Indians Playoff Chess: Lineup Optimization

Over the coming weeks “Indians Playoff Chess” is a series Gage Will and myself have instituted for the purpose of breaking down nuances of playoff matchups. These are constructed based on the assumption that the Indians will be facing the Houston Astros.

The Indians like all teams have particular strengths and weaknesses, many of which are distinct and in a few ways difficult to exploit. Further, some weaknesses can be hidden if managed correctly in terms of risk.

First, it is worth noting that almost every decision is a probability margin play. A la, if a lefty reliever is called in to face a left-handed hitter that may reduce the chance of offensive production from 34% to 27% and so forth but the probability of success remains that of 27%. Ostensibly, managers are tasked with improving opportunistic probability as best they can but this probability remains torturous in the sense that a .270 OBP can frequently outperform a .330 OBP in a 12-25 PA sample that is the MLB Division Series. Still, this does not excuse sub-optimal decisions.

This analysis is centered on lineup construction and how the middle of the order must be constructed to limit sub-optimal batter-pitcher matchups. Now, the five, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson are in some order the Indians five best hitters.

As an overarching matter, the Indians are better against right-handed pitching (“RHP”) than left-handed pitching (“LHP”) with a .771 OPS against RHP and .741 against LHP. A key piece of this comes from lineup centerpieces rather than matchup pieces. Indeed, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Guyer, and Yan Gomes are ideal back of the lineup pieces against LHP. However, the Indians have an issue against LHP in the middle of the order.

The Indians top 5 have the following career splits using wRC+. ((100 is league average anything below 100 is that percent below average and above is that percent above league.))

Player                                                    RHP             LHP

Francisco Lindor                                116                 131

Michael Brantley                                123                 94

Jose Ramirez                                       127                 116

Edwin Encarnacion                           124                  130

Josh Donaldson                                  132                  164

One number sticks out, Michael Brantley against LHP, another is Ramirez gap against LHP considering the lineup to date has been:

1. Lindor
2. Brantley
3. Ramirez
4. Encarnacion
5. Donaldson

This lineup creates two problems that is the 2-3 slot and the 4-5 slot create obvious situations to utilize same-sided relief pitchers to create sub-optimal matchups.

First, Brantley probably does not belong in the top 4 but if deployed at #2, Ramirez should not hit #3. That is because the Indians two worst hitters in the top 5 against LHP would be hitting 2-3, tempting an opposing manager into deploying a LHP from the bullpen, and allowing Dallas Keuchel two pieces who are softer in the middle. Former Indian Tony Sipp will be deployed primarily from the bullpen and is most valuable to the Astros if they can deploy him against Brantley-Ramirez consecutively. While single-season splits can be deceptive, Ramirez splits are even more extreme in 2018 with 161 wRC+ against RHP and 120 wRC+ against LHP.

Encarnacion and Donaldson next to each other are similarly dangerous back to back in that it is an obvious RHP versus right-handed hitter scenario. With Hector Rondon, Roberto Osuna, and Joshua James waiting in the wings, Encarnacion and Donaldson back to back would create a disadvantage. If the Indians lineup is left as is, the Astros will be able to more easily deploy relievers and target matchups.

However, if the Indians were to structure like the following:

1. Lindor
2. Donaldson
3. Ramirez
4. Encarnacion
5. Brantley

their lineup would be far more difficult to attack from a matchup-based perspective.

However, one positive is that the Indians need not flip Alonso and Gomes because Alonso should be deployed in a strict platoon scenario. Alonso is 40% better against RHP than LHP in 2018 and basically unplayable against LHP. Whereas, Yandy Diaz is simply better against LHP based on minor league and big league splits. Deploying this platoon effectively will aid the Indians in creating advantageous matchups and forcing reliever changes.

The Indians against the Astros is going to be a complex and well-constructed matchup. The two best rotations in the American League face each other and creating any marginal advantage will be essential. Therefore, the Indians have to be methodical about structuring their lineup to force advantageous matchups; these matchup keys start in the middle of the order.