Transformers, Revenge of the Fallen: While We’re Waiting
September 2, 2019The Cleveland Browns’ story is yet to be written: While We’re Waiting
September 3, 2019There are few places you can go without seeing the new face of the NFL Baker Mayfield nowadays. There’s the ESPN Mina Kimes story in mid-July that showed us exactly how tribal Mayfield can be, bringing up the Hue Jackson incidents and comments and how Mayfield saw Jackson joining back up with the Cincinnati Bengals as an act of treason.1 Mayfield spent some time feuding with Colin Cowherd over the radio host’s comments about Mayfield, which were warranted on both sides. And most recently Baker had to clarify remarks he made about Daniel Jones in a GQ interview, stating that he “cannot believe the Giants took Daniel Jones,” stating that he was surprised when Cleveland took himself at No. 1 overall. With the league season starting in less than a week, Mayfield has to be at least a little excited that soon his play on the field will be talked about more than his off-field interactions.2
It’s that play on the field which is highly volatile in regards to outcomes. We saw two very different Mayfields in 2018: there was the early season Mayfield that was operating under then-offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s offense and the Mayfield that blossomed under now-head coach Freddie Kitchens. Haley’s offense saw Mayfield trade completions for yardage on a game-by-game basis; in the seven games under the Haley offense (six starts and the Jets matchup that Mayfield came in relief of Tyrod Taylor), Mayfield did not complete over 60% in three. Once Kitchens took over the offense, you saw a tonal shift in not only in Mayfield but the entire team. In Weeks 9-17, Baker went on to complete 68% of his passes for 2,254 yards. It’s that offense, an offense that Kitchens made a point to showcase, that makes the fanaticism over Mayfield and the Browns reach the fever pitch we are at currently.
But what offense will Mayfield be running in 2019? Kitchens is the head coach now, not the offensive coordinator, a role that Todd Monken has filled. Monken is not quite an Air Raid acolyte, but in his last job of Tampa Bay, the team led the league in yards per attempt. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston were ranked first and tenth in the stat, and despite the completion numbers for Mayfield, he finished 11th in 2018. So while the differences in methodology might seem daunting on the surface, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Despite being asked numerous times, Kitchens has been coy with who or what offense the Browns will be running in 2019, and until the games start, we won’t know.
Since we like So let’s look at best-case, reasonable-case, and worst-case scenarios for Mayfield in 2019, considering he will play all 16 games.
Best case: 4,750 yards, 40+ touchdowns, and a 70% completion percentage3
In this scenario, OBJ and Baker become a league threatening duo, with Beckham catching over 10 TDs and 1,300 yards. Jarvis Landry tops 1,000, Nick Chubb gets 1,200 on the ground and another 300 out of the backfield. David Njoku is the redzone threat we all knew he should or would become and Rashard Higgins delivers on some promise. The offensive line holds together with new recruits Wyatt Teller and Justin McCray helping out. Basically everything happens the way we want.
Reasonable case: 4,000 yards, 30+ touchdowns, and a 62% completion percentage
Basically take the above scenario and remove some of the help from the offensive line, or David Njoku doesn’t quite pan out as planned. Maybe Kareem Hunt isn’t as great as expected. Maybe Higgins can’t find the chemistry he had with Mayfield at the beginning of 2018. Any number of things could not work out and the baseline of this season is still one of the best offensive performances in Browns history.
Worst case: 3,500 yards, 27 touchdowns, and a 60% completion percentage
We see Mayfield fall back into old habits: holding onto the ball too long, not helping his lackluster line out and forcing them to provide protection for longer than they are deemed able. Beckham starts to crow and takes over his own routes, often streaming down the sidelines in double coverage and asking for the ball. Landry can’t improve on his catch rate from last season and the money Dorsey paid to the former Dolphin is fools gold.
If tasked with providing likelihoods of these three, the reasonable outcome is the easiest to see happen, shocker I know, but the best case does seem attainable. Though Mayfield and the full strength of the offense have yet to be on the field together, a function of the team holding players back to keep from injury, whether self-inflicted or not, the vibe of the roster is that this is a team chomping at the bit to get going. While it may come to fruition that the ceiling is just that, nobody can blame the fans for being excited.
- He’s not wrong; those that decried the coach has the right to get paid must have missed out on the fact that Cleveland was bound to pay Jackson the rest of his $4.75 million salary and Cincinnati was only on the hook for a prorated share of $250,000. [↩]
- For what it’s worth, he has taken all of these interactions in stride. [↩]
- This is still under what Patrick Mahomes and the blitzkrieg that was the Kansas City offense did last year. Amazing [↩]