WFNY Roundtable: Week 1 - Cincinnati Bengals come to Cleveland

The long wait for NFL football is finally over, and while we were graced with a great football game last night between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, ((Thanks Detroit for hanging a loss on an AFC contender.)) it just isn't the same as a Browns Sunday game. Whether you have plans to be in the Muni Lot pregame or watching on YouTubeTV on the couch, anyone can enjoy our WFNY Roundtable!

Nick Chubb didn't get much run in the preseason but owns Cincinnati, averaging 88.6 YPG and a touchdown in the nine games he's played them. How do you think he fares getting the lion's share of the workload this week?

Bode: Chubb averaged 18 carries per game in 2023 but only two targets per game. Last December, the Bengals altered their entire defensive scheme to stop Chubb from being the focal point. The hope is that he is needed less in the grinding of the run game but participates a bit more in what should be a more pass-heavy offense, which would render such strategies useless.Corey: The secret is out on Nick Chubb - he's good. Browns fans screamed for Chubb to tote the rock more in 2022, but with Kareem Hunt gone and a less-proven backup in Jerome Ford, it'll be interesting to see how number 24 does with an expanded workload this season. Luckily for him, DeShaun Watson's increased comfort with the playbook should lead to more passing plays early in drives and render Chubb's touches less predictable. That should give him an edge and put him on track for 100+ yards on Sunday.Chris: Running the ball with Nick Chubb is not only one of the best plays the Browns can run, it's one of the best available plays to any team in football. I have no questions about that aspect of his game. I am, however, interested in seeing how he's deployed in the passing game. I wonder how much more if at all, he is used to catch the ball out of the backfield. I don't think he has bad hands or is a useless receiver, but he doesn't seem to get the same momentum to his runs catching it as he does on handoffs. Also, how many opportunities does Elijah Moore take from him catching from the backfield? I'm excited to see it. I think he runs for over 100 yards and catches a TD pass.Andrew: I'm not concerned at all about Nick Chubb's lack of preseason workload. We all know how hard he works in the offseason and he'll be ready to go. He rushed for 141 yards in the opener last season against Carolina and I think he'll be primed for a big game against Cincy as long as the Browns don't fall behind early and resort to just passing.Gerbs: Feed. The. Man. I'm slightly worried about the season-long implications of giving him 25+ touches a game, but for Week 1, absolutely not. The man has everything you could ask for and everything opposing teams hate. I wouldn't be surprised if he does get 25 touches+targets this week and goes off for 200 all-purpose yards and a tudder.

Head coach Kevin Stefanski has said he's given the keys to the offense to Deshaun Watson. What does that mean to you  and give me a target breakdown of the top 4 guys (Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku).

Bode: I doubt the Browns offense cares or considers a target breakdown ahead of games. Watson was elite in Houston because of his ability to read and find the weak spots of the defense. The Bengals will dictate who gets the most targets as they cannot cover the entirety of the field the same way. The good news for the Browns is that they now have multiple weapons that can take advantage of those weaknesses.Corey: I don't think Watson will conduct peak Peyton Manning-level audibles at the line, but I expect him to make more adjustments than last year. That cuts both ways: predict a blitz then adapt and you're back, but shift a play into the scrum and you're washed. I think DPJ will be the primary target for the first quarter at least. Everyone expects Cooper to get the looks so the secondary will key on him. I think DPJ on a slant can go for a slate of first downs.Chris: Deshaun is the driver: He controls everything that happens behind the wheel of the offense. Kevin is the lead mechanic and engineer: He makes sure everything is working and the driver is in the best place to win the race. Deshaun is going to do things out of pocket that are not planned, but as long as the machine is well-oiled, it'll handle an aggressive driver. I used to be a mechanic and this is the best I can do for metaphor and analogy. Anyway, the targets will be a little unique this week, in my estimation. I go back to Anthony Schwartz's first game where he seemed a little featured (and it was all down hill from there). Stefanski likes to show off new toys a little, so I'll say 10 targets for Moore, 8 for Cooper, 8 for Njoku, and 5 for DPJ.Andrew: I think Watson at his best is a QB who takes what the defense gives. One of his most revered traits as a passer in Houston was his ability to read defenses and make the right pass. Before he was notorious for other things, YouTube was full of clips of him breaking down what defenses were doing for reporters. So I truly believe the Browns' target breakdowns will vary quite a bit this year. I do expect David Njoku to get a lot of looks inside the red zone though. He is still a large target with elite athletic ability.Gerbs: I have no issue letting Watson drive the bus, as it were, given the fact that he is the one on the receiving end of alllllll that money. If you think he's the guy, let him do it, and I think this year, with the snaps from 2022 and a full offseason of work with the team, he's in a position to do it. We didn't get to see a whole bunch of it last year due to the rust, but I think we are ready to be blown away by his play. As for a target breakdown, I expect 10+ for Amari, 5-7 for Moore, Njoku, and DPJ.

Myles Garrett has never had this kind of help along the defensive line, with the front office adding Za'Darius Smith, Ogbo Okoronkwo, and Dalvin Tomlinson. He's famously been the most double-teamed player in the league; how do you think his Week 1 will go?

Bode: Myles Garrett has been amazing... but, he's been somehow even more amazing than his own high standards against Cincinnati. The Bengals are going to make the rest of the defensive line beat them as I doubt they change their Myles-overload strategy in Week 1. It's up to the upgraded players around him to make future opponents reconsider that philosophy.Corey: Cincinnati's offensive line is better than their Super Bowl season, but Myles will get his stats. Regardless of protection, I expect at least one sack, two tackles for loss, and let's throw in a deflected pass just for kicks. If Smith and Okoronkwo can pick up a sack apiece then the Browns are in good shape. (Unrelated - it's a shame that Ogbo didn't elect to wear No. 7, because "OO7" would have been just a fantastic shorthand for him).Chris: I'm looking for splash plays from all sides in this game. Both teams, offense and defense. I expect the Browns to come out aggressive to show they are serious this year, and I expect Joe Burrow to play a little safe around pressure in the pocket (when he's not hitting a deep ball) leading to 5 sacks. Myles will get 2, Smith will get 1, Ogba will get 1, and a linebacker of your choice will clean up the last one.Andrew: It seems like Cincy's strategy has never been to load up against Myles. They have seemed content to just let him do his thing all game, and I'm not sure I fully understand why. Now that Myles has more help beside him, will Cincy change their strategy? If so, I think some of the new guys could have big games. If they don't change their strategy, though, look out. Myles will have an absolutely monster game.Gerbs: "Make sure Myles doesn't beat you" has been the mantra for years and it likely will continue to be, but this year the other side could absolutely beat you this time around. Smith and Okoronkwo are the best rushers he's played with and when you add in Tomlinson and Shelby Harris, it's one of the most talented lines in the league.

Denzel Ward is still in the concussion protocol as of Thursday morning. Do you think he plays and if he doesn't, how does Jim Schwartz's defense make up for that against the tough matchup of Cinci's receivers? 

Bode: Ward's at his best going up against physical wide receivers man-on-man. Not having him against Ja'Marr Chase is a huge detriment to the defense if he sits out and likely means the team will need to shift more bracket coverage that way, which opens up the other side of the field.Corey: It's a long season, and I think caution wins out before Sunday - I expect Ward to sit. (*Whispers - like he should have sat in the last preseason game*). Anyway, Chase is terrific and while Greg Newsome II might be able to step up against him I'm not certain if the Browns secondary has enough depth to make up that loss across the board. No Ward = 50 more passing yards for Burrow.Chris: Ward is on track to potentially be available, and I think he plays, but I'm quite worried that he's one more weird play away from missing a large chunk of the season with another concussion. A bit worried for the guy more than the player. Without Ward, the Browns play more zone and less aggressive rushes, most likely. I don't like the defense's chances like that.Andrew: I don't know if he will play or not, that will just come down to what the team's medical staff thinks. But obviously, it's a huge adjustment without him. Against most teams, the Browns can survive just slotting some guys up a notch, but with the depth Cincy has at wide receiver, it's going to create some issues. That's where you really just hope the D-line can get enough pressure to take some of the stress off the DBs.Gerbs: I want him to sit for his sake, but I think he will play at this point. He was at least limited in both practices leading up to Friday if not a full participant on Thursday. If he plays, they are able to play defense the way they want: man-to-man on the outside, funnel help with safeties over the top, and let the line wreak havoc. Let slip the dogs of war on money man Burrow.

Week 1, Cleveland is getting 2.5 points at home. Are you taking the points? Can Cleveland win outright? 

Bode: Cleveland can win as the Browns have gotten the best of the Bengals in five of the last six meetings despite starting the likes of Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, and Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Cincinnati though is the more experienced team with fewer questions entering 2023 and is considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender by many. Not to mention the well-documented issues the Browns have had the first week of any season. But, hey, it's Week 1... have to believe the Browns will win.Corey: In my waking lifetime since 1999, the Browns are 2-21-1 in Week 1. They haven't won at home in Week 1 since 2004... when rookie o-lineman Dawand Jones was three years old. If you're willing to bet on the Browns in this moment then you're a braver person than me. Of course, I'm writing this wearing my brown and orange "Cleveland is the City" t-shirt so who really knows? For what it's worth, there's not yet been a tie in the Battle of Ohio.Chris: I'm taking the points for sure, and the Browns outright win a shootout that features big sacks and INTs as well. Browns, 38-35.Andrew: I don't bet on the Browns, but if I had to, I would not take the points. I would bet on the Browns to win outright. But that's only because I like the value more without the points. I'm probably not quite as high on the Browns yet as a lot of fans are. I think I'm jaded in my old(er) age. The Browns have to prove it to me before I can fully believe. I think the Browns will probably lose this game because I do think Cincy is the more established team. I suspect it could take a few weeks before the Browns really gel as a team. And as boring as it is to talk about, we know how the Browns typically fare in season openers.Gerbs: Take the points and put them elsewhere in a teaser if you want because I think Cleveland wins this outright. Thank Ja'Maar Chase for the bulletin board material from yesterday. Cleveland is Cleveland, the Browns is the Browns, and they are gonna come out firing.