Dawg Check: Browns Training Camp Day 1
July 26, 2019Trevor Bauer’s New Strategy, Same As the Old Strategy
July 26, 2019Coming into 2019, the Cleveland Indians roster brought with it many question marks, but none were greater than the outfield corps and their projected contribution to the roster. Indeed, many analysts and fans alike were stymied by the failure to pursue an outfield bat – notably Michael Brantley. The Tribe front office opted to supplement Tyler Naquin, Leonys Martin, and Greg Allen with minor additions of Jordan Luplow and Jake Bauers, leaving the anticipation that they would add where needed at the trade deadline. The outfield has not been an area of strength during this run, but this year’s crop seemed destined to take a step back from 2018 where the Indians finished 17th in the league with 5.6 WAR and 21st in the league with a 94 wRC+.
The pre-season projections supported what we saw on paper. Depth Charts expected the Tribe to rank 19th, 27th, and 28th in CF, RF and LF respectively. The table below outlines the full season stats projected by position. Future DFA recipient, Leonys Martin, was expected to lead this group with 1.5 WAR. The Tribe outfield was fated to finish in the bottom 3rd of the league.
In the early going, this unit did their best to make Depth Charts look on point. The table below illustrates the offensive output and WAR for the Tribe outfield by position and where they ranked in the league through the month of May. Following a May 31st loss to the White Sox, the Tribe’s record sat at 28 and 29 and they were trailing Minnesota by 10.5 games. As illustrated, the Tribe outfield ranked in the bottom third of the league including ranking 27th with a 72 wRC+ and 26th with a -0.7 WAR as a unit. The second chart shows individual player stats as of June 2nd. At that time the unit wielded only two league average bats with the rest of the squad well below league average (and most well below replacement).
The date of June 2nd will be the pivotal date for the remainder of this article as this was the date the Tribe bottomed out at 11.5 games out of first. Up to that point, the Tribe offense ranked well into the bottom 3rd of the league across the board while the outfield unit assembled -0.8 WAR which was good for 26th in the league. The prospects for a successful outcome for 2019 were wearing thin which prompted an early June plea to turn things around.
In fact, through June 2nd, the Tribe offense only managed one week above average while ranking in the bottom 3rd six out of ten weeks. It is notable that they did not reach a 100 wRC+ over the course of any week prior to Oscar Mercado’s May 14th call up.
As we all know now, and as the chart above illustrates, something happened when the Tribe hit rock bottom. The offense, which was teetering on the brink of disaster pulled a full 180. Over the previous seven weeks, the offense has been above league average five times while finishing in the top 3rd four weeks. There are multiple factors to this – Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez have improved to league average, Roberto Perez has found a new level – but the outfield production appears to be playing a large part in supporting this outburst.
The offense who ranked in the bottom five through June 2nd now finds themselves in the top five since, boasting a 112 wRC+ over that span. Similarly, the jump in outfield performance has helped to lead the charge pushing their way into the top ten in offensive production.
Individually, there have been no true anchors in this unit. All contributors have posted a WAR in the right direction while maintaining at worst a league-average bat (Bauers) and at best Naquin’s 134 wRC+ places him at 28th among outfielders, sandwiched between Nick Castellanos and Mookie Betts.
By position, the group expected to finish 27th, 19th and 28th in right field, center field and left field respectively, find themselves sitting 5th, 16th, and 2nd over the past seven weeks. A stark contrast to the projections as well as the first ten weeks of the season.
It is impossible to extrapolate from this where the unit will end up at the end of the season. However, underlying metrics do not point to anything that suggests this run is completely unsustainable. It appears that the addition of Mercado coupled with a fine-tuning of the roster and some well-timed AAA stints by Luplow and Allen have rounded this group into form. The outfield as currently constructed has the opportunity to not only be the best overall unit the Tribe has had during this contention window, but could also prove to be a leading force in our pursuit of a World Series championship. With 60 games left, and the trade deadline looming, this surging outfield has definitely helped alter the course of the season and have certainly given the front office more to think about as they ponder their next move.
