Cleveland Guardians Top 30 Prospects: #14 Gabriel Arias

The Cleveland Guardians have grown some impressive trade trees in my lifetime, and paired with the organization's ability to consistently identify talent it's long been a way for the club to recover quickly from trading big names. For instance, the Bartolo Colon trade tree stemming from 2002 and can be traced all the way back to Andres Gimenez and includes the likes of Trevor Bauer, Bryan Shaw, Brandon Phillips, and Carlos Carrasco. It's been a hallmark of the Guardians organization to getting back to contention quickly, even though they still home-grow a majority of their contributors.My number 14 prospect is the last member of my top 30 the Guardians didn't draft or sign as an international free agent, and it's a trade tree as one-sided as they come in Cleveland's favor. In 2014 Cleveland traded relief pitcher Vinnie Pestano to the Los Angeles Angels for Mike Clevinger, who Cleveland flipped to the San Diego Padres in 2020 for package of six players, including current roster fixtures Josh Naylor and Cal Quantrill, my 17th-ranked Guardians prospect Joey Cantillo, and our focus today; infielder prospect Gabriel Arias.[embed]https://twitter.com/CleGuardians/status/1575262124259131394?s=20&t=xAR6_LlTnvrL6eSskWzhkw[/embed]The Padres signed Arias as an international free agent out of Venezuela in 2016, and spent three seasons in San Diego's low minors before joining Cleveland during the pandemic-cancelled 2020 Minor League season. He spent much of that year training at the team's alternate site with other top prospects on Cleveland's emergency player list, and something caught coaches' eyes. When Minor League baseball returned in 2021 Arias reported to Triple-A Columbus as 21-year-old, skipping Double-A altogether. He fared well, slashing .284/.348/.454 over 115 games for the Clippers while one of the youngest players at the level.Arias regressed somewhat in 2022, but ultimately made his Major League debut and spent two small stints with the Guardians. In 77 games for the Clippers this past season he slashed .240/.310/.406 with nine doubles, 13 home runs, 25 walks (7.7%), 78 strikeouts (24.1%) and an 89 wRC+. Some unfortunate injury luck is partially to blame for Arias' disappointing 2022 campaign, but much of the issue still lies with the fatal flaw in his profile.[embed]https://twitter.com/JL_Baseball/status/1547020195700547589?s=20&t=xAR6_LlTnvrL6eSskWzhkw[/embed]Arias has three legitimate tools. He has a cannon for an arm, he can field any position on the infield with decisive lateral movement and a quick twitch, and he can hit for power. However Arias' bat is what prevents him from being in serious consideration as an every day player. A combination of an over-aggressive approach at the plate the subpar bat-to-ball skills significantly limit what his ceiling could be. Despite putting up good exit velocities in the minors Arias' aggressiveness has lead to a career strikeout rate of 26% in the minors, and his inability to consistently make good contact has generated a career 48.7% ground ball rate. Certainly not ideal for a player with his power potential.There's good news for Arias even though I'm currently low on his bat. The first is he showed some promise in his second small stint with Cleveland, managing to hit .250 with seven walks to eight strikeouts over 10 games in September and October. The second is that he's just about to turn 23. Arias has been on the younger side for any level since joining the Guardians, and it's clear there's something there they like. The player development program has done more with less for pitchers, sure, but developing bats has been a recent boon for the farm system. It sounds simple enough to say, but if the coaching staff can improve the bat-to-ball skills even slightly then Arias is a four tool player that should be in the lineup. The problem is, that's not so simple, but that upside is what keeps him ranked at 14th. The List so Far:15. Jaison Chourio16. Will Brennan17. Joey Cantillo18. Juan Brito19. Nate Furman20. Petey Halpin21. Parker Messick22. Doug Nikhazy23. Tanner Burns24. Joe Lampe25. Isaiah Greene26. Jake Fox27. Jhonkensy Noel28. Jack Leftwich29. Trenton Denholm30. Peyton Battenfield