WFNY Roundtable: Week 2 - at Pittsburgh on MNF

It's a primetime matchup and one that carries a lot of importance for both teams. Pittsburgh doesn't wanna fall to 0-2 on the season and lose a divisional game, while the Browns are trying to win in Pittsburgh for only the 3rd time this century. A chance to go 2-0 on the season and lock in two early divisional games looms for Cleveland, so let's see what the staff has to say in this week's Roundtable.

Nick Chubb ran for over 100 yards against Cinci in Week 1 but has had less success against Pittsburgh in his career, 72.6 yards per game and only two touchdowns in nine games. Will we see more Chubb usage or will the team try to play it backward and "pass to run"?

Andrew: I actually think "pass to run" is going to be the gameplan for this offense in general this year. The book on the Browns right now is still 'stop Chubb at all costs and dare the Browns to beat you through the air'. That book won't change until Watson shows the league he is back to his old form. That being said, I haven't checked the weather forecast yet, but if Monday night is a normal weather night, I fully expect Chubb to get a little more usage than he did in Week 1. Unless Pittsburgh lives up to its House of Horrors reputation for the Browns and Cleveland is down early and has to rely on throwing to get back into the game.Bode: The entire Stefanski playbook is built upon the run looking like it could be a pass and the pass looking like it could be a run. Yes, this is show in RPO and PRO sets, but it is also a general principle for how the offense operates. As such, there is no one used to set the other up. It is the possibility of both that allows the space with which to operate. Having a quarterback capable of taking advantage of the space and a running back able to see the opening of lanes is key. Week 1 showed some good things there.Chris: The passing offense started to find some rhythm against Cincy after Deshaun got his clock cleaned in the 2nd quarter, so I expect to see him connecting on a couple deep looks on Monday. That being said, with Cam Heyward out and it being a road national TV game, riding your best players is the best option. Nick Chubb is the best running back in football, I expect him to get around 20 carries and have another 100+ yard game. He may not carry the offense (by design), but he will be the best offensive player.Corey: Chubb averaged 17.7 attempts per game in 2022 and toted the rock 18 times in Week 1. As much as the Browns want to build Deshaun Watson's confidence and give him plenty of passing attempts, Chubb's power on the ground is unbelievable. Just make sure you run to the opposite side of where T.J. Watt is lined up.Gerbs: Using Chubb is and always should be the game plan. I don't care as much as rush attempts or targets, but he needs to be utilized to help negate any rust Watson still might have. As Chris pointed out, Watson was coming out of it as Week 1 went along, but Chubb needs the rock. 150 all-purpose yards and at least a tudder for Chubb tonight.

Deshaun Watson got better as Week 1 went along, finishing with a stat line of 16-of-29 for 154 yards, one touchdown, and one pick. He was plagued by the weather but had many throws skipping along the ground or overthrown in the rain. What kind of performance could we see out of Watson against a good Pittsburgh defense?

Andrew: This is the entire thing with the Browns. This team will go as far as Watson can take it. If Week 1 was just weather creating a heavy, slippery football and Watson is fine, the Browns are going to be a formidable team. If the weather is just masking an issue with Watson's accuracy, this team is in trouble. We knew this coming into the year and Week 1 didn't give us a satisfactory answer. I have now looked at the forecast for Pittsburgh and Monday night is looking like perfect football weather. I'm hoping we get a better answer this week.Bode: Is the Steeler defense good? Heyward is out and the 49ers had 188 rushing yards. These are not the Steelers of yesteryear on either side of the ball. I'm not sure what Watson will be in 2023 as there is an incredibly wide error margin on his performance potential, but I'm not sold on Pittsburgh being "The Test" of it either.Chris: As long as the line keeps Deshaun relatively clean from TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith, it is reasonable to expect a good game for Watson. Last week reminded me not only of last year but the first game back in a Cavs uniform for LeBron in 2014. He looked too jazzed up to appease the crowd, leading to rushing through his normal body movements and resulting in oddly short and eradicate passes. Hopefully, that's out of his system now and we can see his legs and this scheme carve up a still-stout Steelers D.Corey: Monday's forecast in the Steel City - 65 degrees and clear at kickoff. Weather may have hindered Watson on Week 1, but he will not have that excuse tonight. Cooper's questionable status is worrisome, but no matter who he is throwing to seeing footballs skipping like stones will be a big red flag.Gerbs: The Steelers secondary has been piecemeal for the last few years outside of Minkah Fitzpatrick and I believe we will see a full-on 2020 Watson game this week. Juking and jiving and actually hitting the long bombs this week, Watson throws for over 250.

Jack Conklin tore his ACL and MCL and has been placed on the injured reserve. Rookie Dawand Jones came in to fill for him and played well against good players like Chris Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson. How do you think he will fare against All-Pro TJ Watt?

Andrew: This is such a frightening matchup. I have been higher on Dawand than most and I think he has a future as a starting RT in the NFL, but All-Pro tackles struggle to block All-Pro Watt. TJ is on another level right now. He's healthy and he looks like a motivated monster. This is probably going to be a pretty rough week for Dawand. But I will say, if he can trust his instincts and try his best to keep his body in front of Watt, he's at least a monstrous human being for Watt to move. How Dawand fares will probably depend heavily on how much he trusts his technique because as a rookie he doesn't have the instincts built up yet to deal with a player like Watt.Bode: I don't think Callahan leaves Jones on an island with Watt all day. The offense will likely mix up their looks, send pull help on runs, and chip help on pass sets to frustrate the one true star the Steelers have on defense.Chris: This is the key matchup for the offense. Watt has fully formed into a game wrecker. Jones has the form and potential of a shutdown tackle in pass pro, but giving the Steelers a chance to see some tape and prepare for him will be the real test. The rookie should hold his own, but I won't be surprised to see a couple of quick pressures allowed. If Jones can avoid allowing a sack, I like the Browns' chances of winning.Corey: I love seeing Buckeyes on the Browns' roster, but I wish Jones' starting debut wasn't such a tall task. I think Watt will find his way to a pair of sacks and will hurry Watson throughout the night. The key for the Browns QB will be using his legs (which he had some success with against the Bengals) and extending plays to find someone downfield.Gerbs: This is the hinge point of the game, in my opinion. We've acknowledged that Watson gets sacked more than most because of keeping the plays alive, so Watt will get his, but I think Jones has the frame and the help to keep Watt at bay. With Heyward out, there just isn't much more on the line that will hurt the team.

Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was roughed up by the San Francisco 49ers defense, throwing two interceptions and getting sacked five times. Cleveland also had a great defensive performance in Week 1, holding the Bengals to 142 yards of total offense. What can Cleveland do to replicate that performance Monday Night?

Andrew: To me, this is Cleveland's biggest advantage in this game. I didn't see the Pittsburgh game last week so I can't speak to anything specific the 49ers did to create that pressure, but I think the Browns will surely once again trust their DBs to cover for 2-3 seconds while Jim Schwartz deals up timely blitzes and the talent on the D-Line pins their ears back to get to Pickett, forcing him to make quick decisions.Bode: Pickett is a bad quarterback. So, the Browns' defense is tasked with ensuring they don't let a bad quarterback beat them. In past years, that happened far too often. Schwartz's schemes in Week 1 showed a MUCH different defensive scheme. So, there's some hope that bad quarterbacks won't be able to sit back and beat the Browns anymore.Chris: Pressure, pressure, speed to the ball, and more pressure. The Steelers' offensive line is not great, and they're going through changes at tackle after just one week. Even if they were great, the Browns D-line is so deep and talented that I'd still expect an impactful rush on most pass plays. Pickett looked slow by leg, by air, and by mind last week. If he doesn't improve this week, the Browns might not even need to play well to have a good defensive outing.Gerbs: Gotta rush em. Make Pickett feel the pressure to get the ball out. The defense played a masterful game against Cincinnati and Joe Burrow last week, and whatever wasn't aided by Burrow being one-legged is what they need to do this week as well. Keep him unsteady in the pocket and let your big boys eat up front.

We've talked a lot all week about how Cleveland seems to have Cinci's number and that the game felt more of a lock than if it were against other teams. Do you feel like this Pittsburgh game is the same? Give us a vibe check.

Andrew: The same, as in the reverse? I mentioned it above. Other than that incredible playoff game in 2020, Pittsburgh has been a House of Horrors for the Browns. It has spanned numerous owners, GMs, coaches, and players. But I will say this. Last season the vibes seemed off for the Browns right from the start. There are plenty of reasons for that, but the season started with bad vibes and it only got worse from there once the team started blowing games. I really do sense the vibe is significantly better this season. Stefanski and Watson seem to be on the same page and the defense looks like they are fully bought in on what Schwartz wants them to do. This is a confident, hungry team. So no, I do not feel like this game is a lock for Pittsburgh just because of past nightmares in that building.Bode: Pittsburgh is a 5-12 team this year. Any given Sunday and the Browns could certainly play poorly in the national spotlight and lose. But, this is a team that is decidedly not as good as the Browns and my hope is that the team treats them that way.Chris: The vibes are vibing like I've never seen since the Browns returned in 1999. The defense looks fast and confident and genuinely excited for each other when plays are made. The offense has elite talent at every position and should play better with better weather this week. The kicker makes things look easy. All that being said, I never believe anything will come easy against the Steelers. The only time the Browns have come away from Pittsburgh with a win since 2003, Big Ben couldn't even bend over to recover a fumble, and that game still had sweaty palms times towards the end. If the Browns show up and show out with a win on Monday, I'll start believing all the hype I can get.Corey: I remember watching on Sunday Night Football in October 2003 when the Browns last won in Pittsburgh during the regular season. I was in the 8th grade. Vibes in PA are always dodgy, especially in the big prime time moments. Luckily, the Browns players won't care much about that since some of them were in diapers during that game.Gerbs: Vibes are great but uneasy for me. I'm physically unable to say "we are going to win this game" because I've seen it too many times go the other way, but boy do I feel like it's a winnable one. The Steelers are reeling, and it's a great opportunity for Cleveland to get ahead of some things this year and exorcise some demons.

Pick the game: Cleveland is favored on the road -2.5. What's your pick against the spread? Do you think Cleveland can come away with their first regular season win in Pittsburgh since 2003?

Andrew: It does feel to some degree like the smart money is to take the points for Pittsburgh. History tells us this is easy money. I talked last week about how I was hesitant to fully buy in to this team until they prove it to me. They proved something to me last week, but was it enough? I don't know. I'm still a little on the fence. I'm not going to hedge all season, but this game this week will be a huge impact on how I feel about the team this season. And the reason I say that is because I believe on paper, the Browns should win this game by more than 2.5 points. Cleveland has a more talented roster, they looked like the better team last week, and they have the better QB and RB. But even still, the lifelong Cleveland Browns fan in my head won't shut up. If the Browns handle their business this week, I'm muzzling that voice and I am ready to be in on this team. If they give us yet another letdown, I'm probably going to brace myself for another roller coaster ride of a season.Bode: The Browns are the better team. Period. A loss is detrimental to the goals of the season as it is important for good teams to not lose to bad teams. I believe the Browns walk away with the win.Chris: Cleveland should win. I know it sucks to say that because the potential heartbreak of believing it and losing is too scary. But this is the put up or shut up season and everyone in the Browns building knows that. If they want to be a team of consequence, they have to win games like this. I'm picking Browns, by at least 7.Corey: *Shrug emoji* Browns win by 3?Gerbs: Can, should, will. I'm taking the road favorites here Browns, -2.5. End all of the streaks tonight: Mike Tomlin-coached teams are 20-0 in primetime, the Browns haven't won in Pittsburgh during the regular season since the year before I graduated high school...end it all.