This Week in Guardians Baseball: Prospect Cumulative Rankings
Which of the starting pitcher prospects do you think will be the Opening Day starter for the Guardians in 2027?
Forness: I’m going to have to go with Tanner Bibee. The buzz is very steadily growing around him, but with the health concerns surrounding Daniel Espino and a less-than-perfect track record for Gavin Williams, Bibee’s elite command and newfound velocity might actually make him the most likely next great Cuyahoga Pitching Factory LLC success.Milner: I feel like it’ll be Gavin Williams. The reason I’m high on Gavin Williams is he has that type of traits that the Guardians have excelled in developing. Not to mention that he can reach triple digits and is developing some nasty breaking balls to compliment the heater. With his ceiling being an ace, I’m fairly confident that on 2027 he’ll be taking the ball on opening day.Bode: There are times the pure fan in me must thrive. Anyone who has seen the grainy Spring Training videos ((OK, they were 4K but I'm rolling here)) from last season that led to Daniel Espino jumping up the prospect rankings across every major publication knows his stuff goes to positive infinity. ((The limit does not exist.)) There are questions of health and questions of use (will Espino be a devastating bullpen weapon rather than starter?), but I'm not dreaming four years out on anything less than Daniel Espino leading the rotation and PitchingNinja recap videos of nasty strikeouts.Krall: This is a tricky question. Of the quartet of high-end starting pitching prospects (Williams, Bibee, Daniel Espino, Logan Allen), Espino has the lowest chance of maintaining his starting role. He's never thrown over 100 innings in a season and the Guardians player development team, who know a thing or two about pitching development, might decide he never will. However, to use a highly technical term, his stuff is bonkers. If Espino does stay in the rotation, he has the highest chance of being the perennial Cy Young candidate we've become accustomed to seeing spearhead Cleveland's rotation. He's my choice.
Which position player has the best capability of becoming an annual Guardians AL-MVP candidate in 2027 and beyond?
Forness: Brayan Rocchio. It’s no secret I’m a diehard fan of “The Professor”. He’s a complete package as a player and should be a fixture up the middle in Cleveland for years to come. His ceiling could be a perennial MVP contender.Milner: I’m leaning towards George Valera. I think the traits he has from the 30+ HR power, the patience at the plate, can definitely lead to a potential MVP candidate. Obviously he’ll have to clean some things up but I think the potential is very much there for George Valera in the future.Bode: Let's consider what the "likeliest" candidates of achieving this unlikely result would have to achieve. Rocchio would need to truly be the next Francisco Lindor, including the power output. Valera, the next Manny Ramirez. Espino would need to have workhorse innings coupled with his superpower abilities on individual pitches. Bo Naylor gets a big advantage if he can stick to catcher, become a yearly All-Star, and hit well enough to also be racking up Silver Slugger Awards at the position. Also, quite the tough ask. So, I'm going to go with Andres Gimenez, who has already earned MVP votes for the Guardians ((Gimenez finished No. 6 in AL-MVP voting in 2022.)) and hope the organization finds a way to extend him out a few years past 2027. ((Jose Ramirez is signed through 2028 and despite the fact he'll be in his mid-30s, he is probably the real answer here.))Krall: It's really hard to contend for an MVP. You have to be transcendent. For a prospect, everything has to go right. So while the Guardians are not bereft of position-player talent in the minors, I think each guy whose name you probably know--Valera, Rocchio, Bo Naylor, Gabriel Arias, Jhonkensy Noel--has a flaw in his game that could limit his ceiling. Slick defenders Rocchio and Arias both have questionable approaches at the dish. Also, Arias's high whiff rate seems likely to limit his ability to access his raw power, while Rocchio doesn't have all that much raw power to begin with. Noel, on the other hand, has light-tower power, but will need to make the absolute most of it to be an above-average major leaguer at first base, let alone an MVP candidate. Valera has an amazing eye, but an amazing eye doesn't put the bat on the ball. Bo Naylor is a catcher; only five catchers accrued over 500 PAs last season. Nothing against Bo, it's just really difficult to play enough to merit MVP consideration perennially. So I'm going with a hipster choice, outfielder and legal minor Jaison Chourio. Yes, he's young, but that's exactly the point. As of now, he has no real flaws, just uncertainty. The projectably built 6'2" outfielder terrorized summer league pitchers last season, and if his performance carries over into 2023, let's just say you're going to hear his name often.
Who is the most under-rated prospect? Why?
Forness: I’m just going to give a list of names, but the further I get the more underrated I think they are: Joey Cantillo, Jack Leftwich, Joe Lampe, Will Dion, Alexfri Planez, Alaska Abney.Milner: Are we sleeping on Joey Cantillo? I only ask because in a rotation filled with the talented prospects last year, he had one of the better seasons. Look I get it you also might be skeptical because lefties for whatever reason haven’t found success since Scott Kazmir back in 2013, but I think there is something to this guy who acquired some added velo and complements it with a Vulcan change up that falls off the table. I feel like he might be a sneaky candidate to make his debut sometime in 2023.Bode: Ethan Hankins is ranked No. 29 on the cumulative chart above. Justin Campbell is ranked No. 11. Both of these players are 6-foot-6 or better and inside the Guardians Pitching Factor LLC. One of these players was in the mix for the top of the 2018 MLB Amateur draft before a shoulder tinge at the worst time allowed Cleveland to draft him later in the first round. One of these players has a mid-90s fastball with fantastic movement despite a great-shaped curveball being his current best pitch. One of these players has shown an ability use his athleticism to vary delivery with shimmies and alterations to truly mess with hitter's timing. I like Justin Campbell. I think Justin Campbell is going to make it to The Show, which is a crazy accomplishment for any baseball player. But, Justin Campbell is no Ethan Hankins. (( Yes, this assumes Hankins can resume where he left off in 2019, which is quite a long time ago, but early reports are quite positive... ))Krall: I'm choosing Logan Allen as most underrated because his skills don't jump out like his upscale pitching prospect peers. He's less of a flamethrower and more of a crafty lefty. You won't say wow after watching him pitch. All he has is three, maybe four average or better major league pitches, with good command and a deceptive delivery. Compared to Daniel Espino, who throws approximately 212 MPH, or Gavin Williams, who looks like a prototypical workhorse, or Tanner Bibee, whose story seems eerily similar to one Shane Bieber's, I see why people might underrate Allen. Of that quartet, though, Allen seems most poised to make an impact on the big league squad soonest.
Who is the most over-rated prospect? Why?
Forness: I guess this is the hot take portion of the roundtable? I know the name that’s leaning that way for some (Valera), but there aren’t too many guys trending this direction in the farm. It’s probably between Jhonkensy Noel and Xzavion Curry. Noel has mammoth power, but he’s a man without a position and doesn’t hit well enough overall (he’s still just 21, it can change) to be a true DH. For Curry he’s an almost-elite command arm, but the stuff lags behind other pitchers in the system. There’s no reason he couldn’t stick at the back of the rotation depending on how things shake out, but there are better arms in the system.Milner: I’m not much of a hater because who am I to hate on a prospect who could end up being really great. With that being said I’m not sure if I'm a big fan of Jhonkensy Noel, not to say he can’t be good but I wonder with his skillset if he fits with what they are doing now. His contact ability isn’t the best, his power potential is awesome in theory but he might have the same pitfalls as Franmil Reyes. With the Guardians going away from this type of profile (Nolan Jones, Will Benson to name a few) I’m just not sure if he’s thought of as highly in the organization as he is with the fans.Bode: Using this slot to simply bring up that Angel Genao is not known amongst most of the Guardian fanbase, but he sure seems known by prospect analysts. Given they have seen him play more, they probably know better than most of us, but I am ignorant to his abilities. So, he's over-rated compared to where "I have him." Hopefully, he makes that look silly by this time next year.Krall: Bo Naylor is my choice for most overrated. His name is already a household one thanks to his brother and first-round draft pick status. That already raises his expectations to unfair levels. I think people expect him to excel at the dish and behind it, and that's really really difficult. Just for fun, I looked up FanGraphs' preseason top prospects of 2019 and filtered the list to only view catchers. There are 12 of them in the Top 100, but only two of them have put up one or more truly above-average season as a full-time catcher (i.e. >3 WAR). Most of them are in the 1.5-2 WAR range. Some already seem like busts. I hope I'm wrong! It just seems unlikely that Bo Naylor becomes the impact player we're all hoping for.
Forness: Circling back to Brayan Rocchio. There’s a lot of players I love in the system for various reasons (do yourselves a favor and look up video of Alaska Abney pitching. Seriously.) but Rocchio has so much promise. It’s hard not to watch him and think a little bit of Francisco Lindor, and the thought of a Rocchio/Andres Gimenez double play tandem up the middle is the most exciting prospect possibility for me currently in-house.Milner: Daniel Espino, what can I say I’m sucker for power pitchers. Even with the injury concerns as of late I don’t think it should deter anyones excitement for him, with his 80 grade fastball and slider combo he’s got the highest ceiling of all the pitching prospects. I feel like if he were to put it all together and be healthy he can be one of the most talented pitchers ever to grace the mound at the corner of Carnegie & Ontario and I don’t think I’m exaggerating either.Bode: I love the idea that after years of talking about Rocchio and Tyler Freeman and even Jose Tena that Angel Martinez might rocket through the minors, knock over the apple cart and just grab onto the shortstop job and never let go.Krall: Just like Aaron Bracho before him (sad), I like the idea of Juan Brito a lot. Can't play a position? Doesn't matter. Can't hit for power? Doesn't matter. No physical projection? Doesn't matter. Dude hits. Let's hope his career path doesn't go the route of Bracho.
Where can you find articles on individual prospects?
The List:
- Daniel Espino2. Brayan Rocchio3. Gavin Williams4. Bo Naylor5. George Valera6. Tanner Bibee7. Logan Allen8. Chase DeLauter9. Angel Martinez10. Cody Morris11. Justin Campbell12. Jose Tena13. Xzavion Curry14. Gabriel Arias15. Jaison Chourio16. Will Brennan17. Joey Cantillo18. Juan Brito19. Nate Furman20. Petey Halpin21. Parker Messick22. Doug Nikhazy23. Tanner Burns24. Joe Lampe25. Isaiah Greene26. Jake Fox27. Jhonkensy Noel28. Jack Leftwich29. Trenton Denholm30. Peyton Battenfield