This Week in Guardians Baseball: Opening Day
The 2023 MLB season is upon us with the Cleveland Guardians looking to push forward their youthful approach to roster management. Sporting the league’s youngest 40-man roster and among the bottom-5 payrolls in all of baseball, the 2022 team was surprisingly competitive as they won the AL Central division, while 17 prospects made their major league debut. The 2023 team will have higher expectations and a target affixed to them; can they continue the success?The WFNY staff is here to set the table for the upcoming season.
What is the strength of the Guardians roster?
Forness: The strength of the team has to be depth, and it’ll be tested early with Triston McKenzie slated to miss up to eight weeks. They won 92 games last season with 17 rookies and injuries to Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac. There’s precedent: they have the pieces to step up and fill in, but the potential pieces this year come with seemingly more pedigree. George Valera, Bo Naylor, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, Joey Cantillo. These are all top 15-20 prospects depending on the outlet you’re reading that could step up this season. And that’s ignoring that Will Brennan and Gabriel Arias, who may be legitimate players themselves, are riding the bench.Milner: To me, the strength of the team is the bullpen. When you have the league's best closer in Emmanuel Claśe, that’s a great place to start. Not to mention, the battery of Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, and Sam Hentges at Tito’s disposal in the 7th and 8th inning really shortens the game for the Guardians. Even the complementary pieces of Enyel De Lo Santos, Eli Morgan, and Nick Sandlin, the depth of the team is what sets this pen apart. Obviously, bullpens can be erratic in nature but I think as of right now the bullpen is the safest bet on this team.Gerbs: With the injury to Triston McKenzie, the strength of the roster has to be the offense. Last year, the offense showed what it could do when they have the capability of stringing together hits, forcing opposing starters out early by wreaking havoc on the base paths, and now they have two things going for them in 2023: rule changes that help their brand of baseball, and two free agent signees in Josh Bell and Mike Zunino that should add the extra punch needed at the plate.Krall: There’s weirdly a lot to choose from here–the up-the-middle defense is impressive, last year’s bullpen was gas from top to bottom–but I’m going to choose the obvious, which is contact hitting. What makes this trait so strong for Cleveland isn’t the ability to put bat on ball in a vacuum, but rather, it’s the ability of so many Guardians to avoid strikeouts while contributing other means of offensive production as well. Four of the top 50 qualified hitters on the contact percentage leaderboards (i.e. contact/swing, not contact/pitch) suited up for Cleveland last season: Steven Kwan (2nd), Myles Straw (4th), Jose Ramirez (12th), and Amed Rosario (41st). Kwan and Straw are clinicians when it comes to working the count and drawing walks, while Ramirez…well, we all know what Ramirez can do. Even Rosario, who’s perhaps the only prototypical contact hitter, has massive raw power to punish mistakes. That’s not all though: if you lower the PA threshold, platoon star Josh Naylor and young’uns like Tyler Freeman and Will Brennan were also well above average in this category. In fact, only middle infield prospect Gabriel Arias and thumping catcher Mike Zunino grade out as significantly below average. The best part is that Cleveland added to this strength by signing Josh Bell, who ranked 51st on the list of qualified hitters, and like Ramirez, combines his lack of whiff with walks and potentially homers galore. Opposing defenses, who won’t be able to drastically shift anymore, better be ready to move.Bode: Balance and intangibles is the strength of this Guardian team. The rotation, bullpen, and offense should all be above average though none are expected to be dominant. The defense and baserunning should add to the team without taking anything away. The depth coming from the minor leagues might not yet have the major prospects making their push (hello, 2024), but there is enough talent to keep the team from falling off due to injury. Much like Kwan's hitting profile, there is not a significant hole to exploit.
What is the weakness of the Guardians roster?
Forness: For the first time in what feels like, well, forever, I’m going with the rotation. Shane Bieber is clearly at the top. I just mentioned McKenzie could miss the first two months. There are legitimate concerns around all three of Cal Quantrill, Civale, and Plesac. Yes, I’m high on the depth and there are really good pitching prospects at the top of the farm, but those guys won’t be up until later in the season, and will still be rookies. Now, it’s not so bad that the team will struggle to win more than once every fifth day. The offense will help with the burden and if the starters can keep the damage limited enough and get the game to the bullpen then Cleveland can win games 7-5.Milner: I hate to say it, but it’s probably the rotation right now. It’s probably the Triston McKenzie injury talking, but we also had questions when the starting five was fully healthy. Outside of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac are major question marks going into 2023. Cal Quantrill while a steady presence since becoming a starter in 2021, is still sometimes very streaky himself. Obviously, things can change from April to September but the starting 5 we see now will probably be different when the team is hopefully pushing for the postseason.Gerbs: Fortunately/unfortunately, it's the rotation. I say fortunately because this organization has shown time and time again that they are capable of developing starters of the highest caliber with the quickest of turnarounds and it will be needed to keep this team afloat. I say unfortunately because we saw last year some of the upper-tier starters in the system (Hunter Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, and Konnor Pilkington) were just not ready for prime time and at least Gaddis and Curry will be called upon early.Krall: Here’s how you know we’re in for a wild season. The starting rotation, which in years past would have been the consensus strength of the club (except maybe from Michael Bode, wanting to be special. Hi Bode.) is this squad’s biggest weakness. The vaunted pitching factory hasn’t shuttered its doors, mind you; there’s just a kink in the supply chain at the moment. The problem isn’t depth. There are ample pitching prospects in Akron and Columbus just dying to make a name for themselves. The problem is a lack of upside. Shane Bieber, though still wildly effective in 2022, saw his strikeouts plummet alongside his fastball velocity. Should that trend continue, Bieber’s name likely won’t be included amongst the best of the best. Of the remaining hurlers, only Triston McKenzie has real top-of-the-rotation potential, but his teres major had other plans, and so he’ll start the season on the IL. After that, things get dicey. Don’t let Cal Quantrill’s impressive ERAs fool you; at some point, allowing a wealth of baserunners will tax the Ontario native with runs. Zach Plesac has consistently shown his 2020 was a small-sample and potentially sticky-stuff-induced mirage. He’d be lucky to have a spot in the rotation by season’s end. And while Aaron Civale’s 2022 was teeming with bad luck, it still remains to be seen whether he can stay healthy for a full season. Even then, it’ll be difficult for Civale to amount to much more than a league-average starter. Add it all up, and I expect the Cleveland rotation to be downright below average in 2022, a shocking departure from years past and perhaps the biggest thing holding them back from being the prohibitive AL Central favorite.Bode: The rotation is the popular answer here, and there are reasons to worry: McKenzie injury, Plesac mid-ness, the four-headed prospect monster of Espino-Williams-Bibee-Allen not likely quite ready. However, to win the division and be a true contender, some aspect of the team will have to step up into dominance. So, the main weakness I foresee is that the only dominant trait the Guardians have is the aforementioned defense and baserunning. While those are great aspects to have and tend to be fairly consistent year-over-year, they are more intangible attributes rather than main ones. The 2022 ballclub wound up running away from the AL Central division because the bullpen went through an absolutely bonkers dominant stretch the last eight weeks of the season. With McKenzie out, the bullpen will be stretched far more thin early in the year, so it's tough to expect that... can Bell and Zunino's addition and another year of seasoning on the kids propel into a Top 5 offense? It is a lot to ask. (( The new rules do help the Guardians a bit too. ))
Who is your breakout player candidate for 2023?
Forness: We were spoiled last season. Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez, Triston McKenzie. The Guardians lucked into several foundational building blocks of a new core last season, and it makes you hungry for who’s next. To be honest, I have no idea. There is any number of guys who could fit the mold, but thinking about how and where they eventually get a chance is what’s difficult to predict. I’m going to go with Joey Cantillo. As one of the pitchers currently on the 40-man that could spare the club from starting Tanner Bibee’s or Gavin Williams’ clock too soon I think he eventually gets a chance this year if another injury occurs in the rotation or Plesac/Civale loses their jobs. He’s a LHP, something not seen often in Cleveland’s rotation, and a hidden gem. He channels a lot of Clayton Kershaw, but following a full season in the organization has raised his fastball velocity from the upper 80s to the mid-90s. The rest of his stuff is good too. I see a path for him.Milner: With the situation of catcher I’ll say Bo Naylor. At some point, the Mike Zunino and Cam Gallagher pairing will be broken up eventually will Bo Naylor stepping in and play a role on this team. I think the bat and approach are ready for the jump to the big leagues (if you watched the world baseball classic he handled the jump in talent fairly well) if the walk rate of 12.8% can carry over to the big leagues, Bo Naylor has the potential to have a good rookie campaign in 2023.Gerbs: Can a player that made their first All-Star team, won their first Gold Glove, and finished 6th in MVP votes really break out again? If so, Andres Gimenez is about to become the next household name outside of Cleveland, with (my prediction) a 20/20 season while playing upper-echelon level second base defense and rising to the top of power rankings in the sport. If that was his breakout, and I can't claim him again, get ready for more Sponge Bob as Oscar Gonzalez is going to tank 30 dingers and continue to win the hearts of America.Krall: This is a weird category because there were so many breakouts last season. The lineup and bullpen are riddled with post-breakout players: Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, Oscar Gonzalez, Sam Hentges, Trevor Stephan, and Eli Morgan each became a household name across Cuyahoga County and beyond. A Kwan power surge or a Gonzalez-chasing moratorium could happen, but that would elevate each of them to budding superstar status, and I’m not enough of a homer to do that. One player who does seem primed for an uptick this season though is Josh Naylor. Naylor’s steep climb from post-hype sleeper to severely injured tragedy to righty masher is well-documented; I don’t have much to add. All I know is Naylor seems to be in an unfamiliar position this season, which is to say, for the first time in his career, there’s little mystery where on the diamond or in the country he’s going to play, or how his previously shattered ankle will hold up. So that’s the “why,” but the “how” remains a question to me. His approach at the dish is the polar opposite of Steven Kwan’s pinpoint focus, and until his plan becomes more refined than “do awesome shit,” I don’t see how he can be more than a good hitter. That said, I believe in the person, I believe in the organization, and I believe in job and health security being important. He’s a Hello Fresh kit (not a sponsor, though I’d take a free trial if you’re out there): all the ingredients for a balanced, incredible meal, er, hitter are there. They just need to be assembled into the obvious final product.Bode: It feels odd given how many truly young players are on the Guardians roster, but my pick is Myles Straw. He won a Gold Glove in 2022, but he was described by some in the media as "swinging a wet newspaper," which is not a compliment to his hitting acumen. He also has Will Brennan breathing down his neck alongside a cavalcade of prospects should Brennan falter. While becoming a defensive and baserunning specialist would not be the worst thing for the Guardians, I am setting his over/under on fWAR at 2.8 and am slamming my chip down on the over side. (( Projections have Straw between 1.6 & 2.3 fWAR, so I wanted to raise the bar here. ))
What player not on the Opening Day roster do you expect to make the biggest impact on the 2023 season?
Forness: These questions feel like I should recycle Cantillo, but I’m going with Micah Pries. Pries is an older prospect, but he has a rare combination of contact, power, and speed. He turned a lot of heads in Spring Training, and if not for his age (25) he might be considered a strong prospect in this farm system. Plus he’s flexible in a lineup, capable of playing first base or either corner outfield spot. He’s primed to be this year’s Oscar Gonzalez.Milner: I think it might be Tanner Bibee for me. The reason is what I stated with the rotation, along with his meteoric rise. Bibee over the course of a calendar year has entered the conversation of the future of the rotation in 2 short years since being drafted in 2021. In those 2 years he went from averaging 90 mph to 98 mph, on top of having great control dating back to college there isn’t a question he’ll make his debut. This will ultimately depend on who of Civale and Plesac opens the door ((My money is on Plesac, FWIW.)) but I think he’ll make a huge difference the day he makes his debut.Gerbs: I'm stealing him before Ethan can because I answered this first, but I really think Joey Cantillo will be up, up soon, and will take over the SP4 or SP5 spot from Aaron Civale or Zach Plesac. Get ready to see a bunch of the "They can't keep getting away with this!" GIFs from White Sox and Twins fans on Twitter when JoeyCans starts hurling 95 from the left side and looking like shades of Clayton Kershaw. We all talk about TOAO ((The One And Only, for those unfamiliar with the nickname we labeled Logan T Allen when there were two in the organization.)) Logan Allen and Daniel Espino and Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams, but Cantillo is the secret weapon that is coming.Krall: There is one right answer to this one. Bo Naylor is hopefully the catcher of the future, but we can’t know that for sure if he’s in Columbus.Bode: Leaving Bo Naylor for me to select feels like cheating. Here we have a top-rated prospect with a solid-to-good profiled bat playing a premium defensive position for which the ballclub needs to find a large amount of quality innings. Naylor also already was on the Guardians last September and his older brother is in the clubhouse to help him on any needed transition. Playing for his national team at the World Baseball Classic (( Oh yeah, he's also good enough to be on a national team and he was Cal Quantrill's personal catcher for them, which, you know, might come in handy this year. )) might have taken away his opportunity to convince the organization to just put him on the Opening Day roster, but I am confident he will have plenty of chances to contribute this season.
What other players in the minors are you going to be closely tracking?
Forness: Farmer Ethan’s time to shine. Obviously, I’m watching the big names at the top of the farm and the prospect rankings, but outside of the big names I’m keeping an eye on: Micah Pries - 1B/OF Joe Lampe - OF Justin Campbell - RHP Parker Messick - LHP Ryan Webb - LHP Jack Leftwich - RHP Gabriel Rodriguez - 3B Will Dion - LHP Ethan Hankins - RHP Wuilfredo Antunez - OF Nate Furman - 2BMilner: I’ll probably keep an eye on pitchers in the system. To me, the rotation was set at the beginning of the year, but my feeling is guys will be given plenty of opportunities to establish themselves for the future and now. With the uncertainty of Plesac and Civale guys like Bibee, Cantillo, Allen, etc. at some point will get opportunities to step up if needed. Right now we are seeing an audition for Hunter Gaddis with McKenzie's injury, he can also factor into the conversation as the season goes on. That is what my main focus will be for the season.Gerbs: Admittedly, I don't and can't keep track of the minors as much as I should or could, but the progression of Daniel Espino will be what has my attention. Yes, it's a chalk answer, but Espino is already tracked to be back in mid-May and could be a factor for the big club, whether on the major league roster or on a different team with a stud on our roster. He's as good as any pitcher in the organization when healthy, but that's a big "but" so seeing what he has will be important.Krall: See FanGraphs dot com, subheading The Board, filter organization to “CLE.” There’s your answer. Cheekiness aside, I’m really curious what will happen to Tyler Freeman in 2023. Fresh off losing the battle for the utility infielder gig, the walls seem to be closing in on Freeman’s future in Cleveland. Andres Gimenez and Jose Ramirez will man two of the three eligible infield positions for the long haul, and the Guardians have a fully stocked quiver to take aim at the third spot. Moreover, Freeman’s weak arm and relative lack of athleticism limit his defensive upside and flexibility. And so, if the long time top prospect is ever to earn a job with Cleveland, he has to rake. Here’s hoping he makes any decision to move him a difficult one.Bode: The Guardians overall farm system is ranked anywhere from No. 2 to No. 4 depending on the publication, so I will be watching quite a bit as the future is fun to consider across both pitchers and position players. But, let's confine this to a subset of players who might contribute to the 2023 ballclub down the stretch: Allen, Cantillo, Misiaszek, Brito... and, we can dream on Rocchio, Martinez, and/or Valera making such an impact in Columbus this season that they demand to be introduced in Cleveland.
How do you measure a successful 2023 season for the Guardians?
Forness: Success has a lot of measures. As I’m writing this the club has locked up Andres Gimenez to a 7-year $106.5 million contract extension and has more in the works. That’s success to me. Building off of last season; 92 wins, AL Central champions, Game 5 exit in the ALDS. If we’re going purely off on-field play then this team should at least play for a pennant this year. That would be successful for me, but it’s more important they continue (at least for now) to do what they can to keep the window open. More extensions, some roster decluttering/trades, those can also register on the success meter to me.Milner: The postseason is a bare minimum and a deep run of some kind is expected. I think we’re in a place right now to expect such things and aim for those heights. When the club has the ammo to make major trades and adequate Star power from pitching to hitting, I think the team realized that the window is opening and they should act like it. So to me, we’re getting to that point when talking about a world series shouldn’t be out of the question.Gerbs: On the WFNY CornerCast last week, I predicted a 90-win season and a loss in the World Series. Success for this team in 2023 will be close to that for me. If they are able to make the ALCS, win or lose, that's a win for the organization. It's a sign that the moves they've made worked, that the development of the roster is on track, and it's a sign to fans that they are serious contenders.Krall: I’d love to pound the table and say they need to be a real World Series threat for me to be happy. I understand those who feel that way; 1948 is a goddamn eternity ago. But, there were so many breakouts and so much good will built up from last season, a successful 2023 merely needs to legitimize the Guardians as true blue contenders for the remainder of the decade. If that means simply repeating the success of last season, I’m completely fine with it.Bode: End-goals are tough to predict "because baseball," but the Guardians have set themselves up so that anything less than an AL Central division title would be wholly disappointing. To be considered truly successful, the team will have to prove most of the youth playing well in 2022 can consistently do so, while supplementing (or even supplanting) them with more of the incoming talent. In other words, 2023 has the potential to set the stage for at least a half decade of dominance. No pressure.