Dan Gilbert thanks LeBron in letter following James’ departure to LA
July 2, 2018Thank You, LeBron
July 2, 2018The Indians season has been marked by conversations about selling, wasted offseasons, an easy path to the playoffs, and whether now is the time to push the chips all in. Despite unmatched brilliance from Jose Ramirez, Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, the Indians stars and scrubs roster has left Indians fans confident in a division crown and doubting anything beyond an American League Division Series appearance. The question raised on talk radio and perhaps inside the organization goes something like this “Is this the year to go all in?” or like this “Will the Indians sell the farm for this one swing?”
These are broad and profound questions with an intricacy that will not be addressed in this article concerning one’s pitcher crush. Yet, breakouts like Bieber’s inform organizational philosophy. Indeed, most exciting about Bieber’s early success and his overall 2018 ascendancy is that for a moment, we could look beyond 2018.
One of the questions as former core players like Michael Brantley, Cody Allen, Yan Gomes, and Jason Kipnis move slowly towards their end in Cleveland was whether the Indians could develop players to supplement the current core. Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer, and veterans like Corey Kluber Carlos Carrasco.
The early returns in 2018 were bleak with Bradley Zimmer and Greg Allen struggling mightily offensively; as well as the organization essentially placing no trust in Yandy Diaz. For the Indians to remain competitive, World Series contenders, some supplements have to be developed in-house, and the calendar year has not seen any major supplement break out. That is until the articulate man from U.C. Santa Barbara emerged.
In-house developed supplements are important because of affordability, like it or not from a moral standpoint, cost-controlled pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players are central to the Indians ability to be flexible in terms of offseason and in-season acquisitions.
First, it is important to note that Shane Bieber is not Corey Kluber, nor is he an ace. Expectations of starting pitchers have become an absurdity with Kluber, Carrasco, and Bauer all having posted Cy Young Caliber production at different points. Mike Clevinger, of course, is a top 15 pitcher in fWAR and is likely the Indians 4th best starter when everyone is healthy. This surplus of rotational brilliance will tend to obfuscate good but not dominant big league pitching.
So far, Bieber has been dominant. Four starts 24.1 IP, 2.22 ERA, 2.68 FIP, and a K% of 26.2%. There are three major components that are useful for a surface level review of a pitchers talent. K% for swing and miss/runner stranding abilities. BB% for limiting base runners, and GB% as a proxy for contact management.
Below is where Bieber would rank in those 3 categories if he qualified with the requisite innings among starters. GB% 51.4% (9th), BB% 3.9% (4th), and K% 26.2%(21st). These are elite rates which raise the question as to what is sustainable, and if not, where they can be expected to rest.
First, how does Bieber’s production in these categories compare to his minor league performance?
2018 Akron: 24.8 K%, 0.8% BB%, and 46.6% GB%
2018 Columbus: 25.8% K%, 3.1% BB%, and 55.8% GB%
The strikeout percentage looks elevated based on career production in the minor leagues but not severely. The ground ball rate might also be slightly elevated but only at the margins and finally, Bieber’s walk rate is sustainable. Bieber’s swinging strike rate has been an impressive 12.3% so far which if qualified would be good for 16th among starters. Of course, as hitter’s get a book on Bieber that will probably decline a bit but his arsenal has had dynamic pieces.
First, an expedited review of Shane Bieber’s arsenal. Bieber’s fastball is inducing just over 50% ground balls and thanks to above average arm side run and plus command is a heavy offering to play off.
The below gif from Pitcher List demonstrates Bieber’s ability to throw it on the outside edge with some run.
While fastball is Bieber’s dominant offering at roughly 50% usage his best pitch is a tight slider which Bieber commands exquisitely. The slider has induced a swinging strike percentage of 32.4% as well as a ground ball rate above 50%. Bieber uses it beautifully right below the strike zone or buried.
If one tires of such graphic depictions, the below demonstration is suitable to portray its filth.
Filthy slider from Shane Bieber to strikeout Miguel Sano + pickoff at first ends his first inning.
What a start to a career. pic.twitter.com/pMGlRdx95x
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) June 1, 2018
Bieber has also had significant success with his curveball in inducing swing and miss as a third more loopy offering which can also be spotted for called strikes. Alas, the final pitch is the changeup which has been middling and needs work. Earlier this year, talking to the Athletic Bieber mentioned that the changeup was a growth area.
“Some of those guys, the changeup sort of plays into their swing path, so I have not needed it to be stressed, but I know that is something that needs to come for me developmentally and it is something to focus on for the future.”
Perhaps this became too granular but the reality is Bieber’s slider plays like a plus offering paired with a nice curveball and excellent fastball command.
Now let’s predict a little regression in Bieber’s Major league stats using those three key indicators.
Set the K% at 23%, the BB% will be stable at 4%, and a GB% of 49%; using those normalized markers lets look for pitchers with similar components from a full 2017 or 2016 and consider their overall value.
2017 Gerrit Cole: 23.1% K%, 6.5% BB% 45.8% GB% 4.26 ERA/4.08 FIP
2016 Rick Porcello: 21.2% K% , 3.1% BB%, 43.1% GB%, 3.15 ERA/3.40 FIP
2016 Johnny Cueto 22.5% K%, 5.1% BB%, 50.2% GB%, 2.79 ERA/2.96 FIP
2016 Masahiro Tanaka 20.5% K%, 4.1% BB%, 48.2% GB% 3.07 ERA/ 3.51 FIP
There is obviously not a perfect fit but there are a lot of near fits that make Bieber’s profile enticing as a #3 or #4 starter with the potential to cover stretches as a high-end #2 because of his ability to limit baserunners.
Shane Bieber is the type of prospect who sneaks past everyone because elite command is a skill we often are hesitant to assign as quickly as elite stuff. Shane Bieber has elite command, he has the makings of a middle of the rotation arm who will buttress this rotation for the next half-decade.
In a season where more highly ranked prospects have cratered and returned to the minors, the Indians appear to have found a part of their future in Shane Bieber, and right now, that is pretty exciting.