Target share will be an interesting study for Browns

Editor’s note: As expected, KhaDarel Hodge was released today on roster cutdown day. So just scan over his section in this. 

As mentioned before in previous articles, I’m a Bill Simmons loyalist, even still in his podcast-only, less-relatable-by-the-day 50s. He has gotten more hackneyed as the years go by, steering into the Boston homer-ism more, getting angrier about player empowerment and “cancel culture” and things that aren’t going away anytime soon, but dammit if he doesn’t have good theories still. One that I’ve seen bear out to be true is that championship-winning teams fall apart in Year 2 or 3 because the parts that comprise them end up needing or wanting more: more money because people in their ear tell them they were more important than they thought, more touches to prove to the world that they are better than the world thinks, more control over the gameplan when they were a roleplayer at best. We saw this play out in Cleveland with Kyrie; he wasn’t happy being the Robin to LeBron James’ Batman, despite the fact that is why they were able to win a title, so he forced his way out.

So why am I bringing up the “Theory of More” here? Because the Browns game-to-game touches will be an interesting case study to watch this season and there are only so many able to get around. There is a finite number of plays a team runs on offense and defense, and while that number can vary in a lot of different things, such as offense pace, a good defense getting off the field on third down, a bad defense giving up scores with the quickness and offenses having to catch back up, the high-end offenses aren’t getting *that* much more than middle of the road. NFL teams average about 64-65 offensive plays a game, with Cleveland’s 2020 on the low side at 63.7. Accounting for improvements from Baker Mayfield, the defensive backfield, and random variance, we can say they will be more middle-of-the-road than below. Head Coach Kevin Stefanski’s offense will always have fewer than normal due to the reliance on the running game dragging through the clock, but with the bevy of receivers and Odell Beckham Jr. expected to play a full season…we can give them the extra two plays.

Doing the math is hard but here we go: 65 offensive plays per game, with 17 games a year, that equals out to be 1,105 offensive plays over the course of a regular season. Again, all of this is ballparking and estimations, but that allows for us to get a baseline of targets and touches as we look at what could be on the horizon for the Browns offensive players. Disclaimer here: I will try to get as close to the 1,105 as possible, but more than likely I will have more than 1,105 targets/touches, as I am a homer and calculating the high end of averages for everyone. So don’t come at me in the comments.¹ Also, as you are looking at 2020’s target numbers and think this year’s projections are a little high, don’t forget this is the first 17-game regular season, so we have another 65 targets to throw around there.

The bell cows: Nick Chubb (250 targets combined per Gerbs Projections, 208 in 2020), Kareem Hunt (275 targets per GP, 249 in 2020)²

If I told you that Nick Chubb was the touch leader for 2020, would you believe me? He wasn’t, that was Kareem Hunt. And I project that will be the case again, though by a much slimmer margin than 2020. Chubb missed four games last season due to injury, and Hunt still only had 41 more targets than the starter.³ Being that Hunt is the proven third-down/passing game back, that’s the cause for his slight lead going forward. Stefanski and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will mix up the two as the season goes on, keeping defenses off balance. We saw that last year, where some drives were Chubb’s, some were Hunt’s, and once the season got deeper, there was variation within drives.

I hope to see more of Hunt and Chubb on the field together in 2021. Obviously, that would impact their target share, but it would keep defenses off balance. Are they going to smash us in the mouth with Chubb? Swing it out to Hunt? Maybe Chubb sees an uptick in receptions since he isn’t actually bad at it,⁴ which would be a nice wrinkle. Regardless of how it happens for the CHUNT backfield, these two are going to soak up the targets. We⁵ have them at almost 47% of the targets from the offense.

The LSU boys: Odell Beckham Jr. (120 targets pr GP, 43 in 2020), Jarvis Landry (125 targets per GP, 101 in 2020)

When you have electric players, you try to get them the ball as much as possible. In the passing game, there are few people in the league as electric as OBJ. Last season, he was averaging seven targets a game, so this keeps him on that same pace. You can argue he should see a downtick, as Mayfield was aesthetically a better quarterback when OBJ was not on the field. The gravity well that can be Beckham Jr. not only brought defenses into his vortex but also Baker’s eyes at times, as evidenced in the opening game when he went 3-for-10 on targets for 22 yards. But with a year under Mayfield’s belt, one that proved for him that he is better when he’s spreading the ball around more, I don’t think we are going to see any more 10 target games for OBJ. I projected he stay on that seven target pace, and with health on his side, I believe we will see a year worthy of Comeback Player of the Year status.

Landry is the security blanket for Mayfield in ways that we can’t even imagine. The receiver has averaged 8.6 targets per game in his career and since coming to Cleveland, that number is 8.25. He is the perfect across-the-middle receiver for the passing offense that the Browns run. Though not big in build, Landry has been able to use his body control and moderate speed to get open and NFL quarterbacks have gone to him every year. 125 is a little low, a little off his 8.25 per game, but as mentioned in the above paragraph, Mayfield and the coaching staff have established a culture where everyone gets fed, so getting the ball around to others seems to be the move. Landry will get his, as he should.

It needs to be brought up here, that these four players alone, with their expected target share, are 69.6% of the 1,105.⁶ That is a lot of an offense centered around four players, and why the next groups will see such a steep drop-off in numbers. But, don’t take that as me complaining; you should absolutely be trying to get the ball in the hands of your best players as much as possible, and there are few players better in the league at their positions than these four.

The big bois: Austin Hooper (75 targets per GP, 70 in 2020), Harrison Bryant (45 targets per GP, 38 in 2020), David Njoku (40 targets per GP, 29 in 2020)

Hooper was one of the big-money signings prior to the 2020 season, and while he wasn’t…*bad*, he wasn’t what we expected coming off a great year in Atlanta in 2019. Hooper had 46 catches for 436 yards and four touchdowns which is, again, not bad, but not what we thought we were going to get from him in his first season in orange and brown. Any kind of return to form from him would help not only the offense in general but Mayfield’s confidence. The ability to open the seam of the field with the big bruiser would go a long way to clear out space for Landry and work the play action for Chubb and Hunt. I predicted 75, which is a lower pace than last year, but with Harrison Bryant’s emergence as a rookie and Njoku out of whatever funk he was in last year, the tight end spot will be bumping in Stefanski’s offense.

Bryant played the third-most snaps of any non-OL/QB player in 2020, which should surprise you.⁷ Stefanski’s offense highlights tight ends, and only the Tennessee Titans were in 12 or 13 personnel more than Cleveland last year,⁸ so you know that he will be getting a ton of snaps going forward. Do those snaps translate to extra receptions? It sure does feel like it should, as Bryant was getting plenty of looks in the last three games of the season.⁹ 2.6 targets per game are about right for Bryant though, as he doesn’t have breakaway speed nor the size in the red zone to overpower safeties. Don’t let those detractors make you think I’m low on him, he just is more complete than good at any one thing.

Now here’s a guy who can and should be getting more looks in the red zone.¹⁰ Njoku is a monster inside the 20-yard line, and he possesses all the god-given athleticism possibly needed to be a problem for defenses in the red zone. The issue with getting him touches in 2020 was partly his holdout before the season and mostly because of injuries. Njoku appeared in 13 games and only started five, but with his holdout over and the expressed desire to work out an extension with Cleveland, looks can and should be coming his way. If he is able to see 40 targets and 25+ catches, he would be well on his way to securing that bag. Words cannot express how multi-faceted this offense can be, but just looking at these three tight ends, you have an elite red zone warrior Njoku, a great blocker in Bryant, and Hooper who is capable of carrying an offense.

The young bucks: Rashard Higgins (60 targets per GP, 52 in 2020), Donovan Peoples-Jones (45 targets per GP, 20 in 2020)

As much as I love everything about the Browns offense, these are the two players I’m probably the most hyped about this season. They both have the opportunity to look up in the depth chart and see what they can become. Higgins has a chance to solidify a long-term spot on this team, because not only is the chemistry with Mayfield evident, he could easily be a Landry clone in the future. NFL lives and tenures are short-lived and measured in dog years, and both Landry and OBJ are running short on theirs with Cleveland due to cap gymnastics. While I don’t think Landry is really in danger of losing his job this year or even next, but if Higgins puts together another good-to-great season we could see the handing of the torch. Higgins 2020 looked like this: 37-of-52 for 599 yards and second on the team with four touchdown catches, second on the team in catch rate to…Landry. 3.5 targets per game for Higgins is approximately the same pace because the big dogs have to eat first.

Peoples-Jones was my biggest riser from 2020 in terms of pace, and it’s because he showed out so much as a rookie last year and so far in training camp. As athletic as they come, DPJ can be the OBJ replacement in a few years at a tiny fraction of the cost. Almost nobody in the NFL (!!!) had a better yards-per-target or yards-per-reception than Peoples-Jones last year and he helped give the offense the downfield explosiveness that it was missing once OBJ hit the shelf. I mean, look at what he was able to do against Tennessee here: the route was crisp, the speed to get vertical was there, and he just blew past an NFL cornerback as a rookie. Obviously, it was set up by the playcalling, but it’s on the players to be able to execute and DPJ could and should be a star in the making for the league.

https://twitter.com/Browns/status/1335659054262349824?s=20

With 45 projected targets in 2021, Peoples-Jones has late-round fantasy flyer all over him and could get a bigger share early on if Beckham Jr isn’t ready for prime time. He should have a huge year for Cleveland.

The wildcards: KhaDarel Hodge (20 targets per GP, 17 in 2020), Anthony Schwartz (20 targets per GP, rookie), Demetric Felton (30 targets per GP, rookie)

As of writing, KhaDarel Hodge is still on the roster, that might change between now and publication. But we are here at the end of the roster, and these three guys are all high-upside/longer-term players that are in need of a smattering of plays.¹¹ Hodge is obviously the most seasoned of this trio, though his three years in the league garnished a grand total of 30 targets, so it’s not like he’s some elder statesman. What he does have is a rapport with Mayfield, as made obvious by the touchdown scoring drive from Sunday’s preseason victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Again, it’s possible that Hodge will be out of a job or on a different team within the next 24-48 hours, and if he stays, his ceiling is limited by the talent above him on the depth chart. He doesn’t do any one thing better than anybody, like Felton and Schwartz, to make himself stand out, but he is a decent receiver and could receive a high end of 20 targets in case of injury.

https://twitter.com/Browns/status/1432140477600616449?s=20

Anthony Schwartz, the speedster third-round pick from Auburn, has a returner spot locked up with the release of JoJo Natson on Monday. Whether it is punts or kickoffs remains to be seen, however, as he will be fighting Felton for those duties, but Schwartz has the game-breaking speed not seen in brown and orange in quite some time. He will be featured on returns, but do not expect Schwartz to have much going for him early on in the season on offense: a hamstring injury kept him out of a lot camp early on and he is working his way back now. That downtime hopefully allowed him to watch some tape with the coaches and work on understanding the routes, an issue of his in college, and something that will hold him back from getting more of a share of targets. A cap of 20 is probably too low, as I expect him to get some deep balls later in the season once Stefanski and Van Pelt feel comfortable letting him loose and his grasp of the playbook is deeper but works for our exercise here.

Felton is the last guy of what I call “the wildcards” but has the highest total in this section, and that’s due to his unique position on the roster, meaning he doesn’t have just one but two. The rookie running back has spent almost equal time in the wide receiver room as he has in the running backs one. When he was on the field for Cleveland in the preseason, it was electric. Lined up outside, in the backfield, wherever he was needed, Felton is the gadget of gadgets, and will help keep defenses honest. A trio of Chubb, Hunt, and Felton on the field is a defensive coordinator’s nightmare, as all three can catch and run as well as anyone. 30 targets for the rookie is probably low, but again, the early going of the season will be getting Chubb and Hunt going. Felton will definitely get his work in, but we might only see a target or two per game to start out.

Honorable mentions or “Break Glass in Case of Emergency” guys: D’Ernest Johnson (30 targets per GP, 37 in 2020)

Did you know that D’Earnest Johnson played in every game of 2020? I didn’t until I looked it up. Johnson is another possible bubble player, waiting for official word that he is on the roster or not, so if you see a Mary Kay Cabot tweet saying he was dealt or cut, just move along. Johnson is a decent back who got more than he should have gotten in 2020 due to Chubb’s injury. 37 targets in 2020 is not a lot but too many when this offense is as stacked as it is and he will only be used sparingly to keep Chubb/Hunt fresh. He has enough ability to be some team’s RB2, so that has to be factored in when considering his spot on the roster. If someone is desperate enough, and with the presence of Felton on the roster, Johnson could be on the move if the value is there.

So that’s it. That’s the entire offense. Not including Johnson’s 30 target projections, I made it to exactly 1,105. This whole article will probably be in vain in four months, but I liked the thought exercise of trying to see how much and how little guys will be targeted and how well they will do with their touches. Could we see someone like DPJ or Felton overshoot my projections? Absolutely. I hope so! It means young players are stepping up and producing. But this whole thing highlights how absolutely drenched in talent this offense is, and why this season truly depends on Baker Mayfield making that next jump to superstardom. Let’s see how it goes!

1. Or do, if it matters strongly to you. [↩]
2. I shortened Gerbs Projections to GP. I love abbreviations so much, I used them on my already shortened name. [↩]
3. Eight more carries and 33 more targets in the passing game. [↩]
4. Chubb has a career 75% catch rate on 96 targets, which is pretty decent. [↩]
5. Me, I, Gerbs alone. [↩]
6. Nice [↩]
7. It did us in the WFNY Discord when I posed the same trivia question to them during this writing. [↩]
8. That’s one running back and at least two tight ends, sometimes three, for those not fluent with personnel language. [↩]
9. 15 targets for eight catches and 74 yards in three games. [↩]
10. I hope you read this in your best John Madden voice. [↩]
11. Hodge is younger than Higgins…so I’m not wrong there. [↩]