Browns get their first win of the season over the Texans: Behind the Numbers
September 20, 2021Questions and Answers Week 2: Role Reversal
September 21, 2021Craig Lyndall
$17 mil [2022 reported Cleveland guaranteed payroll by SpoTrac]
https://twitter.com/spotrac/status/1440008637536215047?s=21
mitch
Makes sense. They have zero dollars guaranteed for 2022
Although it may as well be 11 million because they’re obviously not letting Jose Ramriez walk
Michael Bode
This is what drives me nuts about Spotrac, they cannot even agree with themselves.
I agree with @mitch above, per Spotrac, Cleveland has $0 guaranteed in 2022.
The above figure also doesn’t make any sense given that Robo has a team-option for $7m and J-Ram for $12m, so that adds up to $19m?
[Editor’s note: Jose Ramirez has a $2 million buy-out for 2022, so the true guaranteed dollar figure for Cleveland is $2 million.]
mitch
I have J-Ram at 11 but that could be wrong
Yeah, point is, they have zero, not 17
I do think they’ll spend a bit this offseason though
Michael Bode
It’s where MLB doesn’t do itself many favors w/ structure. No rational person thinks the team will simply cut Bieber & Franmil & others… so, you have to estimate arb costs.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/cleveland-indians-salaries-and-contracts.shtml
B-Ref tends to under-estimate, but they have Cleveland payroll at $57m in 2022 & $138m in 2023 based on current arbitration costs… assuming no additions (and even if they don’t truly spend, there will be some as there was even this last offseason though not a ton).
2023 is obviously the big bump up… so, additions this offseason (OF, specifically) could well be 1 year deals.
mitch
I don’t really see why they expect it to shoot up so much in 2023
those Arb1 salaries are not going to be high
Like, Luis Castillo was an arb1 guy and got 4.2 million
Bieber won’t be much higher than 5 million
and that’s by far the highest one
Michael Bode
They use Cot’s … Bieber & Franmil & Quantrill being on Arb-2 are likely big drivers… I think Bieber at $5m is next year in Arb-1?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B7MU3jDhh0UBDRguq45j5QAKyC0EsCcWlcEiD8lAKes/edit#gid=1520401900
mitch
I guess this is all academic because who knows what it’ll look like post-CBA
Ohhh for some reason on the b-ref page they don’t have Bieber as an arb guy next year
but now it makes more sense
Hear me out: they should extend Bieber and Jose.
what, no one’s fighting?
We all agree?
The Indians should extend their best players?
Why is this so obvious?
Michael Bode
Cleveland could extend J-Ram because they got such a team-friendly contract last time that his age degradation curve could allow for it.
I’m not thinking Bieber will accept less than full contract value & the org isn’t going to pay a risk liability asset $300m and Beiber rightfully won’t accept a shorter term contract.
All pending new CBA, of course.
mitch
They’d have to extend Bieber now so they’re only buying a few years of free agency
Obviously, they’re not going to do a full-on free agency style contract for him
but I bet they could sign him for like, 6 years 130 million right now or something
unless he’s dead set on being a free agent
Michael Bode
Yeah, if he’d be up for it (Craig did a good job showing how Lindor cost himself money not considering it earlier in his contract).
The issue is Bieber is the magic age 29 at the end of arbitration, so he might want to get his 10-year banger before he turns 30.
mitch
It just depends. He could also see the fragility of life as a pitcher from this season and want to cash in ASAP
Michael Bode
The organization should definitely extend such an offer.
mitch
No doubt
It would be a true win-win
With Jose, I think he continues to take team friendly deals, as long as they’re not as friendly as last one
but I sure could see him signing a 5 yr 100 million contract or something
Michael Bode
Just have no insight into how his mind actually works on that stuff. Unsure if he’s happy to just produce in the background or if he wants to be more well-known. I’d think that would be as big a driver as money for his current possible HoF path.
mitch
He definitely strikes me as the Anthony Rendon type of player who just wants to do his job in the background
which, yes, please continue to have “downyear” 6-win seasons however you’d like
Michael Bode
Like Carrasco, we knew he just wanted enough to setup his family (here and back home) and his foundation.
Lindor, we knew wanted the stage and the money (not complaining, he can want what he wants).
J-Ram? I just don’t know … (why did you use Rendon who left the Nats for the big money in LA? 🙂 )
mitch
Hahaha i thought that too. I think the difference is Rendon had just won the world series
and was an impending free agent
why wouldn’t he do what he did
I’m really hoping Jose Ramirez goes absolutely bananas these last couple of weeks and gets to 7 wins in a “down-year”
Michael Bode
I’d have played in the company of Juan Soto for as long as I could have, myself.
mitch
Yo me too
Maybe that’s how they convinced Strasburg to stay
“You’ll never have to face Juan Soto”
FYI, JRam is at 6 fWAR and 6.2 bWAR
Michael Bode
Plenty of time to get to 7 and another Top 3 AL MVP finish.
mitch
I worry people pretty much have their minds made already
Ohtani, Guerrero, Semien
Michael Bode
I am somewhat rooting for Toronto to miss the postseason & JRam + those 3 get the top AL MVP votes because then none of the MVP candidates will be playing in October. Put Mullins at No. 5.
mitch
If I had to rank my AL MVP candidates, I’d probably go: Ohtani, Guerrero, JRam, Correa, Semien, Mullins
then probably Bogaerts, Judge
Michael Bode
Myles Straw loves Kyle Tucker, so I’d put him above Judge (and because they are pretty well even too). I’d have Semien higher, but those first two are so separate from everyone else this year it doesn’t really matter much.
mitch
I just think Semien greatly benefitted from playing in two tiny fake ballparks
It’s not really his fault. He’s just not a 40 homer guy
Tom Hamilton’s MVP rankings: Ohtani, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Nicky Lopez
He’s batting .301 Bode! How could he not be an MVP candidate???
Michael Bode
Flipping this a bit… that’s a fun game. “Traditional stat MVP candidates that are not really MVP candidates”
Michael Brantley leads the voting.
mitch
He only has 33 RBIs!
sure he’s batting .315, but he doesn’t get RUNS
or RBIS
Bo Bichette has almost 100 runs and RBIs
Michael Bode
Fine, give his teammate, Yuri Gurriel his votes
What about Mr. Tim Anderson?
mitch
Clear MVP candidate
But clearly Jose Abreu should win again. I mean, 113 RBIs? That’s exactly what you need
Imagine if he wasn’t on the team. None of those guys would have scored!!!
Michael Bode
Whit Merrifield does have 92 runs, 70 RBIs, and 40 stolen bases.
mitch
Oh yeah, well
Bo Bichette is third in hits, second in runs, and 11th in RBIs
and first in GRIT
Michael Bode
But none of the media narrative building the last few weeks like Salvador Perez, so he probably would be the one to win it.
mitch
True, true
If you have a few minutes
I’d like to see you try to name a few players in the top ten in doubles
MLB-wide
It’s a pretty good list with some random names on top
Michael Bode
OK, one note beforehand… I do find it funny that all the guys above are really good and provided really positive things. Just not MVP-level things this season. I think that gets lost in these debates a bit some times.
mitch
Oh yeah, Bichette has been good this year!
4.2 wins
like, really great year for him
Michael Bode
Alright… MLB-wide Top 10 double kings… that’s gonna be tough because there are a ton of really great hitters this year and the depressed baseball has caused some adjustments, OK, let’s try…
mitch
For the most part
they’re all good hitters
the league lead is 41 btw
Michael Bode
of guys we’ve mentioned, Semien & Boegarts have to be on the list, I’d think.
mitch
Bogie just misses
Semien is fifth
Michael Bode
Oh, dang. See, this is tough.
I also think I know the leader because it got mentioned 1000x the last time we played the Tigers… Candelario is No. 1, right?
mitch
Candelario is indeed T-1
at 41
i figured you’d get that one but i think the average non AL Central person would be like ‘WTF’
the other leader is who i find to be particularly random
Michael Bode
Yeah, I only know because it just got repeated and repeated… enough already, I get it Comerica is a doubles park.
mitch
also, Candelario is good
120 wRC+
Michael Bode
JD gets a bunch… so does Mullins from above’s list.
mitch
JD, 4; CedMul, 9
Michael Bode
Oh, and Merrifield steals a bunch of doubles (I’m not sure his success rate but he just goes full bore for them all the time).
Can you tell which league I watch more?
mitch
Whit is 6th
it is fairly clear lol
Michael Bode
Sad thing is I watched the NL a lot last year, I just cannot with the pitcher hitting. Sinks me.
mitch
in fairness, there are only three NL players on the list
Michael Bode
Oh, so I have a chance!
mitch
you’re missing two very good players from AL playoff teams
one of whom has come up in the previous conversation
Michael Bode
“If no one got me” ???
mitch
?
Michael Bode
Oh, must be a Texas thing… that’s Kyle Tucker’s saying.
mitch
ohhhh
yes
he’s 10
Michael Bode
How many do I have?
mitch
you have one ALer and three NLers left
Michael Bode
OK, well, I only have one more Boston player to guess, so I’ll go Devers.
mitch
bam
there ya go
Michael Bode
What???? I didn’t actually think it was him, I was blanking 🙂
mitch
hahaha
yes
Raffy Devers is stupid good and it’s surprising how infrequently he gets discussed
more than JRam of course
but he plays in boston
Michael Bode
All the guys in the NL I watch have been injured too much for counting stats… Tatis & Winker & Acuna, etc.
mitch
Yeah so one of the NLers is probably the most famously doubles hitter in MLB
Michael Bode
Votto?
mitch
@Andrew Schnitkey would definitely get him correct
Michael Bode
Hey, Astudillo is in the AL
mitch
many of his long fly balls to left field stay in the ballpark
Michael Bode
Haha, OK you made that too easy with Castellanos.
What about Mr. Mustache in PIT (Reynolds). What about my favorite former Rockie, Arenado?
mitch
Reynolds not in the top 20. Arenado is 25
the other NLer you should actually gets is my personal MVP
i think tatis will probably win, but i think this player should get it
Michael Bode
Harper then…
mitch
yep!
bryce harper
so good
Michael Bode
Well, you gave me the first 2 NLers.
I don’t think I get full credit on them.
mitch
Yeah i’m running low on time
so i have to help you
the other guy with 41
has a 95 wRC+
Michael Bode
Has Albies fallen that low?
mitch
he has 103 singles, 41 doubles, and 10 homers lol
albies is 13th
Michael Bode
Trick question with Adam Frazier?
mitch
good guess, nope
this player would fit right in on the Indians
middling hitter
plays everywhere decently
gerbs
Austin Riley?
Michael Bode
Josh Rojas? Like, Rojas would definitely be a Cleveland MIFer.
mitch
Austin Riley has been awesome this year. Austin Riley has a 132 wRC+
but no
Rojas is 28th
gerbs
India? NL ROY
mitch
India has 29 doubles
Michael Bode
Carlson? Crawford? Edman?
mitch
nope
nope
YUP
Tommy effing Edman
Tommy Edman is leading the league in doubles
for some reason
Michael Bode
Hahahahahahaha.
Thankfully too, I was running out of NL names who could have doubles but not more than 10 HRs.
mitch
yeah, i feel like you got there pretty quickly
- Tommy Edman
- Jeimer Candelario
- Bryce Harper
- J.D. Martinez
- Marcus Semien
- Whit Merrifield
- Nick Castellanos
- Rafael Devers
- Cedric Mullins
- Kyle “If no one got me” Tucker
Michael Bode
You gave me 2/3 NL guys, which definitely helped.
Then, the hint at low true power but getting doubles limited the field. Just a matter of going team-by-team, mostly 2B at that point 🙂
mitch
yep yep
of everyone with 50+ xbh, edman has the fourth lowest average exit velocity on them
4. Edman, 97.5 MPH
3. Altuve, 97.5 MPH
2. CedMul, 97.4 MPH
1. Whit Merrifield, 94.8 MPH (LOL)