Perfection Untouched: While We’re Waiting
April 16, 2019Your Columbus Blue Jackets: While We’re Waiting
April 17, 2019If you frequented Columbus, Ohio and made your way to High St. in the 90s and early 2000s you more than likely ran across a Buckeye legend: the rapping bum. I don’t know his exact timeline on campus but suffice it to say he was there for the entirety of my four (ok five) years of undergrad. Don Allen Robinson earned notoriety with clever and timely quips such as “I can’t tell no lie, I’m just a guy, working for a burger and a fry”, “Lordy, lordy, lordy it’s finals week and I need a forty” and “I’m broke as hell, just trying to get some taco bell”. If you lived on or around the main campus you knew or heard of him – if you didn’t, you probably spent too much time in the library.
You are likely wondering what this has to do with a Tribe take. Fair enough. What you also heard from Robinson, if you were lucky to have encountered him, was his catch phrase “help is on the way”. While his was more of an all encompassing “we should all stay positive and optimistic” statement, it was something that popped into my head as I watched the Indians futile attempt to score runs (nay get base runners) against cast offs Homer Bailey and Ian Kennedy during Saturday’s game against the Royals. For Tribe fans, help is on the way and it comes in the form of Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Kipnis and (hopefully soon) Francisco Lindor.
Cleveland’s offense is currently testing the patience of the most optimistic of fans. Through Sunday’s sweep at the hands of the lowly Kansas City Royals, the Tribe has mustered a mere 3.47 runs/game. The resulting run differential of -3 puts them tied for 8th in the American League. They also find themselves one game above .500 and in second place in what will likely be the worst division in baseball. All of this with a pitching staff that ranks 3rd in FIP, 1st in K/9 and 8th in ERA. The Tribe needs to start scoring runs and they need to do so quickly.
Heading into Sunday’s game, Cleveland’s lineup contained only three players hitting at or above league average – Carlos Santana, Leonys Martin and Brad Miller. Miller is now a DFA casualty leaving Santana and Martin carrying the torch. They also have the second largest k% in all of baseball which has further stifled run production early on in the season. Below is the typical lineup that Tito has run out through the first fifteen games.
A few things should jump out. First, Jose Ramirez. Gerbs touched on his season to date last week and look out for Mitch’s deep dive on what might be happening with him later this week. He needs to get going for us to make a deep run and I suspect he will. Cleveland currently ranks last in the league in offensive production at third base. The second concerning data point is SS. The Stamets/Moroff duo, or Stamoff, have combined for the worst production at shortstop in the whole league. It is no surprise that the offense was expected to take a step back in 2019. But third base and shortstop were two areas where the Tribe were expected to lead the league – not finish last. Finally, Naquin is performing about as expected; but he was also not expected to bat third in the order. Help is on the way which will replace some under-performing players and allow us to reshuffle the lineup.
Getting Lindor back into the lineup will be a huge boost for the Tribe. Substituting Lindor for Stamoff would have statistically yielded 10 additional hits on roughly 18 more balls put into play through 15 games. Obviously having balls in play have an opportunity to produce runs while strikeouts smother them. Lindor’s production against Stamoff projections is striking – against their current performance it is monumental. A quintessential worst out best in scenario for the Tribe. In this case two of the worst hitters in all of baseball for one of the best. Adding Kipnis is a less dramatic but useful upgrade at second base. The addition of Gonzalez will provide a veteran bat in the lineup as well as flexibility to move Bauers to first or DH. Most impactful will be the shuffling of the lineup.
Ignoring the elephant in the room (Jose) we see by swapping Stamoff for Lindor, adding Kipnis to second, Gonzalez for Bauers and reshuffling the deck the lineup takes a whole new life. This is no Murderer’s Row, but it’s a team that is very much different than the current lineup. What’s more, there is flexibility with this unit. Veterans Kipnis, Gonzalez and Martin provide Tito with multiple ways to approach the top half of the order – allowing guys like Naquin and Bauers to hit 6th or 7th and providing near league average production toward the bottom third of the lineup. It also eliminates the void at the bottom of the order. Stamoff is hitting worse than your average pitching staff to date which is unacceptable at this level of competition.
When I played Euchre growing up, my dad would always say “cut the deck you cut your luck”. But I noticed that when he wasn’t getting cards he would always cut the deck. Help is on the way and it will give us the opportunity to cut the deck – swapping in new cards and reshuffling them. This is an offense which will be constantly challenged for run production, but this span has been excessive. Gonzalez and Kipnis are already with the club. Lindor began his rehab assignment on Monday and is poised to make his season debut with the Tribe as early as next week. We are currently without our best player and clubhouse leader – but rest assured, help is on the way.