Fantasy Football and the Cleveland Browns: While We’re Waiting
August 28, 2019Preserving Justin Fields’ legs for the long haul
August 28, 2019Last season, I introduced a new idea of setting expectations for Browns fans ahead of the team’s 2018 campaign. Everyone has their fair share of modest predictions, bold headliners, and a certain outcome in mind for this year’s team but in terms of what we should expect, that is a whole nother conversation.
Looking back into last year’s version of this column, I felt that my expectations turned out pretty well. The Browns were coming off just the second 0-16 season in NFL history and setting expectations for last season were pretty challenging.
Here is what I missed on: Hue Jackson to finish out the season as Browns head coach, David Njoku to lead the team in receiving touchdowns, Carlos Hyde to lead the team in rushing yards, the defense to finish within the top 15 in total defense, and the left tackle position to truly never be figured out.
A few brief thoughts on why I was only 5-for-10 on last year’s expectations, just because I feel the need to right my wrongs before this year’s edition.
- Okay. Saying that Hue Jackson was going to finish last season as head coach looks like the worst expectation on the surface but it really was not so unrealistic at the time. If the Browns were bringing Jackson back for a third season following a 1-31 record in the previous two, why would they not let him at least finish out the year. Hindsight says that Jackson should have absolutely been fired before last year but at the time, I felt they were at least going to see last season through with Hue. I will gladly accept the kickback on this one, as Jackson’s firing turned out to be one of the best things to happen to the Browns in years.
- I felt David Njoku was going to make a tremendous year-one to year-two jump and although he did not make the leap I anticipated, he was still one touchdown away from fulfilling this expectation. Who would’ve guessed that troubled rookie Antonio Callaway would lead the team in touchdown receptions? As a tight end, Njoku should’ve thrived in this category but a lack in red-zone targets (5) made it difficult for him to register more touchdown catches. Close but no cigar.
- Carlos Hyde did lead the team in rushing yards through his first six games but the Browns could not look past an ugly 3.4 yards per attempt with Nick Chubb dominating behind Hyde. Perhaps if the Browns didn’t trade Hyde, he would have led the team in rushing but I’d rather not even look too far into that analogy considering Chubb is a top-15 running back. I’ll take the loss on this one.
- Hear me out here. Looking back, I should have changed the wording or picked a better statistical measure than “total defense” considering it is very misleading. The Browns led the NFL in forced turnovers last season and finished 12th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average — two categories that absolutely matter. Cleveland’s No. 30 ranking in offensive yards allowed per game is not pretty but I am taking a mulligan on this one.
- Who would’ve thought Greg Robinson would answer the left tackle position to the extent that he would receive a one-year, $7M (potential for $9M with incentives) before last season. There is an argument to be made that the left tackle position is truly not figured out as Robinson is currently graded as the 142nd offensive tackle this preseason. However, this is last year, and I guess the argument can be made that he secured the position (for now.)
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Alright, enough about last year — let’s talk about this year. Here are 10 expectations for the 2019 Browns
Expect Myles Garrett to shatter the Cleveland Browns single-season sack record
Last season Garrett finished a half-a-sack away from tying Reggie Camp’s franchise record-setting 14 sacks in 1984. It would be a disappointment if Garrett did not blow this record out of the park this year and even challenge Michael Strahan’s 22.5 single-season sack record.
Garrett dropped 10 pounds before this year and is even quicker off the ball than before (recorded a 4.64 40-yard dash at the NFL combine.) He should contend for Defensive Player of the Year, especially with his opposition in 2019.
On the slate of opposing left tackles this season for Garrett are Dennis Kelly (replacing Taylor Lewan who is suspended), Kelvin Beachum (No. 51 PFF ranked tackle in 2018), Dion Dawkins (No. 40 PFF ranked tackle in 2018), (Cordy Glenn x2 (replacing 2019 No. 11 pick Jonah Williams due to injury), and D.J. Humphries (No. 41 PFF ranked tackle in 2018). To those guys: good luck.
Expect Nick Chubb to at least double his 2018 season totals in receptions and receiving yards in 2019
I feel that it is pretty much a given that Chubb is going to finish in the top-10 in the NFL in rushing yards this season, regardless of Kareem Hunt’s eventual addition to the lineup. Even with only 16 touches before Hyde’s trade to Jacksonville, Chubb still checked in at No. 10 in 2018 at the season’s end.
I am expecting Chubb to have a much bigger role in the passing game in 2019. He quadrupled his targets following Jackson’s firing and for him to register at least 40 receptions and 298 receiving yards this season Is not far-fetched. He is much more than just a downhill, bell-cow back.
Expect Baker Mayfield to throw at least 35 touchdown passes
In 14 games last year, Mayfield tied the rookie season touchdown passing record (27) and that was without some guy named Odell Beckham Jr. 35 passing touchdowns would have placed him tied-for-fifth with Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson last season.
35 touchdown passes is still slightly a lofty number but with two-more games to account for and Beckham Jr. on the scene, it should be expected. Seven (Bengals x2, Steelers x2) of the Browns 16 opponents finished in the bottom half of the league in DVOA pass defense last season. I am excited to see Mayfield’s year-one to year-two jump.
Expect Olivier Vernon to finish with double-digit sacks
In just 11 games played and as the primary defensive end with the Giants, Vernon recorded seven sacks last season. This season, he is lining up on the same defensive line as Garrett and hopefully playing five additional games.
Only three teams (Denver, Kansas City, and Seattle) had two players finish with double-digit sacks in 2018. I would have been a little bit hesitant on this expectation a week ago, but Vernon’s performance against Tampa Bay has me riding high on his potential.
Expect at least three players to attempt field goals for the Browns in the regular season
Is there any position more unsettled on this year’s roster other than maybe right guard? Even with Austin Seibert’s 4-4 performance against the Buccaneers last Friday, I do not think he is going to be the one kicking at the end of the season.
Having a good kicker could make or break this season for the Browns and until they find him I believe it is going to remain a revolving door. Could we see Cairo Santos in Orange and Brown? Maybe even Matt Bryant? Here’s to hoping I am wrong on this one but I expect to be right.
Expect Odell Beckham Jr. to finish in the Top-15 in the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdown receptions.
Even with 12 games played last year and Eli Manning tossing him the ball, Beckham Jr. finished 22nd in receptions, 18th in receiving yards, and 24th in touchdown receptions. This year he has Mayfield slinging the rock and pure domination lies in the duo’s crosshairs.
The Mayfield and Beckham Jr. connection has the opportunity to become a special one and all signs point to be just that. Even with my Browns bias aside, there is a reason I drafted OBJ and Baker in my fantasy draft, and that is because I expect them to light the league on fire.
Expect a different right guard to be the starter at the season’s end
I cannot envision Eric Kush lining up as the starting right guard against the Bengals on December 29th. The position is on the cusp of being a disaster, considering former No. 33 pick Austin Corbett has not been able to seize the opportunity.
Kush is graded as the 111th ranked guard through three weeks in the preseason. I think the Browns are going to snatch a guard from one of the other 31 teams because Kush certainly has not crushed his opportunity.
Expect Kareem Hunt to rush for at least 450 yards and add 130 yards receiving after getting back from suspension
As a rookie, Hunt led the league in rushing and quickly put himself in the conversation as one of the NFL’s top running backs. Following a lapse in judgment, which led to only 11 games played in 2018 for the Willoughby South native, Hunt ran for 824 yards in 11 games.
In his rookie campaign, Hunt rushed for nearly five yards per attempt which ranked him fourth in the league. In his sophomore season with the Chiefs, a 4.6 yards for rush average placed him 24th.
Kansas City slightly transitioned their offensive strategy from 2017 to 2018, going from a more conservative approach to attacking opposing defenses with the reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes. It will be interesting to see how Hunt fits in another supposed dynamic scheme in week 10 when his suspension is lifted.
Expect the Browns to win no less than eight games and no more than 12 games
A year ago the Browns were looking to put an 0-16 season behind them and simply be competitive. Then, Baker Mayfield emerged and caught the NFL by storm and led the Browns to seven wins.
If the Orange and Brown were to win less than eight games this season, it would be an utter failure. The team is much more talented than last year’s squad and expectations are high. For what it’s worth, I am predicting a 10-6 finish and a clinch of the wild card berth.
Expect the Browns to make the playoffs for the first season since 2002
Speaking of clinching the wild card, I think that the Browns are going to wiggle into the postseason via this route and play their hand at making the Super Bowl. I am not quite ready to say Cleveland will win the division as Ben Roethlisberger still lurks in the AFC North and the Ravens are sneaky good.
I would have been a little bit skeptical last week to make this expectation before Andrew Luck retired but now the AFC is even more wide open. My gut feeling tells me the Chiefs, Patriots, Steelers, and Texans win their respective divisions with the Browns and Chargers securing the wild card spots. Keep an eye out for the Jaguars, Jets, and Raiders this season, as I think they will have their fair shot as making it as a darkhorse team.
