WFNY RoundTable: Week 1 versus Dallas
We did it everyone, we survived the summer and have NFL (and more importantly Browns) football for the next 18 weeks of the regular season and hopefully some playoff football on the coast of Lake Erie. Every week of the NFL season, we will have Roundtable questions posed to our staff and answers given here as well to prep you for the storylines of this week’s game.
1) The Browns haven’t had much if any roster turnover on the line, but it seems to be a glaring hole. What do you think the lineup will be for Week 1 against Dallas?
Fleming: The Browns offensive line has been one of the few roster questions this training camp, and while there is a bit more optimism that SOMEONE will play, there still isn't a ton of clarity. I think the starting O-Line against Dallas will be Conklin, Bitonio, Pocic, Teller and Jones, with Jack Conklin starting at LT for the first time since his college days. I'm hopeful that Conklin will be able to transition over without any issues, and that he is fully back from his knee injury from Week 1 of last year. Regardless of Conklin's performance in Week 1, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jed Wills regain his starting spot at LT whenever he returns from injury. I think the front office needs to know what kind of player he is after his injury as his rookie contract is nearing its end.
Seth: Four of five positions are settled on the O-line. LT will come down to Conklin and Hudson III. It's a coin flip as both are splitting reps at practice as of Thursday. My gut tells me they roll with Hudson on Sunday.
Milner: It’s been a weird training camp for the O-line, but I think we got a good idea of the four guys manning the trenches outside of LT. It’s good to hear that Jedrick Wills is back at practice, but the team realizes that it’s suicide to trot him out there with little to no practice all training camp, so they’ll give him time to get ready in the meantime. My guess is that it’s either Hudson or Conklin in the short term to face the Cowboys.
Gerbs: Conklin or bust for me. James Hudson is not a real NFL player. Conklin has practiced the most out of him and Wills and putting Hudson out there against Micah Parsons is asking for trouble. I’d rather run out hobbled Jed if it’s Hudson. No. Conklin.
2) The big splash for the offense was through trade. How much do you think Jerry Jeudy will be used? (Guess a statline)
Fleming: Toward the beginning of the season, I think Jerry Jeudy will be used as a second option WR to Amari Cooper, with a slight bias to Jeudy being used to stretch the field vertically in some of the new spread-style passing schemes that we might see. I would expect him to be featured in some of the gadget plays and quick screens that Kevin Stefanski has shown an affinity for, following the general theme of getting our best players the ball in space. Based on how the Browns are expected to throw the ball more, and the age of Amari Cooper, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jeudy finish the year with 100 or more targets.
Fantasy-wise I think Jeudy is the third most desirable pass catcher in the Browns offense, with Cooper and Njoku getting the nod ahead of him. 65 receptions, 900 yards and 6 touchdowns would be a great start for his first year in Cleveland and would put some fears to rest that the Browns overpaid when restructuring his contract.
Seth: I envision Jeudy to be integral to the offense and be top-3 in targets this season. Week 1 for Jeudy: 7 targets, 4 catches, 63 yards.
Matt: If training camp is any indication, and with a new focus on the passing attack, I expect a good year for Jeudy. It won’t be a crazy stat line, but something in the 700+ yard range with 3-4 touchdowns seems like a good number when paired next to Amari Cooper.
Gerbs: 3-for-4 57 and no tudder. We don’t really know what Jeudy is because he’s had a collection of QBs throwing him the ball that makes The Jersey look like the HoF. Will he be the big play guy? Will he be a route runner? Gadget? Who knows. But I do think he has explosiveness that will allow for him to get open down the field and change some angles for the offense. It just might be a week or two before it gets off the ground.
3) Nick Chubb will be out for at least four weeks. Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong, and D’Onta Foreman will be the stable of RBs. How effective will they be?
Fleming: Not effective. I think this will be a jarring change for Browns fans, as we are used to the Brown's running game setting the tone for the offense, but I do not think the Browns run game will be effective in obvious run situations. Jerome Ford really struggled on first and second downs last year, and was near the bottom of the league in yards before first contact. The Browns will be running against lighter boxes this year, and out of 11 personnel more often, which might alleviate some of those issues, but until Nick Chubb gets back I wouldn't expect the Browns run game to be the same game-closing machine that it has been in the past.
D'Onta Foreman is a name I would watch out for. I expect him to play the Kareem Hunt role from last year, getting most of the goal line and short-yardage work until Chubb returns.
In deeper fantasy leagues he could deliver some value as a desperation flex play in these early weeks, vulturing a few touchdowns away from the rest of the offense.
Seth: Not very. This is a below-average running back room and it's up to the scheme and O-ine to create advantages.
Matt: I think it will be serviceable, especially against the opponent they’ll face. Sure, they might have a tough time against the Cowboys, but against the Giants, Jaguars, and Raiders? I believe it’ll work just fine unless injuries wreck the room. knocks on all the wood.
Gerbs: Week 1, they will be fine. Dallas’ defense isn’t known for shutting down running games and Ford will do enough to make it look like it was a good game. But against some of the tougher defenses, especially in the division? Whew we need Chubbers back.
4) Somehow we haven’t brought up Deshaun Watson yet. His playing time in the preseason was non-existent. Do you think he will be rusty or will he ball out?
Fleming: The rust is unavoidable - he hasn't played nearly enough football in the last 4 years to not be rusty. That being said, I am a firm believer that he can regain the form he had in Houston, or at least 80-90% of it. My expectations are not sky high out of the gate, but I'm not sure he needs to ball out for the Browns to be great. If I had a phone line straight to Deshaun, I would offer him this advice - play within yourself for the first 6 weeks. Let the defense win you some games, lean on the run game and quick passses, and dont make the mistakes that kill you. This team is good enough to win without a hero at QB, so stop trying to be one.
Seth: I'm leaning rusty. Watson has a knack for starting seasons slow. Those previous seasons didn't include coming off major shoulder surgery.
Matt: I don’t think you can answer confidently either way. He hasn’t played live snaps in a game since his Herculon effort in Baltimore last year, but even then, it was more of a fantastic second half than a good overall game. I do believe they are trying everything in their power to recapture the old Deshaun; the hire of Ken Dorsey was to innovate Kevin Stefanski’s offense to accentuate what Watson does best on the field and I hope it does but it might take time, just for the sake of the question I’ll say he’ll look fine in his first game back.
Gerbs: My head says ease back in, take it slow, lean on Ford and the running game and slow-starting screens to David Njoku in the flat. But my heart…my heart syas Watson comes out firing and this has all been a smokeshow. Like Michael Scott, I’m ready to get hurt again.
5) Dak Prescott is without a new deal but CeeDee Lamb got paid. How will the secondary stifle the second-highest-paid WR?
Fleming: Denzel Ward, MJ Emerson and the rest of the Browns’ vaunted secondary will make CeeDee Lamb fantasy owners question all of their life choices, and make Jerry Jones regret that monster contract a bit. Huntington Bank Field (ewwww) will be deafening on Sunday, and the entirety of the Cowboys’ offense will struggle to operate - Dak Prescott will have very little time to throw and they will be forced to get CeeDee the ball through alternative means like end arounds and screen passes. My projection for CeeDee is a quiet 6 for 85 and no touchdowns.
I could see Brandin Cooks finding a deep touchdown against a busted coverage in the slot - It wouldn't be a Browns week 1 without one of those, but the defense will be too keyed in on CeeDee Lamb for him to be as effective as advertised.
Seth: CeeDee will likely get his, but the Browns need to take away the other weapons. I'm looking at you, Jake Ferguson.
Matt: I’m very confident that the secondary will cause problems on Sunday. The Cowboys are pretty much a one-dimensional team on paper, and they should put them in a lot of third-in-longs. They can definitely force a lot of turnovers against Dak Prescott, who is capable of melting down.
Gerbs: The coverage is going to allow for the pressure to get there this week, rather than vice versa. The Dallas line is big, even with a rookie at left tackle, and could wear down the faster defensive line of Cleveland, but Myles will get his and I can see a multiple pick game coming for Dak as he presses to get a new deal.
6) Cleveland smothered running games last year by getting and holding onto leads. Will that continue in Week 1 with Ezekiel Elliot returning to the great state of Ohio?
Fleming: If it wasn't Ezekiel Elliot I would be more concerned. It's tough: I love Zeke - "85 yards through the heart of the south" is one of my favorite memories as a Buckeye fan, and his presence (and belly) on those Buckeye teams will forever be a time I hold dear. He also is incredibly washed and Jerry Jones just can't give up the ghost when it comes to some of "his guys." I do have some mild concerns about this Browns linebacker room and their ability to hold up against the run throughout the year. There isn't a lot of depth at the position, and the departures of Anthony Walker and Sione Takitaki have stripped the position of some of its size and leadership.
Seth: The Cowboys have one of the worst running back rooms in the league. If Dallas can run it with efficiency and set up the pass, the Browns are in big trouble. I don't think that happens, the Browns stifle their run attack.
Matt: If this were 2018, I would be worried. It’s 2024, and the duo of Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott looks like barbecue chicken to the Browns defense.
Gerbs: Everyone has been hating on the linebackers, but I think the additions of Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush are good adds, and with Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah inked to an extension, they are going to get even better.
7) What’s your score prediction?
Fleming: 27-17 Browns. LETS GO
Seth: 20-17 Browns
Matt: Browns 24-19
Gerbs: 23-17 Browns. Watson throwing two tudders, one on the ground for Ford and the defense getting two picks off Dak. 1-0.