Three Keys to Victory: Browns vs Ravens

The Cleveland Browns will travel to M&T Bank Stadium to face the division-foe Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon. The last time the two teams met was on December 30, 2018, with the Browns seeking their first winning season in over a decade and the Ravens looking to clinch the AFC North. After a fierce battle with plot twists reminiscent of an M. Night Shyamalan film, the Ravens won 26-24.

Fast-forward almost nine months later and the Ravens are firing on all cylinders, currently leading the division with a 2-1 record in the young 2019 season. The Browns have struggled out of the gate thus far with a 1-2 record, but are primed for a breakout game to close-out the first quarter of the season.

Let’s take a look at the three keys to a Browns victory in their first inter-division game of 2019:

1. Embrace the RPO

A run-pass option or “RPO” is defined exactly as the name suggests: on a given play the quarterback has the option to hand the ball off to his running back or throw a (typically) quick pass to a receiver. The general concept is that the quarterback reads a second-level defender, e.g. a linebacker or safety, and decides whether to hand the ball off or throw based on post-snap movement. If the defender attacks the line of scrimmage in order to stop the run, the quarterback will pull the ball and deliver a quick pass to a receiver. If the defender maintains his original position or drops into coverage, the quarterback will hand the ball off.

RPOs have proven to be a relative strength for quarterback Baker Mayfield, who currently has the highest passer rating in the league when utilizing the concept (143.8). Mayfield has performed his best on dropbacks where he holds the ball for less than 2.5 seconds. As such, the RPO fits perfectly with his skill set when used properly, as outlined in the below film exhibits from the Week 3 loss versus the Los Angeles Rams:

via GIPHY

via GIPHY

Per Next Gen Stats, the Ravens pass-rush unit is number one in the league in the quickest time to QB hurry (2.54 seconds). In order for the offense to be successful, the ball must get out of Mayfield’s hands at a quicker pace and RPOs are a worthwhile solution.

2. Slowdown the Run

The success of the Ravens offense is predicated on the run game. The team currently ranks first in yards per game (216.7) and success rate (58%) and second in total rushing attempts (111).

Running back Mark Ingram currently leads the league in yards after contact per attempt (4.30). Further, he is tied for third in first down runs (14) and is fourth in avoided tackles (13). Quarterback Lamar Jackson is the most dangerous at the position with his legs, as he currently leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards (172) and explosive runs (7).

The Browns rush defense has fared fairly well versus the run thus far in 2019. The group has the fifth-best rush defense grade of 76.0 and is 12th in yards per attempt (4.03). Where they have struggled is tackling. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Browns rush-defense has allowed a broken tackle percentage of 11.84%, which is the 11th-most in the league.

The Browns rush defense must slow down the run game, make their tackles, and force Jackson into low-probability throwing situations (especially in the pocket).

3. Cover the Tight Ends

The second-most significant facet of the Ravens offense is the tight ends, specifically Mark Andrews. The second-year tight end is Jackson’s favorite target (24 total targets and a team-leading 19 receptions) and Pro Football Focus’ second-highest graded tight end (89.7). He has the big-play ability and also acts as a safety net for Jackson.¹

Luckily, the Browns have one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL in Joe Schobert and a rising star in rookie Mack Wilson. Schobert is tied for fifth in coverage snaps per reception (16.8) and ninth in coverage grade at the linebacker position (75.3).

The league was exposed to Wilson’s pass coverage abilities in the preseason, wherein he had two interceptions in his first NFL game appearance. Further, the linebacker saw 44 targets in his final season with Alabama, which were the most in the SEC among LB prospects. He allowed the fifth-lowest passer rating on these targets (90.3).

The tandem will be tasked with covering tight ends from time-to-time on Sunday and must showcase their talents in order to moderate the piping hot Ravens offense.

Final Thoughts

It has been said that Mayfield thrives under adversity and being the underdog. The Browns are currently sitting at 1-2 and are being panned across national media outlets (adversity). NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund game-predictor model gave the Ravens a 73% win probability (underdog). It’s time the rubber meets the road and Mayfield and the Browns prove they have arrived with an early-season signature win.

1. Andrews missed his second straight practice on Thursday with a foot injury. A situation to monitor leading up to Sunday’s game [↩]