normal road bumps in Akron, but he was still a force to be reckoned with in his 16 starts for the Rubberducks. He posted a 2.31 ERA in 70 innings pitched to go along with a 4.03 FIP, and though his strikeout rate fell to 29.1% the walk rate stayed virtually the same between both levels, a positive sign for his development overall. Williams pitched a grand total of 149.1 innings in his time at ECU, so it was even more encouraging that he continued to maintain his velocity deep into starts over 115 innings while handling his first taste of a full starter's workload in 2022.At 6 foot 6 and 255 pounds, Williams is a menacing sight on the mound, and his competitiveness and intensity are every bit as unnerving for opposing hitters as his frame. His fastball is easily top-three in Cleveland's farm system, and should be in the conversation as one of the best in all of Minor League Baseball. Sitting 94-98, eclipsing 100 at times, with ridiculous movement that misses a ton of bats. He rounds out the rest of his repertoire with a high-70s curveball, a mid-to-high-80s power slider, and an 85-90 changeup.The curveball is regarded as his best secondary offering, with high spin rates and 12-6 downward movement he has a great feel for it and can consistently get strikes with it. The slider is Major League-ready with late bite and quickly became one of my favorites in the system. While the changeup may be Williams' weakest offering it's by no means a down pitch, and he worked on incorporating it more in his first professional season, building up the confidence to throw it to both righties and lefties late in 2022.[embed]https://twitter.com/JL_Baseball/status/1518081618333900803?s=20[/embed]The concern for Williams lies almost solely in his command. He was inconsistent at times, but as the season progressed he started to get a better feel for things, helped by his surprising ability to consistently repeat his delivery for his size. Williams' pure stuff is so good these issues can be masked at times in the low minors, but as he climbs the system and eventually makes it to the show he'll need to have average command at least to capitalize on his raw talent and stuff. It's also worth mentioning that Williams has a checkered past of injuries, including back issues dating back to high school that may be partially why he slid to Cleveland late in the first round. He was healthy in 2022, but it's something to be conscious of moving forward.It's hard to envision a scenario where Williams doesn't begin 2023 with Triple-A Columbus alongside some of Cleveland's other top flight pitching prospects. Given what we witnessed in 2022 he's likely to figure into Cleveland's plans at some point this coming season, the question is how soon will that be? Williams will have a longer path to the Majors if he experiences any significant regression with his command, but there aren't many better organizations to be in to build on the gains he made last season.As long as his injury issues don't resurface Williams should make quick work of the upper minors. With three Major League-ready pitches he has the raw talent and stuff to acclimate himself to Triple-A with ease, but even then he'll have to usurp one of Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis or Konnor Pilkington for a spot on the 40-man. With the crowds Williams has been drawing in Spring Training the organization is very aware of what he is and what he can be, so there's very little doubt in my mind they won't call him up when the time is right.The List so Far:4. Bo Naylor5. George Valera6. Tanner Bibee7. Logan Allen8. Chase DeLauter9. Angel Martinez10. Cody Morris11. Justin Campbell12. Jose Tena13. Xzavion Curry14. Gabriel Arias15. Jaison Chourio16. Will Brennan17. Joey Cantillo18. Juan Brito19. Nate Furman20. Petey Halpin21. Parker Messick22. Doug Nikhazy23. Tanner Burns24. Joe Lampe25. Isaiah Greene26. Jake Fox27. Jhonkensy Noel28. Jack Leftwich29. Trenton Denholm30. Peyton Battenfield