Displacing Kipnis — A Plan for Making Room for Josh Donaldson

When Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff decided to go out and get Josh Donaldson, they were aware of the risk. It was a low-cost flier in relation to the potential reward that can be gleaned. Parting with a 27-year-old pitching prospect working his way back from Tommy John surgery for a month-plus rental of a former MVP seems like a manageable price. The other portion of the price portfolio, however, is bumping a veteran having a rough year out of a spot he has manned for years. Predictably, Antonetti and Chernoff were fine with displacing Jason Kipnis, as they should be.

Upon Josh Donaldson’s arrival, which could be as early as next Tuesday, Jason Kipnis will be out of a position. He has no one to thank but himself, after posting abysmal hitting numbers over the previous 17 months. No matter the arbitrary starting and end points you want to insert, Kipnis’ impotence at the plate is pretty consistent over that time frame. However, he is still a legitimate option to help patch up other holes in the lineup.

The only problem is there is only one feasible destination – center field. You’re not displacing the Melky Cabrera and Brandon Guyer platoon in right field due to sheer effectiveness, whether that effectiveness appears sustainable or not. Kipnis joins Greg Allen and Rajai Davis as the only serviceable options to fill the center field hole. With the American League Central in the bag, it’s time for the Indians to embark on some experimentation.

Despite what small sample size metrics say about his defense, Allen brings a solid glove to the position and can be a wrecking crew on the base paths. The glove alone puts him ahead of Davis in the pecking order, but the hitting numbers are similar, as well, with the unknown surrounding Allen’s bat providing just enough ignorance to suggest there is a much higher ceiling there (at this point in their respective careers). This leaves the decision to allocate center field reps between Jason Kipnis and Greg Allen.

October baseball is a small sample size glut of importance. Each plate appearance is magnified profusely, as we witnessed through Jose Ramirez’s struggles in last year’s division series against the New York Yankees. With that said, the Indians best play is perhaps to put Jason Kipnis in center field, if only to see if he just might maybe get hot at the right time. I know, this goes against the opening of this piece, which highlighted Kipnis’ lack of bat for an extended time. Still, there is something that lends a bit of optimism about the overall Kipnis profile.

Throughout his career, Kipnis has been enigmatic at the dish. There are extended cold periods, in which strikeouts pile up bolstered by weak contact and a surge of infield fly balls. On the other side of the coin, though, there are stretches where Kipnis goes absolutely en fuego.

Tumultuous would aptly describe the Kipnis plate profile over not just the last several years, but his whole career. This leads to an easy decision for September reps.
Give as many center field reps as possible to Jason Kipnis. We know he can, cough, serviceably perform most of the duties required of a center fielder. Let’s peek to see if his bat can gel at the right time leading into variance-laden October baseball. If he continues to be an above average bat at the plate, as he has since June, the advantage gained by opting for his bat over the unknown with Greg Allen is large enough to negate the defensive value lost and then some. If his bat doesn’t gel and looks cold heading into October, you can shuffle back to the Greg Allen scenario.

The fallback plan works better in this scenario, as well. You can bank on Greg Allen’s defense and baserunning, even if the plate appearances aren’t there. Additionally, you can utilize Kipnis for the first half to two-thirds of games, then opt to Greg Allen for defense should your team have the lead. In the alternate scenario, you are left with just Kipnis on the bench – someone you don’t want to utilize late in the outfield – which doesn’t make much sense given the fact that you aren’t yanking Donaldson, Ramirez, or Francisco Lindor.

I implore Indians fans to be patient with the next few weeks of the center fielder Jason Kipnis experiment. It makes sense, especially considering that the games matter very little and any potential mishaps aren’t going to cost you in the long-term. There simply aren’t many options due to the injury to Bradley Zimmer and Leonys Martin’s terrifying illness. Buckle up for some bad routes on fly balls, and hope that Kipnis finds a groove that is reminiscent of his glory days.