Cleveland Guardians Top 30 Prospects: #23 Tanner Burns

I want to do something a little different with this introduction and play some Indians/Guardians trivia. I'll list the names below this paragraph, so let's begin. Since 2010, how many pitchers that the Cleveland Indians/Guardians have signed as free agents have started a game for the team? Bonus points if you can come up with close to half of the names, but it's definitely a thinker. Are you ready for the answer?Seven total free-agent signees of the Cleveland Indians/Guardians have started at least one game for them since 2010. The list is as follows, as well as the number of starts:- Scott Kazmir (29)- Jefry Rodriguez (8)- Shaun Marcum (6)- Brett Myers (4)- Bruce Chen (2)- Chris Seddon (2)- Bryan Shaw (2)That's a grand total of 53 starts in 12 seasons, over 1900 games played by Cleveland that have been started by a pitcher not born of their system or acquired via trade. Sure, we can play the "question spending" card if you really want to, but I would counter with this: if the Guardians can identify and develop talent so well that 97.3% of their games in a span of 12 years were started by players they drafted or traded for, do you really need to spend on pitching? It's a testament to just how great the player development program I've been praising really is.All of this brings us to my number 23 prospect in the Guardians farm system, 24-year-old right-handed pitcher Tanner Burns. Burns was selected in the first round by Cleveland in the 2020 draft out of Auburn, and at the time was the highest draft pick the Guardians had used on a college arm since taking Drew Pomeranz fifth overall in 2010. I could keep going with random unrelated facts, but let's get into Burns as a pitcher and what he is to the Guardians' farm system.Burns played all of 2022, his second season in the organization, with Double-A Akron, making 21 starts for the Rubberducks. He compiled a record of 3-7 over 88.2 innings pitched with a 3.55 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 45 walks, 92 strikeouts, and a 5.12 FIP. The ERA and strikeouts (23.7% of batters faced) jump out as positives, but some of the other numbers raise some eyebrows. The answers to Burns' on-field performance lie more in his general makeup than any one glaring flaw.[embed]https://twitter.com/CleGuardPro/status/1568764866055360512?s=20&t=64bH9xyXrdKjW1PyP7eMzQ[/embed]Burns utilizes a four-pitch mix of fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. The fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s, the slider may end up being a plus offering, and the curveball and changeup are effective when Burns is throwing strikes. That last bit is the key. Burns' command is pretty inconsistent through his first 39 Minor League starts, resulting in a 10.5% BB% between High-A Lake County and Akron, but when he's on he throws all four pitches for strikes and backs it up with a 26% K% in the same span.[embed]https://twitter.com/JL_Baseball/status/1406263998450970628?s=20&t=64bH9xyXrdKjW1PyP7eMzQ[/embed]Self-inflicted wounds worry me the most with Burns, and it's the main reason he's sliding in the wrong direction on my top 30. Burns walked 9.2% of the batters he faced with a FIP of 4.35 in 2021 and 11.6% of batters with a 5.12 FIP in 2022. Despite the good strikeout numbers Burns has outperformed his FIP so far but hasn't shown consistent signs of improvement with both of those numbers increasing in 2022. Sure, you can expect some fluctuation since he was playing at a more advanced level, but those numbers will catch up to him sooner rather than later unless he makes some serious improvements in his command.I understand the appeal of Burns, he had a first-round pedigree out of college and the upside has always been a back-of-the-rotation innings eater, but unless he reigns in the walks and gives up fewer hard-hit fly balls then Burns will have trouble sticking anywhere in the organization. The Guardians have historically done more with less, and though he was a little old for his level in 2022 it was just his second season of professional ball. I'm willing to see how Burns performs in the first half of 2023 before bumping him entirely from the list, but he fell quite a few places from where I initially put him. I look forward to his 2025 Cy Young campaign.The List so Far:24. Joe Lampe25. Isaiah Greene26. Jake Fox27. Jhonkensy Noel28. Jack Leftwich29. Trenton Denholm30. Peyton Battenfield