The Browns (Almost) Impossible Path to the Playoffs
The Browns are not going to make the playoffs. Let’s get that out of the way first. Sure, they’re not technically eliminated yet, but there is almost no way they are going to make the playoffs. I mean, to read or write an article about the Browns toothpick-wide “path” to the playoffs would certainly be a waste of everyone’s time. So, if you’ve got that time to kill then here is how the Brown could make the playoffs.
The AFC standings before Monday Night Football in Week 12
Step 1: Browns win out and finish 9-8.
The remaining schedule breaks down as follows:
@ Broncos (7-5)
@ Steelers (8-3)
Vs. Chiefs (10-1)
@ Bengals (4-7)
Vs. Dolphins (5-6)
@ Ravens (7-4)
Literally all those teams have a better record than the Browns. They are a combined 41-26. Four of the games are on the road. It is extraordinarily unlikely that Cleveland can beat even two of those teams, let alone all of them (including the defending NFL champions) but we are rejecting reality for a few more paragraphs so let’s soldier on. Cut to a 9-8 Browns team – by itself that is not enough so they will need some help.
The good news is the Browns would jump the Bengals in the standings by virtue of beating them in Step 1. They would be split 1-1 in the season series but if all goes to plan the Browns will finish 5-1 in the division and would jump ahead of Cincy in the standings as their best division record would be 3-3.
Step 2: Colts lose at least one more game.
Indianapolis has a very late bye, but they still need to play @NE, @DEN, vs. TEN, @NYG, and vs. JAX. Those teams are not quite as good as the ones the Browns will face, but the Colts have already lost to the Jaguars this year so anything could happen down the stretch. If the Colts suffer a loss, they’ll also be 9-8. However, and this doesn’t seem possible, the Browns would own the tiebreaker over them thanks to a superior future conference record of 9-3 versus Indy’s 8-4 (assuming they lost to the Giants) or 7-5 (assuming they lost to an AFC foe). Indy has had a very strange year and them losing one game down the stretch seems slightly more likely than going 5-0.
Step 3: Dolphins lose at least two more games.
This one is half in the Browns’ control thanks to their Week 17 matchup. Assuming Cleveland wins that one the Dolphins only need to drop one more of @GB, vs. NYJ, @HOU, vs. SF, and @NYJ. Two tough road trips to Wisconsin and Texas suggest at least one of those could go south for Miami. A Browns win over the Fins mean Cleveland would own the head-to-head and would jump ahead if both teams end up with a 9-8 record.
Step 4: The Broncos go 2-3 or worse down the stretch.
This is the toughest one. Yes, the Browns will play the Broncos in Mile High next week, but then Denver would need to drop two games among vs. IND, @LAC, @CIN, and vs. KC. Kansas City would be the best bet for a loss, but by the last week of the season it is possible the Chiefs are already locked into the one-seed and would only be playing scrubs and backups. The best sequence would be to have Denver lose both road games at the Bengals (who are playing for nothing) and the Chargers (which will likely feel like a home game in LA). Nothing is impossible of course, but this would be a challenge.
Step 5: Alternate Plan – Baltimore Falls Apart
The Ravens are 7-4. They’re pretty good this season. CBS Sports gives them a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. Cool. Let’s imagine their wheels immediately start coming off. Their remaining schedule includes @LAC, vs. PHI, @NYG, vs. PIT, @HOU, and vs. CLE. Since the Browns already beat them this season, a second Cleveland win would give them the head-to-head advantage. If we bake that in, then the Ravens would need to finish 2-3 or worse to close out the year. Could you see them losing at Houston? Against the Steelers? The Eagles? In a vacuum any of those are possible. A combination of them gives you a 9-8 Baltimore team which loses the head-to-head with Cleveland.
Step 6: Just in Case
There are two other 3-8 teams in the AFC – the Jets and Titans. Just to be on the safe side each should lose at least one more game to get out of Cleveland’s way. Shouldn’t be a problem.
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Fresh off a playoff appearance in 2023 the Browns were supposed to be contenders, at least in the thick of the playoff hunt by Thanksgiving if not leading the division. The losses have been maddening, baffling, and frustrating. Those words can also describe the wins. No one knows who is playing quarterback, running back, or left tackle next year. With an eye to the future the Browns should be tanking with reckless abandon so they can draft whoever wins the Heisman Trophy. Still, it’s hard not to watch the Thursday night prime time snow globe win over the team’s biggest rival and think “pro football can be so fun.” Maybe that game was the highlight of the season. (Narrator: “It was.”) But until the team is properly, formally eliminated from the playoffs there is a sliver of a chance. The Browns need between 12 and 15 games to go their way in the season’s final six weeks. In a season in which nothing has gone their way, this feels as likely as playing home games on the moon in 2028. Still, it does give Browns fans something to watch for this Christmas season. And what’s Christmas without a couple miracles?