This Week in Tribe Baseball: WFNY Staff Chat

This week in Tribe baseball…

With the Royals sweeping the Twins (haha!)… the Tribe is just a half game out of first. Other than a rain delay finally helping us win a series against a Chicago team, what are your thoughts and observations about the Indians after the last week of baseball?

gerbs – It’s really a shame we spent so much time extolling the praises of the lineup and worrying about the possible issues of the rotation (Is Cookie ready for this? Are Civale/Plesac ready for primetime?) in the early going of the “preseason”

scott – They didn’t deserve to win that game. Two hits heading into eighth inning? I don’t have any advanced stats to lean on but my guess the odds of winning a game with those two variables is very low. That said, it’s about time they won a game they shouldn’t have after losing a handful they should have won. If I had to choose between solid pitching/underperforming bats or the inverse, I take this current situation 10 times out of 10. It still, however, doesn’t make it any less frustrating.

It’s amazing to me that they have such immense talent on such club-friendly deals but still can’t afford a safety net of any kind.

mgbode – I want to know what black magic the pitching development system is using.. because Phil Maton has been a weapon out of the bullpen (crazy small sample size alert… but his stuff has looked good too). In fact, all relievers not-named-Brad-Hand have been incredible. As amazingly unprecedented as the rotation has been… what is going on there?

mitchell – Before last night, here were the situations in which Phil Maton was used: Bottom of the fifth, down four against MIN—Leverage index: .36 Top of the eighth, up 13 against CIN—Leverage index .00 Bottom of the ninth, up 6 CWS—Leverage index .04 Last night, Sandy Alomar Jr. used Phil Maton in the bottom of the ninth inning in a tie game, which had an average leverage index of 1.84. He absolutely crushed it, racking up three whiffs and two Ks in ten pitches. Obviously it’s one outing, but that’s a huge step. You have to be hopeful.

mgbode – Yes, his usefulness in low leverage gave Sandy the confidence to try him out in high leverage. It has to be easy to manage though when it seems any number you call upon is successful. Who are the relievers you think can keep their success going?

Tribe relievers have a 1.51 ERA, 2.25 FIP, MLB-best 31.9% K%… and a ridiculous 3.7% better than 2nd place in K-BB% (25.8%).

Starters are right there too with a 2.24 ERA, 3.32 FIP, and the same 31.9% K% and 25.9% K-BB%… though the Reds’ starters are better in both categories.

davesterling – Now that we’ve won a game with it, I LOVE the runner on second.

mgbode – Both runners scored, which is wild. It just upped the overall score of the game.

gerbs – Definitely think we see Karinchak become a weapon out of the pen. If he is able to use those two pitches to keep hitters off balance, the 99+ heater and the breaking ball, then he can be as good as any reliever in the bigs. Wittgren also has established himself as a solid back end reliever

davesterling – I’d say he should forget about the curveball…GIVE ‘EM THE HEATER
https://twitter.com/charliesheen/status/1292639487160279040

andrew – Not sure if that tweet just made things better or worse.

mitchell – I genuinely don’t know how to feel about the Charlie Sheen tweet.
^these are the hot takes the people want

I know we’re all bummed about Clase’s suspension, but hey, I’m really pumped for our 2025 bullpen, led by James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, and a 61 year old Oliver Perez

mgbode – Hey, don’t forget the reliever with the most per-pitch value of any pitch type in the bullpen (according to FanGraphs)… Cam Hill’s cutter! I’m sure that extrapolating one pitch type in six innings of work is exactly how you are supposed to use that data.

mitchell – Absolutely. No statistical caveats at all. In fact, they were his first six innings. We can only expect him to get better, right?

Basically, what I’m saying is Cam Hill is going to be Mariano Rivera 2.0

mgbode – Only logical conclusion.

OK, back to @scott’s point … Can the Tribe add a bat in the outfield? I hear MLB is going to have a super weird trade deadline coming up in about three weeks…

gerbs – Just call up Nolan Jones and hide Franmil’s large frame and lack of speed/range in LF

mitchell – This is going to be a SUPER weird deadline. The teams on top—Dodgers, Yankees, A’s, Twins—I think they’ll be less inclined to make moves than normal, especially for guys on short term deals. If you’re halfway decent, you’re making the playoffs this year, where there will be twice as many teams and you’re really at the mercy of the randomness gods. No sense in mortgaging the future over this year’s October. The interesting teams are the ones on the bubble, which are going to be—how do I put this nicely?—the less talented ones. Who will they be trading with? Not the good teams, unless one of them has an absolute surplus of talent at a position. No, they’ll be trading with the absolute bottom-feeders, the bottom five or so teams in baseball.

All of which to say, Indians fans, scour the rosters of the Royals, Orioles, Mariners, and Pirates. I would guess that most of their useful pieces are trade candidates.

gerbs – I’ll take one Whit Merrifield please

mitchell – Well he is one of the best hitters in all of baseball! (sarcasm)
We’ll see how reasonable the Royals are about Whit.

andrew – If he can’t play against the Indians, would Whit even be good anymore?

scott – In the very least I hope Detroit falsely thinks their start is indicative of their talent and trades their entire farm system for rental.

gerbs – I have a gently used Domingo Santana they can have

mitchell – Lol, that would be amazing.
That’s the other interesting thing, how do teams in good positions but obviously lack talent respond

I don’t think the Tigers are particularly smartly run, so maybe they trade Tarik Skubal-type for a Marcus Semien-type. It would make this year slightly annoying, but great longterm.

mgbode – The Diamondbacks sure do have a lot of useful outfielders… and seem like they are in the midst of a lost season…
They have so many outfielders, in fact, that they put one of them at second base!

andrew – That’s the Indians, right? A team in a good position, but lacking talent/production. The Indians would never do this, but with Antonetti saying the Indians don’t really need Plesac and are debating between bullpen or optioning him, what kind of hitting could the Indians get for him?

That’s not a literal question, I guess. More of a big picture question. How hard should a team like the Indians push for a title now, this season?

If they’re going to lose Frankie anyway, should they just go balls to the wall and make moves to win the World Series this year?

mitchell – I was more referring to a team like the Tigers, Marlins, or Rockies. Or even Rangers! The rangers are currently a playoff team! The Indians were at least competing for a division even back when the season was normal.

The Indians are an incomplete, but good team, and they _always_ have an eye toward the future.

mgbode – If we just care about 2020 and 2021 (the Frankie window), then Plesac for Starling Marte + some fliers is a trade that helps both teams.

andrew – For sure. That’s why I said the Indians would never do it. It’s not their M.O. But I guess my question was more SHOULD they do it?

I kind of think they should, to be honest.

gerbs – They just got Marte, doubt they are willing to kick that in already

mgbode – Have you SEEN their rotation though?

mitchell – An above-average MLB player signed at the league minimum for several seasons is pretty much the most valuable player on a roster from a $$$ perspective. Y’know, the perspective the Indians most care about.

I can’t see them giving one up in this situation. And the way they run the team, that’s probably for the best.

mgbode – Yeah, especially given the financial spot that no fans and limited window of games w/ no guarantee of postseason (for MLB) is putting on everything.

But hey, the Indians have developed 1 outfielder each decade this century (Grady Sizemore then Michael Brantley), so we are due to have one pop up in the next few years.

mitchell – Hahahaha, here’s hoping

The other thing about this season is that (I believe) you can’t trade guys not on your 60-man roster.

mgbode – Correct but there are ways around that matter. The Tribe has 2 spots open and could DFA someone like Domingo if they wanted to add someone specifically to trade.

The bigger issue is that other teams cannot see any of these guys play right now. MLB is trying to have a data sharing program figured out… but that only helps the guys training at team facilities with Hawkeye… and only helps to a degree.

mitchell – But it means getting a low-cost rental by himself is basically off the table, because there’s no one on the 60-man that promising enough that a bad team would want him but also not a huge part of the Indians future.

That’s a separate issue, but it’s such garbage that we have no clue what’s going on at these practice facilities.

mgbode – Lots of MarioKart, I’m sure.

mitchell – Like, I don’t think there’s anyone on the Indians 60-man that would be an appropriate trade offer for both sides for a Jay Bruce type from 2017.

mgbode – Yeah, it’s a weird structure and it’ll likely result in a quiet deadline.

Plus, teams player development IS wildly different even when using the same technology team-to-team, so if that is all they are doing at these sites (probably, maybe), then I’m not sure how that even gets valued. It’s all just odd.

mitchell – Right, although I think top prospects kind of transcend organizational philosophies.

To Andrew’s original point, I could see the Indians _acquiring_ guys in Plesac’s contract situation, not the other way around.
Which means they’d either have to give up a George Valera type prospect or Mike Clevinger.

andrew – If the Indians trade Clevinger in the middle of contending, I’m done.

mitchell – In fairness, Andrew, they wouldn’t do the Cliff Lee/CC trade for prospects.
They’d just trade him for less proven guys with high potential and longer team control.

andrew – But still…..

mitchell – You’re right that Lindor’s contract represents something of a competitive window, but the Indians are trying to have another window reopen right as his closes, y’know? that involves a fine balance.

gerbs – Adding in guys like Jones, Daniel Johnson, Tyler Freeman even

andrew – I understand that. I totally get why they do what they do and I see the wisdom of it. I just would probably prefer them go all out for a Championship now and worry about the rest later.

mitchell – Clevinger is a short-term asset in a position group in which the Indians are well stocked. If they’re going to trade a starting pitcher, it’s going to be him (or Carrasco, but I don’t see that).

andrew – This could be because I am a more casual baseball fan. If the Indians have to go full-Marlins and be atrocious in between World Series titles, I think I prefer that to them always being sort of in it but never actually winning a WS

mitchell – I don’t want to watch atrocious baseball, Andrew!

gerbs – If you can get a Jo Adell for Clevinger, as former WFNYer Gage Will has brought up before, then you do that deal

mitchell – That would be a coup. The only reason the Angels would do it is because there’s just so much pressure on them to win now.

They’ve wasted the best player in baseball for too long.

andrew – Yeah, I would change my previous Clev stance if we got Adell.
(But I should add I overrate Adell because I have him in my keeper fantasy league and so I’m banking on him being really good)

mitchell – Andrew, what were your thoughts on the Trevor Bauer trade?

andrew – That one is tricky because Bauer wasn’t exactly sharp that season and it was clear the Indians staff and FO were tired of dealing with him.

I think that made it easier for me to my stomach, but in general, I wasn’t crazy about it. It’s a good comp because, again, I understood why the team did it and I thought they got really good return on it. I just in general don’t favor trades in which you’re giving up the best player in the deal.

mitchell – Our reactions to that trade were quite different haha.

The Indians got a pretty big haul from that trade, and there’s every reason to think that Clevinger would net them even more.

2.5 years left for Clev compared to 1.5 for Bauer, not to mention Clevinger’s probably better? Bauer’s doing pretty well for himself this year, but at the time, 2018 looked (and still looks) like an aberration, as you mentioned.

andrew – To me, I see Bauer still as a better player than Franmil is today. Now, Bauer is also in a position that the Indians have a surplus while they desperately need hitting. So, again, I understand the other side of it.

mgbode – It would be a funny narrative for the Indians to trade Vinnie Pestano for 4.5 years of Clevinger & then 5 plus years of Adell. I’m not sure either team would consider that deal.

And Andrew, I don’t think many would argue Reyes >> Bauer… it is that we have Reyes for more years too. An important part of that equation. You know, if he starts hitting again.

mitchell – Bauer is a better player than Franmil right now, but we have Franmil for longer and he’s younger. Who knows what he will be in two years? I love the mystery surrounding trading for young players.

mitchell – Exactly, Bode.

mitchell – Really, you don’t think the Indians would consider that trade? I do. I would not do it if I were the Angels FO though.

andrew – Right. But that’s the thing I fundamentally view differently from you guys. I care far more about the Indians winning the WS this season.

mgbode – The 2017 Indians were the best non-1995 Indians team of my lifetime. They got booted in the first round.

andrew – Yeah, there are no guarantees in life.

mitchell – Yep. This is going to sound stupid and obvious, but the most important quality necessary for a WS team, by far, is that they’re a playoff team.

Making sure this is still a playoff team in 2023 and maximizing their WS chances are interchangeable tasks.

andrew – As long as the prospects you are trading for pan out.

The Indians have been awesome at trading for prospects, no question.

mitchell – I don’t think it’s ever just going to feel like _the year_. Like Bode said, that was 2017, and the Indians floundered. It’s just going to happen one of these times.

mitchell – Look at the Nationals. There was no reason to expect that 2019 was “their year” until it actually was their year.

mgbode – Yes. For local examples, 1997 and 2016 were not particularly good years for the Tribe… until it mattered.
Until it really, really matttered, of course … and now I have to go smash something.

mitchell – If the Indians traded Mike Freeman for Mike Trout, they still wouldn’t be close to guaranteed a championship.

andrew – I don’t think I’m talking about guarantees at all, though.
I think adding Mike Trout increases the Indians chances more than trading Mike Clevinger does, though. 😉

mitchell – it was a bad example, because Trout is signed through 2172, so he’d help this year and years to come.

mgbode – It’s decreasing the error bar calculus. Every team has a certain amount of error bars despite the pseudo-randomness of baseball. Teams like the Dodgers and Yankees have smaller error bars. The same applies to the postseason. It doesn’t guarantee anything but it increases the odds of the postseason going in your favor.

The other side to navigate is to NOT become the Detroit Tigers. To not win a World Series and to also be stuck in a decade of futility because you traded everything away.

One good thing though is that this guy is starting Game 1 of a postseason series ….

Shane Bieber, Fastball, Cutter, Slider and Knuckle Curve, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/tJsdhh558p

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 10, 2020

mitchell – Yes, but it’s still a question of magnitude. Like, the error bars are massive in the playoffs for even the best teams.

andrew – The Tigers are better than the Indians this season, Bode, so I don’t know what you’re talking about! /s

mitchell – Look at the Dodgers. They’re accomplishing what every smart team wants. Best MLB team, fantastic organizational depth, makes the playoffs every year. They still haven’t won because the playoffs are super random. No one likes talking about this anymore because it makes it all seem futile.

Meanwhile, the Royals are good for two out of 26 seasons in my lifetime and they win a WS!

andrew – So you can be the Dodgers and not win or you can be the Indians and not win

mgbode – The Dodgers did have to deal with the 2017 Astros and 2018 Red Sox who are the first World Series winners since 1919 to be sanctioned by MLB for cheating… but the point stands.

mitchell – it wasn’t because the Royals were the best team. They gave themselves an opportunity by making the playoffs, and they played super well there.

mgbode – I mean, the Black Sox were cheating in the other direction…. but yeah.

mitchell – It’s beside the point, but the Nationals won a world series against a team that hasn’t been implicated but, let’s be honest, probably was cheating in some way or another

mgbode – Yes, they have not been implicated by MLB, but they have been suspected as several articles noted the Nationals went to some measures to protect themselves on advice from other teams.

Mandy Bell of Indians.com believes that it will be Adam Plutko and Jefry Rodriguez put on the trade market. I’m not sure we can get a bat better than what we are putting out there for those guys.

She also suggests that when Tyler Naquin returns this week Bradley Zimmer?!? is likely the OF sent to Lake County.

gerbs – TIL Zimmer and Domingo are both 27

mgbode – They are also the only two Tribe outfielders this year with an OBP over .170 (.395 for BZ, .366 for DS… DeShields 13 PA not qualified).

mitchell – I hate sending down Zimmer, but I also don’t know who else you send down?
Also, lol, Adam Plutko and Jefry Rodriguez will fetch 1 dollar of international spending money on the trade market.

gerbs – It’s hard to say “pull the cord” on Domingo, DDJ is gonna stick, Mercado hasn’t been decent at the plate but he will be here…I don’t know

mitchell – Yeah, I guess if I got to choose who it would be, I would choose Mercado. But, that seems the least likely.