I don’t care about the NFL Draft and it’s amazing
April 20, 20212021 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings: Cornerbacks
April 22, 2021OK, so a weird week just ended for the 2021 Cleveland Indians, and Naylor’s lack of glove at first has put the Ohio Cup in jeopardy of traveling down South for the first time since 2014. And Tuesday, Ka’ai Tom was just DFA’d by Oakland, so the Tribe can bring him back into the fold too.
What are you thinking when you’re thinking Tribe right now?
Andrew Schnitkey
I just listened to the latest Dery Bros podcast this morning, and I fully agree with their comments about the roster construction being really weird this year. I know Oscar Mercado falling apart really messed with their CF plans, but between them not really having CF options who played there in spring training, their stubbornness with keeping Jake Bauers on the roster, playing Naylor at 1B but not playing him there at all in the spring, etc, etc, there are just a lot of things that don’t make a lot of sense to me on the surface.
I don’t pretend to know how much giving Rosario time at CF in spring or playing Naylor at 1B (or having Bobby Bradley or Daniel Johnson on the roster) would make a tangible difference in wins or losses, but it DOES feel to me like the Indians are handicapping themselves to some degree.
gerbs
A lot of spring felt like they were on autopilot, expecting a full and normal build up, that Mercado or Bradley Zimmer were going to step up and take over center and Bauers was going to progress…and then they looked at the calendar and saw it was March and said, “hey where are we at?” and it’s Donald Glover walking back into the apartment with pizzas
Andrew Schnitkey
Yep, precisely.
It just feels like they’ve been sort of making it up as they go.
gerbs
Amed Rosario not getting any playing time in center before the last two or three weeks when we all knew he was going to be a super utility guy once the trade went through and Cesar Hernandez was signed was awful.
Bauers I give slide a bit because A) we all knew he was going to break the season as the starting first baseman due to his contract and B) the batted ball data actually looks decent for him, just bad luck.
However, in the same vein, not giving Josh Naylor any work at first when he is your immediate backup plan seems to be a bad decision
Andrew Schnitkey
I get point A, even though I disagree with it in the big picture, but point B doesn’t move me much. I’m sorry, I just do not think he is good enough. I don’t think he should be on this roster.
Michael Bode
It is weird because while the Dery Bros issues brought up are valid, the Indians also kept Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario on the roster and have already brought up Sam Hentges, which is far more aggressive than past seasons with prospects.
I’ve never liked Naylor at first base (he is simply not good there). I never liked Bauers either though he has been surprisingly competent… with his bat. It hasn’t shown up in production yet, but he has been consistently hitting the ball hard. I mean, I was ready to let him go in March but he’s earned more playing time.
Dave Sterling
what if there were some sort of time, BEFORE the season, where you could play some games that didn’t really count to see if some guys were good at baseball or not…
we could call it “late winter warm up”
Andrew Schnitkey
A novel concept, Dave.
gerbs
“early summer instruction”
Michael Bode
I’m going to push back on Naylor at first because I think the Padres and Indians have made it crystal clear that he isn’t a first baseman in their minds. He was thrown there in this last year of NL-no-DH rules, but that does not appear the intention of the organization moving forward (unless lots of things go very wrong).
Andrew Schnitkey
I guess I’m fine with Naylor not playing first, but I think there are better options than Jake Bauers.
But if we find ourselves in a position where he’s going to be getting playing time there, I feel like Naylor probably should have had more time in spring there. I mean, it’s clear the decision at 1B wasn’t based on merit, but on contract status. So why even bother with the Bradley charade?
Michael Bode
Is it?
Andrew Schnitkey
Oh, you think Bauers looked the best in the spring?
I mean, Gerbs literally just said above we knew it would be Bauers because of his contract and you didn’t push back on that. But now you are?
Michael Bode
I’m a big Bradley fan, so I’m biased towards him. The organization said Bauers was hitting the ball with much better authority and he has always been the better at defense there between the two. A tie goes to Bauers due to that contract status. So, I laughed when the org told us those things… but it’s been backed up by how Bauers has hit the ball in April, honestly.
gerbs
We don’t know that Bauers was hitting the ball harder/better in the spring because there were no Statcast cameras in Arizona this spring
So we have to take their word for it that he was hitting it better
Andrew Schnitkey
Baseball is so weird to me now. If we’re arguing that Jake Bauers has been good this year, I just don’t know what else to say.
gerbs
But if that’s the case, his luck has been awful for two months now, not just one
Michael Bode
Bauers hasn’t been “good.” He has been much better than what his production shows. He is still striking out too much, he isn’t walking enough, and he’s had terrible luck (or perhaps there’s more to it and he’s hitting the ball to where the defense always will be).
Andrew Schnitkey
Maybe he needs to rub a lucky rabbit foot or something.
Michael Bode
I still think Bauers won’t be on this team in September, but I also think he’s earned a few more weeks.
Andrew Schnitkey
I guess that’s where I just disagree. If we’re pretty sure he’s not going to be on the team in September, I just have no interest in wasting any more time or ABs on him.
Michael Bode
We’re not pretty sure. Or I am not. I am guessing based largely on my knowledge of him in previous seasons and the fact it has been a small sample size in 2021.
Andrew Schnitkey
I do get it, though. There was a time Bauers was a well-thought-of prospect and the Indians have been burned by guys they’ve given up on in the past.
Michael Bode
Is the batted ball data from this month something he can sustain? If so, then he’s going to eventually be a good enough bat. If he cannot sustain the contact authority, then it’ll be time to cut bait.
Andrew Schnitkey
I feel like you’re tying yourself in knots to defend Bauers here, Bode. One minute you say you think he won’t be on the team in September, the next you’re telling me how you’re not sure.
As always, I’ll be more than happy to be wrong about Bauers. But him having bad luck is not a strong argument in my eyes.
Michael Bode
Nope, not at all. Perhaps I’m not being clear enough but this is a part of the process and a big reason why the Indians have continued to be a good organization. They are not just looking at pure production stats but everything underlying and allowing that to guide their decisions. That won’t always work, and sometimes your initial thoughts on a player will bear out, but you have to work through the process to be sure.
Andrew Schnitkey
The good news is, the Indians are just 1 game back in the division and we’re spending this much time arguing about Jake Bauers, haha.
Michael Bode
We haven’t even gotten to team batting average leader, Josh Naylor.
Andrew Schnitkey
Gerbs’ boy Naylor and Mitch’s boy Luplow both right there!
gerbs
I just love the profile on Naylor: super contact bat with some of the highest EVs on the team. If he figures out how to lift the ball, we are in business
Michael Bode
Or hit the ball hard more often… he’s another guy who has had some bad luck bite him, but that 37% hard hit rate for a guy who doesn’t walk is tough.
Naylor’s average LA of 11.2 degrees is actually a big increase from previous years on the surface.
His best will probably be living in that middle green band. He has been a bit of a hot-n-cold hitter though, so perhaps he’ll have a hot streak coming up.
gerbs
It’s a factor of how often he makes contact that his hard hit % is so low, but you aren’t wrong either. Getting barrels and blasting them is the key to making it work and he hasn’t been able to do that often enough just yet.
As for Tom, sure he could be a decent org bat, better than Gamel at least, so I’d be happy to have him back in the organization, but we haven’t seen Johnson for an extended period of time so is Tom gonna jump him in line? Who is playing at the ATS or Columbus in a few weeks? Zimmer, Mercado, Johnson, Jones all need at bats in the outfield, so it’s full.
Michael Bode
I assume the big league club will add a fifth outfielder soon, so one of those should get a chance soon. It will be interesting to see a pecking order develop among the ‘next up’ outfielders.
gerbs
Who’s spot goes for the 5th OF then? Presumably one of the pitchers, since Hentges came up for Gamel as a bullpen backup or maybe as a Logan Allen/Triston McKenzie piggyback plan. Is it Hentges straight back down to try and get stretched? Is it Phil Maton, the one with options left?
I doubt they cut bait on Stephan, since they would lose him, and Ollie Perez is the only lefty
Michael Bode
I know a bunch of people like Maton, but I would vote him out.
mitch
I’m way late to the party, but the Padres had a $180M albatross blocking Naylor. I’m not sure their not playing him there is indicative of their feelings about his first base.
Naylor’s problem this year has been approach. He’s been chasing significantly more than in past years, and with an above-average ability to get bat on ball, that’s going to lead to weak contact.
I’m going to try to do the impossible (reader’s note: I will be unsuccessful) and convince @Andrew Schnitkey that Jake Bauers needs more time.
After not playing last year, 27 PAs is simply not enough to judge. Take a random smattering of 27 Franmil Reyes PAs and very possibly, you’ll see a dude who chases every slider in the dirt. You’d want that guy gone. Luckily, we’ve seen enough to know he punishes the ball when he makes contact. Bauers has shown in these 27 PAs some warts, but also some signs of life.
The negatives: as Bode pointed out, the guy has struck out too many times, and I think a lot of his strikeouts are uncompetitive at bats, probably why you don’t love him. He’s also seeing an inordinate amount of pitches in the strike zone this year, and hasn’t morphed them into positive results.
The hidden positives: in 2019, JB looked at tons of strikes. Just watched them go by. He still has some confounding takes, but in general, he’s been way more aggressive in the zone this year, and he’s been making contact with those pitches at an average rate. Promising! The other well-worn thread is that he’s hitting the ball hard, which is also true, and if that continues, a greater share of batted balls will find grass.
Do I feel confident Jake Bauers has a great future in MLB? Of course not! Do I think he’s played his way off the team already, as his results-based stats might suggest? I do not, but I do expect either his peripherals to sink back to hell or the results to improve.
Michael Bode
You know Andrew hit a nerve when I throw shade on Maton, and you spend an inordinate amount of time continuing the Bauers discussion (and summing up my overall point on him well better than I did) 🙂
mitch
Maton is so confusing, man. The stuff is so good, and his peripherals indicate future success. But, like, he’s been here for, what, three years now, and he hasn’t quite put it together. I think Maton is probably one of the organization’s eight best relievers, but I also know that the difference between him and the ninth or tenth guy is negligible, and he’d be back soon enough.
Andrew Schnitkey
This is a valiant effort. Can I buy that Bauers’s approach has been better this year even if results don’t bear that out? Sure. Do I think that approach is good enough that he now looks like a major league hitter to me? Nope. Bauers could be twice as good as he’s been in the past and I still think that’s not good enough to have playing time on a competitive baseball team.
mitch
I hope he’s twice as good as he was in the past!!! He could be a star.
Andrew Schnitkey
I wouldn’t hold your breath, lol.
mitch
You’re the one who brought up him being twice as good :laughing:
Michael Bode
Bauers doubling his wRC+ from 2019 puts him almost as good as Jose Ramirez 😉
OK, we cannot go any further without discussing center field. Also known as “What about Luplow?” as the rest of Tribe Twitter has caught onto your desire to have him be a non-platoon bat… but, then what happens to Amed Rosario?
gerbs
Well it can all be fixed by Bauers going away and Naylor becoming the first baseman, yes?
Naylor to 1B, Luplow everyday RF, Amed everyday CF
Michael Bode
I repeat, no to Naylor at first base.
gerbs
Sorry, forgot you have the keys to Tito’s lineup cards
Michael Bode
I swear, radio, television, etc all say “Naylor’s natural position of first base,” then he’s out there at the position moving around like a just-born giraffe. What if Naylor is the one to be platooned instead of Luplow?
gerbs
Using Amed as the RHB side of a platoon in CF/RF works, but you are taking so much off the plate to try Luplow everyday.
mitch
Naylor has 2000 professional innings at first base. Is that better, Bode?
I don’t think Naylor at first would be a bad thing. Ultimately, I think an Amed/DJ platoon, with Amed in CF, DJ in RF, and Luplow filling in the cracks, is the best solution.
Michael Bode
It’d be better without his just-born giraffe movements when he is supposedly playing the position.
gerbs
Luplow has just 15 fewer PAs against RHP than LHP for his whole career and has almost a 100 point difference in his wRC+.
Michael Bode
The real issue here is of course that we still have two spots in the lineup (and field) with a large unknown we are trying to fill. Well, three really if we want to discuss shortstop, but I think we’re all comfortable letting Gimenez play out there for now.
mitch
Naylor’s flub struck me much more as a mental mistake than a comment on his physical ability to play the position. As far as the Luplow SLANDER, we know regular at bars matter for some guys.
Gimenez has been good so far, not sure why he’s a question mark.
Michael Bode
That one play? Sure. But, I was not enjoying Naylor at first before that play, it certainly helped cement the showings of his poor footwork leading up to that play.
Gimenez has had some surprising power and his defense is as advertised good. I’m trying not to take the 38 PA as definitive. So, the poor OBP / walk rates (and a whole lotta swing-n-miss) versus the good power. I’m hopeful as I have been since we acquired him. I think he has ability to stay above average at the plate. I also think he’s still a question despite the good production thus far.
Now, brief aside, take in Luplow, Gimenez, Bauers, and Reyes… I think there might be some type of organizational trade-off going on for SWINGING BIG and accepting the whiffs if you get the barrels / good contact with it.
mitch
Sure, I agree that Gimenez isn’t a finished product or an obvious staple for years to come. But he’s definitely a real MLB option at SS, and a second-division one at best.