2020 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings: Quarterbacks
March 5, 20202020 NFL Draft Best Individual Skill Sets: Quarterbacks
March 6, 2020Let me first say it’s good to be return. I am in my first week back to work and writing and editing since my wife gave birth to our second child Beatrice Grace, and the time off has rejuvenated me to continue to provide you fine readers with quality content. What the time off has not given me is an abundance of sleep, but, since we have two under two year’s old, that’s like falling off a horse… or getting back on one… whichever is easier… or more difficult… I’m so tired.
You can’t swing a stick around #IndiansTwitter without hitting someone who has firm feelings about Francisco Lindor. Those feelings are mostly good. A few might be upset that the superstar shortstop is holding a possible World Series contender hostage for the payroll equivalent of what Mike Bloomberg wasted on his failed presidential campaign, but the majority feel that this mess isn’t on the player; hello, front office and ownership. I, myself, am pro-player when it comes to contract negotiations; making up for lost or too-low wages during the front-end of careers is typical and shouldn’t be be a bad thing in regards to how we feel about players.
There’s a reason why I, and many fans who are more player-friendly and probably don’t have Chief Wahoo tattoos somewhere on their bodies, support players pulling a Rod Tidwell. In 2015, Lindor played 99 games with the big club and got paid $316,147 while performing at such a high level, had he qualified for year-end awards, his fWAR would have placed him 37th, more than stars like teammate Michael Brantley, Starling Marte, Evan Longoria, and others. After three years of similar team-controlled salary, Lindor reached the first of his three years of arbitration in 2019. He secured the bag as it were and was paid $10,550,000 by the Tribe for a 4.4 fWAR season.1 The industry, varying between organizations of course, has pegged one WAR as costing approximately $2 million so during the 2019 season, Lindor was actually providing no salary surplus to the bottom line, whereas in 2015 he was basically the same as the Clampetts striking oil.2 Cleveland’s small market payroll and success are predicated on using those early seasons from stud prospects as value surplus to help keep up with the Jones’ of New York and Boston, who can go out and buy production, while Cleveland is left to clean up the free agent scrap heap and collect their reported financial losses.
The issue, as always, is that we are unsure of how much Cleveland ownership and the Dolans actually lose each year. They are never going to open their books and show the work, despite the hand-wringing public issues. We must work under the assumption that Cleveland is one of the few– only?— modern sports franchises that makes its owners negative cash flow because that’s what they tell us after they fly commercial to spring training and give their State of the Tribe interviews to reporters who aren’t going to push them to give a straight answer. They have no reason to lie to the general public anyway.3
We now know why Lindor wants all ‘da monies’ and we know why the organization is loathed to connect itself to a possible $350-400 million player into his late 30s.
So, why is it being brought up again? Because former NL MVP Christian Yelich4 went and did a damn thing– he is reportedly signing a nine-year extension for $215 million. Well, it works out to be a six-year extension, as it rips up the last three years of the deal he signed in 2018. But, big money for a player of similar plate production as Lindor always draws comparisons, especially when you consider Milwaukee is No. 22 in team payroll to Cleveland’s No. 25. Milwaukee has a mediocre market size when compared to Cleveland’s as well, considering this report from sportsmediawatch.com has them as the 35th biggest television market to Cleveland-Akron’s 19th.5
Fans everywhere decried:
“why can’t Cleveland do this for Lindor??”
“Are we doomed to see him in pinstripes?”
“This isn’t even near what Lindor is asking, that’s ridiculous that he is asking for that much.”
“DOLANZ CHEEP”.
And, while yes, those things are true, these two deals and/or non-deals couldn’t be more different. Yelich is an outfielder, and while he is a darned good one, he is not at a premium position like Lindor is. Yelich is also 28 compared to Lindor’s 26, and while two years is not much, it is when you consider Yelich was going to be 31 at the end of his current deal before it gets ripped up. Nobody wants to be a free agent at 31, on the down-slope of your career, regardless of how good you might have been beforehand. Lastly, Yelich already had bought out his arbitration years, something Lindor has been reticent to do as he hurtles toward free agency and the wining and dining that comes with being a legit star on the open market for the first time in your life.
So, is there hope Lindor signs? Yes, there is actually. Team president Chris Antonetti actually didn’t stick his foot in his mouth like his boss Paul Dolan has and made it seem like the organization has actually… ya know… tried to bring back the phenom shortstop with these comments to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez.
Indians president Chris Antonetti sounded pretty candidate today when asked where things stand with his shortstop, Francisco Lindor … pic.twitter.com/PWHEvenSE0
— Alden Gonzalez (@Alden_Gonzalez) February 17, 2020
Couple this with reports from beat writer Paul Hoynes on Tuesday from Antonetti that “neither side has given up trying.” Lindor does have a deadline of “early March” for talks so as we continue on, we get closer to that line. Does that mean he’s done talking forever after this week or next? Multiple deals have been finalized after hard deadlines from players.
Would a $35 million per year deal cripple the Indians spending and basically make the team the “Lindor and Scrubs” show? If ownership is comfortable with around a $120 million payroll, where it was last year and, I suppose, could end up this year given trade deadline additions,6 a $30-35 million AAV is equal percentages of the payroll. Can you field a full roster minus shortstop with $90 million? Hard to say given future obligations though the organization is saying they believe they can in 2020.7
But the Yelich extension, while great for the player and that team, does not mean anything with regards to Francisco Lindor and the chances of him remaining past 2021.
- Funny that those two seasons were only off by .4 fWAR. You take a guess as to which season was barely more valuable. [↩]
- Note: Yes, you will see $8 million cited as the value of 1.0 fWAR in free agency. However, the team’s perspective includes all of those dirt cheap team-controlled contracts on the active roster, which lowers their actual cost to the franchises. [↩]
- You can wring the sarcasm out like a soaked washcloth if you’d like. [↩]
- who has comparable stats to Mike Trout over the last year and a half. [↩]
- And Kevin Kleps of Crain’s Cleveland has reported that the Indians are in the top three in TV ratings in the MLB. It’s true that ratings are percentage based rather than raw numbers of people watching, and the Indians are locked into their current cable contract. However, it helps illustrate a possible future revenue generator, while also pointing out a poorly negotiated contract of the organization’s own doing. [↩]
- If the team is in contention. If they are out of it, we will see the bottom drop out faster than the Bloomberg relevancy movement. [↩]
- And, that includes Lindor counting $17.5m against the payroll already. [↩]