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June 4, 2019There are times in life where things become so out of whack, so discombobulated, that the best thing to do is step back and ask yourself… W.T.F.? Of course, W.T.F. stands for What’re The Facts in this instance – it is a family site after all. As it pertains to the Tribe, the facts aren’t pretty and May, in particular, was incredibly ugly. Following an April 30th victory over the Marlins, the Tribe record stood at 16 and 12 and they were a mere 1.5 games back of the Twins. The month of May began on a sour note with Corey Kluber exiting his May 1st start in a loss to the Marlins with what turned out to be a fractured right ulna and ended badly in a 6 to 1 loss at the hands of the White Sox – Bauer’s 4th loss of the month and consecutive losses to the Sox by Carrasco and Bauer. In between what we witnessed was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster. Coming off a month like this, the timing feels right for a distress call.
Mayday, Mayday, Mayday. The call is to be repeated three times to ensure that it is not mistaken. For the Tribe, there is no mistaking their month of May 2019. What began as a manageable situation escalated into a 10.5 game division lead for the Twins and a two-way tie for second with the Chicago White Sox. What was squandered was an opportunity to tread water as will be illustrated below. In the end, there’s not one definitive area to place blame as the team has looked bad all around. But there are clues as to whom the culprits are which allowed May to spiral out of control.
Prior to May, the Tribe run differential was a paltry +4. The offense was scoring runs at just shy of four per game. The month of May saw their run totals rise ever so modestly to just over four per game. May, however, saw a net run differential of -21. A quick look at the runs allowed column shows that Tribe pitchers allowed more than one additional run per game in May which the offense was never going to counter. While the offense has been bad, it is this spike in runs that drove the results that May delivered.
As we drill down into the numbers, we see a disturbing sign. Even with injuries to Kluber and Mike Clevinger, one would not expect as precipitous a drop in production from the starting rotation. The bullpen, the group on the long list of units to be concerned with, has more than held it’s own through May – delivering even better numbers in the month than previously recorded. The rotation, the apple in the eye of Cleveland fans everywhere, is the main driver behind this slide.
Due to injuries, the Tribe was forced to call upon the likes of Jefry Rodriguez in April. But May brought us Cody Anderson, Adam Plutko and even Zach Plesac from the farm, accounting for 10 of the 29 starts for the month. Their combined performance left a great deal to be desired as the team only won three of the ten games started by this group. Of the remaining three starters, Bieber has seen some semblance of continuity from April into May, seeing stability in his earned run average in spite of a rise in FIP. For Bauer and Carrasco, the story took a different turn. Though Carrasco’s ERA improved over the course of May, it was buoyed by a 12 inning stretch of scoreless ball. His ERA was 6.75 with those numbers removed. Bauer can be best described as a train wreck at the moment. His 5.75 ERA does not include an additional eight unearned runs on his watch (23 earned) while his 14 walks and seven hit batsmen in 36 innings pitched hint to issues in either mechanics or focus. Both Bauer and Carrasco saw a rise in FIP over the course of the month which adds to the trepidation. All of the offseason spending we could imagine would likely not have stemmed the tide cast by the performance of Tribe starters in May – a disappointing reality as we stare down the barrel of a 10.5 game deficit going into June. Unfortunately, it didn’t have to happen this way.
The Indians schedule for 2019 had a built-in assist for a slow start. Based on preseason projections, the Tribe was slated to play 61% of their games through May against teams projected to finish below .500 – a much-needed reprieve for a team ravished by injuries, slow starts and outright absences in performance. As fate would have it, that number actually increased as 71% of their games have been played against teams under .500 through May. April had the third-most games of any month against sub .500 teams with 18, while May had the most with 22 of 29. The Tribe would only manage a 9 and 13 record over the course of these 22 games finishing the month 12 and 17. Meanwhile, the Twins posted a 21 and 8 mark en route to a nine-game pick up to first place in the AL Central. In all, the Tribe mustered a mere 22 wins out of 43 games versus sub .500 opponents to date, an alarming trend considering that as we look ahead at the schedule we see that reality is about to set in – and the stretch run is especially challenging.
Of the remaining 103 games, the Tribe still have 61 (59%) against teams currently below .500. 32 of those games are against divisional foes Kansas City and Detroit. In a small sample this season, the Tribe are only two and four against them. They also face off against 16 times against division leader Minnesota, which provides an opportunity to make up ground. This week could hold a key into how the rest of the season will unfold. With three games against Minnesota followed by three against the AL East leading Yankees, this week could prove to be one of the bigger weeks in the season. It would be a more than welcome sign for the Tribe to get some footing against the Twins this week. Now is go time. June yields 16 games against sub .500 teams, while July has an additional 19. The Tribe needs to start beating the teams that they should be beating if they are going to stand a chance at a 2019 postseason. August and September only have 22 total games against teams currently under .500, so the time is now.
In an unfortunate turn of events, the Tribe enters June in a situation not many would have predicted. Coming out of a May that went off the rails, the Tribe must now rally around anything they can to right the ship and it starts with the rotation. The AL Central cushion is all but wiped out by the Twins MLB leading .690 winning percentage. The “light” early season schedule has been squandered. There are no options left but to buckle down and brace for what is to come. Mayday, Mayday Mayday.