Resolve will be challenged: This Week in Tribe Baseball

Life as a competitive but not likely contending baseball team is, well, about what the past week showed. Dominant 10-1 and 7-0 wins coupled with poor showings in 8-2 and 6-2 losses. The record finishing above or below .500 for the week wound up being decided by 37 year old catcher Rene Rivera in an 0-2 count, down by 2 runs, with 2 outs, in the bottom of the 9th inning. But, hey, thank you Mr. Rivera.

So, what are your current thoughts on the Indians, the upcoming enforcement on pitcher’s using sticky stuff, and everything going on with the team this week?

Note: discussion happened before Jean Carlos Mejia spun the ball for four innings against the Baltimore Orioles, while limiting them to two runs in that time.

Combined 2021 starting pitcher ERA (rounded):

3.0 CWS
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4 TBR
3.5 HOU
3.6
3.7
3.8 OAK
3.9 NYY, DET
4.0
4.1
4.2 TOR
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6 BOS, TEX
4.7 CLE, SEA
4.8
4.9 LAA
5.0 MIN
5.1 KCR
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5 BAL

— Codify, Inc. (@CodifyBaseball) June 14, 2021

Dave Sterling 
I’m interested in locating the body swap machine that had Shane Bieber looking like Logan Gilbert and Logan Gilbert looking like Shane Bieber.

Michael Bode
Given expectations before the season, it is wild that the rotation has a 4.7 ERA and the team is six games above .500. The bullpen has been great with a 3.26 ERA (third-best in AL) and the fluctuating offense has been able to score when absolutely needed.

gerbs
The crazy part is, we under estimated how good the offense can be while also under estimating how awful they can look on any given day. It’s ridiculous how hot and cold the lineup can be

Michael Bode 
Well, we are all hoping that Bieber’s performance was not in direct correlation to this memo on enforcing pitchers to not use sticky substances when pitching… Shane’s drop in rpm/mph is not ideal.

The Indians continue to employ the youngest roster in MLB… so, I agree wholeheartedly Gerbs, but we sort of should have seen it coming (maybe not to the degree that it has happened).

gerbs
Without looking it up, who is the steals leader for the team thus far?

Michael Bode
Bradley Zimmer is making a quick push up the SB leaderboard, but I don’t think he has overtaken it yet. Amed (of the Rosarios) and Jose Ramirez should be in the lead… Eddie (of the Rosarios) has a few too… maybe just behind those two?

gerbs
The answer is Eddie, with 7, and JRam/Amed tied for second with 6

Michael Bode
Ugh, so close and yet so far…

Looking now, Zimmer has 4. If he gets the starts, then he could well have the team lead by the All-Star break.

gerbs 
Bieber has had a season of ups and downs and it’s puzzling that he’s still working on things this far into the season. He’s scrapped pitches, re-worked others, and the results are not what they should be.

I’m interested to see what the finished product of his rework will be, but he clearly isn’t full bore Bieber and it’s hurting the team right now because he is the stopper.

I said early on, or at least I think I did, that Aaron Civale would be the team leader in WHIP, but that was because I thought highly of Civale, not this badly of Bieber

Michael Bode 
Bradley Zimmer is making a quick push up the SB leaderboard, but I don’t think he has overtaken it yet. Amed (of the Rosarios) and Jose Ramirez should be in the lead… Eddie (of the Rosarios) has a few too… maybe just behind those two?

Civale going “Full Plesac” in his pitch usage is great to see. That is, being willing and able to use any of his pitches in any count.

mitch 
This month is critical for the direction of the remainder of the season. Taking two of three from Seattle is a solid start, but Cleveland faces Baltimore for four, Pittsburgh for three, Chicago (NL) for two, Minnesota for four, and Detroit for three to end the month. The Indians must take advantage of this portion of the schedule, since July gets much more difficult. Now would be a great time to get some good news about, say, Franmil Reyes.

Dave Sterling
Pittsburgh should be easy. just hit routine ground balls and keep running until you get home.

gerbs 
Looking forward to Cal Quantrill’s start Tuesday. Interested to see how long he goes and if Sam Hentges goes after him if need be. I don’t think Quantrill is stretched past 4IP?

mitch
I don’t know if we’ve seen an outing from Quantrill where you’d want him to go more than four.

gerbs 
Baltimore could/should be one but yes you are right

mitch 
Is it just me or is command down teamwide? It seems like no one on the staff, even Bieber sometimes, has any idea where the ball is going. I’ll preemptively point out this was true before the tack crackdown.

gerbs
It has felt a lot this year that dudes are just throwing and not pitching

mitch 
They’re tied at the top of the leaderboard in percentage of pitches in the “waste zone,” the area furthest from the zone in this diagram:

Michael Bode
Of course, not all waste pitches are created equal. It’s possible to still get chase down there if you’ve set up the batter… how about waste pitches with fewer than 2 strikes? (asking a possibly unreasonable question)

mitch 
No, that’s a fair question. They’re allowing a .439 wOBA on PAs ending in those pitches, which indicates it’s not exactly good. Batters are swinging at 6.6% of these pitches, fifth in the league, but also, 6.6% isn’t a lot.

Michael Bode
Fair.

mitch 
54.6% of the pitches are with less than two strikes, below the leaguewide average, so your instinct is correct.
They’re preferring to miss way off the plate rather than on it. Still, the sheer number of waste pitches is probably contributing to this idea that command is down.

With two strikes, they’re well above the league average, along with “stuff-oriented” teams like Tampa and Cincy

Michael Bode
So, the teams (those 3… though probably add in LA Dodgers) that have been as focused on pitching analytics as any have all seen something to indicate it’s worth missing in the waste zone with two strikes. Since 6.6% is such a small number, it does make me wonder if there’s more to it. Enough for us now though to have recognized it is happening (and thanks for digging it up).

mitch 
Yeah, I’m not sure if it’s that or a necessary byproduct of some other thing that these teams care about.

Michael Bode 
Of course, everything might change after today if MLB does actually start enforcing their “foreign substance” rule.

mitch 
True. Analyzing 2021 pitching seems to be foolhardy at the moment. I saw a Travis Sawchik tweet that said compared to the ten games before MLB’s threatening memo, the ten days after saw a batting average ten points higher leaguewide. Pretty robust results.

Michael Bode
10 wRC+ jump, if I recall correctly.

But, of course, even that is pitchers in an adjustment period. If you have sticky stuff, then don’t… well, you have to re-learn your arsenal. Things might settle much closer once pitchers get used to it.

gerbs 
From 11 days before June 3 to 11 days after, it’s been a 10 point wRC+ jump, yes

mitch 
But also, you probably don’t have every pitcher immediately complying right away.

Michael Bode
Plus those trying to figure out a different combination that works and won’t get flagged (while perhaps failing to get the combo correct at first).

It’s an interesting time, for sure.

mitch 
No doubt.

Michael Bode 
Back to the specific Indians stuff…

Starting pitcher spots 4 & 5… at the end of the next month without many days off, does the Tribe have one or both of these spots solidified? Who secures one if so?

gerbs
The next two days we will see the three contenders (JC Mejia, Quantrill and Hentges)
I can’t rationalize McKenzie anymore after Saturday’s awfulness

mitch 
I think Mejia is going to be one of them. He had one bad outing that, frankly, wasn’t thaaaaaat bad.

gerbs 
I’m okay with Mejia.

mitch
I’m really frustrated they haven’t gone with McKenzie as a bulk guy after an opener at all. I think that’s a situation that takes some of the pressure off of him, and allows the team to really mess with release points. But, as Gerbs pointed out, you just can’t commit to the guy right now. That ship has sailed. It’s uncanny. Every time they’ve guaranteed to send him down after his start, he’s shone. When he has a bona fide opportunity to be member of the rotation, though, he absolutely blows. I don’t quite understand.

Michael Bode
Long-term, I think McKenzie will be fine. The error bars are too great with him at present, obviously. Hopefully, a month working through things in Columbus is all he needs.

mitch 
I agree with that, Bode.

Michael Bode
Mejia is my hope too. I have liked what I have seen, but he is still under 10 MLB innings pitched.
I’m sort of guessing the fifth spot ends up being a bullpen game spot or pseudo-bullpen game spot unless Quantrill can make a mini-leap. I want to see it with Hentges, but I think he needs more time developing.

mitch 
We’re on the same page.

gerbs 
I’d love to have Hentges step up and do it.
His profile is great and he’s got the build to be a horse.

mitch 
We have so many historical instances of guys with comparable bodies taking a long time to develop. They didn’t all have this development team, so maybe it doesn’t take quite as long, but I’m completely willing to deal with the hiccups to see what they have when/if he puts it together.

Michael Bode 
The last full season for Hentges he struggled in AA; now we’re asking him to put it all together in MLB for a team that is trying to win games. I’ve been encouraged by some of what I have seen from him, but I don’t want to be asking too much either. Letting him figure things out 2-3 innings at a time or sending him down to Columbus are the two paths I see.

mitch 
I know the ERA was unseemly, but the underlying numbers were pretty good in AA. He’s got the stuff. He just needs the cosmic tumblers to fall into place, to shamelessly steal a phrase from Grant Brisbee.

I also think his fastball is probably his worst pitch, other than his rarely-used change-up. The fact that the Indians love to tell their young starters to begin their careers by leaning on the fastball probably doesn’t help him.

Michael Bode 
It was more a 1.648 WHIP than the 5.11 ERA at AA that I was referring to… that and his 1.97 strikeout:walk ratio; that isn’t terrible but not what he’s capable of as he has a better ratio in MLB this year (slightly but that’s still with the two-level jump).

The main point here is that Hentges is still developing and development is messy. Take Carlos Carrasco who had a 1.527 WHIP his first four (incomplete) seasons with the Indians and a 5.29 ERA / 4.48 FIP before settling into a rotation rock.

mitch 
You’re probably right that FIP overrates him a bit, since he doesn’t actually seem to have any ability to suppress homers.
I do think he’s had bad babips his whole career, and I’m not sure we should expect that to continue as his solidifies his mechanics.

Michael Bode
Yeah, and don’t take this to believe I’m out on him. Hentges is a 6-foot-8 left-handed pitcher with strikeout ability. I very much want him to hit and be part of the future. My current thinking is that to do that we need to be careful with how he is used right now, that’s all.

gerbs
I’m okay with him staying up but working on a starters schedule would be better for him IMO.

Michael Bode 
Well, to combine both thoughts, then pitching 2-3 innings in either the Mejia games or Quantrill games (whichever one needs him) could be a blend. The Tribe has enough bullpen arms to make his use-case more specific if they choose.

gerbs
I think working with the starters and creating a game plan and mapping out his days to go along with Mejia/Quantrill would go a long way to help him out. Bringing up a starter to work out of the bullpen doesn’t work if you’re just plugging him in and using him like you’d use Bryan Shaw or Nick Sandlin. Making a plan and growing the player/mind is better for long term growth

Michael Bode 
Agreed, that makes sense.

mitch 
The Tigers have employed the piggyback method in the past with their ragtag group of starters. It seems to make sense. Just ride each pitcher as many innings as you can, with the understanding that most of the time, it’ll be like 60-70 pitches.

Michael Bode 

Shane Bieber is headed to the injured list with a right shoulder strain

Kyle Nelson recalled

— Zack Meisel (@ZackMeisel) June 14, 2021

I guess every available arm is a starter now.

mitch 
I know I’m the lowman on Zach Plesac but please Zach, heal!

Michael Bode
Can Plesac pitch left-handed for a bit?