Getting to know Bobby Hoekstra: While We’re Waiting
July 19, 2018Baseball and the World Cup
July 19, 2018As baseball hurtles into its unofficial half-way point, the Cleveland Indians are 52-43 and lead the AL Central by 7.5 games. With no real baseball to watch for a couple days, this feels like the perfect time to engage our intrepid Indians writers on impressions from the season’s first half and expectations for the second. The pennant race will be here before we know it.
Through 95 games, how would you grade the 2018 Indians on an A-F scale?
Bode: The Tribe gets a B- from me. The organization took care of business in the division (28-13), which is still the most important thing to do. Unbalanced schedules allow a good team to dominate a bad division, and removing hope from the rest of the teams by having a 7.5 game lead means it is doubtful even the Minnesota Twins will find it fruitful to be buyers at the trade deadline. There is no chance the Indians could receive an ‘A’ grade though because of how they handled their position with younger players not being given opportunities and the audacity to enter a World Series contending season with the state of their bullpen and outfield.
Corey: A solid “B” with a note from the professor that reads “I know you can do better.” The Indians’ starting rotation is the envy of the American League and Jose Ramirez’s burgeoning MVP campaign should be a compelling second-half storyline. Still, the bullpen is questionable at best and twelve-car pileup at worst. Some position players have regressed to near unplayability, and the management can be head-scratching (OT vs. OP, anyone?). Still, the pluses outweigh the minuses and in the playoffs, anything can happen.
Gage: Grading is a subjective beast, or at least that’s what I told myself when my essay that took 30 minutes to complete at Thompson Library in Columbus received a ‘C+’. Similarly, the Indians have played C+ ball to this point, for me. Before you pounce, it’s all relative to expectations. Beyond the dominance of Trevor Bauer, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor, there has been little for Indians fans to rejoice. The Michael Brantley gamble is the next closest thing, as he looks to have found the rejuvenated version of himself. But the Indians bullpen issues and the lack position player breakouts leaves a bad taste in the mouth.
Gerbs: The majority of the play on the field has been an A for me, simply when you consider the all-time great seasons Jose Ramirez and Trevor Bauer are putting forth, coupled with MVP-esque campaigns by Francisco Lindor, Corey Kluber, and Michael Brantley. However when you look at the rest of the squad, that A has to be pulled down to at least a B if not worse. The bullpen (and Tito/Willis/Atchison’s handling of it) has been a dumpster fire. Carlos Carrasco has not taken the step forward into Cy territory like Bauer, but it’s hard to find too much fault in him. The outfield outside of Brantley resembles one of the all-time great shows: MASH. Meatball surgeons doing just barely enough to ensure the patient doesn’t keel over on the table. Sometimes you lose one, but you’re saving most.
Jay: It’s a solid B from me, and almost all of my reasoning to bump them down from an A centers on bullpen issues. With the exception of a couple impactful injuries in center and right field, the Indians have essentially lived up to or exceeded expectations in every aspect of their roster. The rotation is once again chugging along just fine, ranking third in the MLB in ERA (3.46) at the informal halfway point. While center and/or right field looks like it needs an upgrade this July, the lineup has been rock solid as well, thanks in large part to incredible efforts from Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. It’s just that darn bullpen and its 29th-ranked ERA (5.28) that has been continually dragging this team down.
Jim: The team is in first place, and will be until the end of the season, and had six All-Stars. They’ll have multiple pitchers up for the Cy Young and MVP if everyone stays healthy. It should be an easy A, but it isn’t. The Indians outfield has the fifth worst fWAR and is near the bottom of the American League in every meaningful category. Likewise, the Indians’ bullpen has a -.9 fWAR, a 5.28 ERA, is giving up 1.71 HR’s per nine innings, and has the lowest usage rate, by a lot, in all of the Majors (257 1/3 total innings compared to the Astros 281 innings). With two pretty important position groups at or near the bottom of the league statistics, I have to give the team a B-. They have a lot to address in the next six weeks.
Gilbert: B-. The Indians have taken care of business against the bottom-dwelling teams, especially within the division. But, the Indians have not fared as well as I would have liked to see against the top teams in the league. The first 95 games have been good but not great. And that is fine for now with how the division is playing. However, it cannot remain. I think a couple tweaks to the bullpen and outfield can shore up the roster and propel them back up into the conversation as the best team in baseball.
Poloha: B-. Luckily for the Indians, the AL Central grades as an F-. The starting rotation is solid and guys like Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and the rest of the All-Stars have carried the club so far but the bullpen has been less than ideal. That B- can easily be improved if (and when) the Indians make a couple moves, but until the bullpen and outfield improve, it’s going to be tough to do very well against non-Central teams.
True or False: The Indians will remain in first place for rest of the season.
Bode: True. Easy one as the second-place Twins are only 1.5 games up on the Toronto Blue Jays. A couple Blue Jay wins would mean that the rest of the division is behind the Top 4 teams in both the AL East and AL West. The AL Central is horrific; outside the Tribe.
Corey: True. I could see Minnesota cutting the lead to under five with a hot week, but the Twins seem to be a slot below the Indians in terms of talent and potential. Cleveland should thank its lucky stars that such an underwhelming Tribe team is playing in baseball’s worst division.
Gage: Without a doubt. For all of the apparent issues with this year’s club, they are light years ahead of the Minnesota Twins. A couple additions this month will widen that gap even more, and there are few remaining places on the schedule for the Indians to concede the requisite number of games to the Twins.
Gerbs: True. I mean, c’mon. Who is gonna challenge them in the AL Central? Minnesota might as well start selling some pieces but keeping most, the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals are all in varying stages of disarray and rebuild. Kansas City already traded Kelvin Herrera, might as well go all in and deal Mike Moustakas and others. However, being in first place alone for most of the season does not mean “take your foot off the gas pedal” or “don’t use all that cash you saved in the offseason specifically for the deadline now that you are there alone”.
Jay: True. The AL Central is the gift that keeps on giving and the Indians are absolutely here to reap the benefits. Their record against their own division is tied for the second-best in baseball and I don’t expect that to change much in the second half.
Jim: True. Every other team in the A.L. Central will likely be sellers, and if the Indians stand pat and do nothing, they should still win the Central by ten games or more. The Indians should be major players in the next two weeks and are always in the market during waiver trades in August, so they’re winning the division. Let me put it this way, if they don’t, Terry Francona will have a lot of questions to answer, and so will the front office.
Gilbert: True. This division is trash and the Indians are in another league from the rest of the division.
Poloha: True. A team full of WFNY writers and commenters may even be able to compete in this horrible division this year. I’m half-kidding, but seriously, the Central is really, really bad.
Which aspect of the Indians clubhouse concerns you the most heading into the second half?
Bode: Unless Andrew Miller comes back healthy and another high-end reliever is acquired, the bullpen should give any Northcoast fan angst. Hopes Danny Salazar could jump-start into a relief role have already been dashed with his surgery, and Cody Anderson has quietly not yet appeared (he has now pushed past initial return projections).
Corey: Bullpen. While the past month has appeared more stable than the season’s opening, there is still plenty of concern and pearl-clutching to be found in the eighth and ninth innings. Cody Allen has yet to play as sharp as last season and gigantic question marks are hovering above Andrew Miller. Some fresh faces may be required to steady the ship.
Gage: I’m going to flip the script a bit here and say the nightmare in the outfield. Despite Brantley’s breakout, the health concerns still linger. Brandon Guyer is just not effective enough to merit mention as a solution. Lonnie Chisenhall is alternating the ice pack between calves, at the moment. Greg Allen is an uncertainty, at best. A deal for an outfielder should be imminent, despite the apparent lack of plus options.
Gerbs: Can I say Francona without getting roasted on Twitter?1 His inflexibility with regards to young players helping out the club (where is Yandy Diaz? Why can’t Mejia get more than a spot start?) and his handling of the rotation and bullpen (the OT/OP nightmare, starting pitchers arms being held together like Eddie Harris) could doom this club before the playoffs start. Makes me think of last year where Brantley and Chisenhall inexplicably made the postseason roster despite having played a week’s worth of games heading into the playoffs.
Jay: Closer. I could simply say “the bullpen” and be spot on in my analysis. It’s been the worst unit of this team by a long shot. However, I feel like a couple moves at the deadline and the return of Andrew Miller could quickly make this a mediocre bullpen again, and I am certainly willing to settle for mediocrity here. The role I’m worried about is the closer. Cody Allen’s ERA has climbed all the way up to 4.66 and has completely lost the trust of the fanbase. Francona will surely stick with his guy through thick and thin because that’s what he does: he sticks with his guys. But that’s the very thing I’m nervous about here. How long will Tito keep Allen as a closer? Even if Miller is eventually swapped in there, will he instantly be able to deliver in the postseason after an injury-plagued season? I’m nervous.
Jim: The outfield. I know I should be talking bullpen, but if I look at this with playoff goggles on, it gets a little complicated. In the playoffs, the Indians will shift to a four-man rotation and will move a starter into the pen, adding some help there. Andrew Miller will be back, and there should be some help acquired as well. The pen will get better, and the rotation will cover a lot of any issues that remain. But the outfield? The Indians don’t really have any internal options they seem ready to move. Francisco Mejia was dropped under the wheels of the bus by the manager, and will likely be traded anyways. Zimmer had massive question-marks before he was injured and now won’t have any time to work on the offense prior to fall baseball. Right field is like a group of keystone cops, and now Lonnie Chisenhall is in exactly the same position he was last year. Brantley has been a dream but let’s not forget that he made the All-Star game last year as well, with almost the exact same statistics, minus the power. I’m not sure the Indians can address the entire outfield in a meaningful way.
Gilbert: Bullpen. The Indians bullpen is scary to me. The two pillars of Cody Allen and Andrew Miller are looking shaky. Allen has struggled to be consistent this season and Miller’s health is a question mark. The rest of the bullpen is a mystery. Yes, Oliver Perez and Neil Ramirez have performed well to try and strengthen the bullpen. But, can those guys be reliable in the playoffs? Cleveland needs one or two quality relievers to shore up this weakness.
Poloha: I’ve already addressed this in a previous answer, but the bullpen and outfield are what bother me the most. They have enough talent against the dismal Central, but unless there are multiple moves made to improve each, good luck trying to beat teams outside of the Central in the postseason.
Which aspect of the Indians clubhouse gives you the most confidence going forward?
Bode: Is this where we mention the Indians have two legit AL MVP candidates (Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor) and two legit AL Cy Young Award candidates (Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber)? If it is not the proper spot, then well too bad. High-end talent (add in Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco, Michael Brantley’s bat, and Yan Gomes’ defense) is where the Indians thrive.
Corey: Jo-se Jo-se Jo-se Jo-se! The Tribe’s third baseman – .302/.401/.628, 29 homers, 70 RBI – could very well be the Indians first MVP since Al Rosen in 1953. Even if he doesn’t bring home the hardware his steady glove and steadier bat are tentpoles of the team’s defense and offense.
Gage: The starting rotation is pure brilliance, even accounting for the recent Kluber health questions. Trevor Bauer is a legitimate Cy Young candidate and Shane Bieber has already proven that he can be effective at the major league level. Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger provide a luxurious level of stability, and that is considerably underselling them. The plethora of starting arms mitigates some of the October bullpen concerns.
Gerbs: Having two MVP level players on the left side of your infield makes things so much easier. Knowing that Lindor and JRam are holding down the top half of the lineup for years to come gives a fan a certain sense of security. The clockwork-like abilities of those two is what was missing in the playoffs last year, but neither have shown any signs of slowing down like 2017.
Jay: The top half of this lineup. Lindor, Brantley, Ramirez, Encarnacion, and Alonso could very well be the best top five in the league, save for maybe Houston. The average numbers of those five guys this season: .277 BA, 20 HR, 133 wRC+. Between that and the starting rotation, I’m confident about the most important guys on this roster.
Jim: Having an outstanding starting rotation can be expressed enough. Corey Kluber has been the unquestioned anchor over the past five seasons, with Carlos Carrasco close behind. The fact that both Kluber and Carrasco haven’t quite been themselves, only to have Trevor Bauer continue his drive to be the best pitcher in baseball has been fun to watch, and I still don’t think we’re seeing Bauer’s best. Clevinger is a perfect 3-4-5 starter, and Shane Bieber looks exactly the same as he did in the minors. The JRam/Lindor brigade is super fun, but this rotation is the blessing that keeps this team in first place.
Gilbert: The starting pitching. Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Mike Clevinger have pitched extremely well this season. Carlos Carrasco has not played to his usual level due to inconsistency and injury, but we saw last season that he is one of the best pitchers in the entire league. So, I have confidence in Carrasco that he can regain his top-level form. Also, don’t look past Shane Bieber, who performed quite well in his first stint with the team. I am really comfortable going four deep in the rotation with Bieber being a nice fifth option. The Tribe is in great shape with these starters.
Poloha: When you have six All-Stars you can lean on, it’s always a good thing. Add in guys like Mike Clevinger, Cody Allen, and (hopefully) a healthy Andrew Miller soon and that just adds to the talent atop this team. Now, the Indians just have to worry about strengthening their weaknesses and they will be good to go.
Should the Indians pursue Manny Machado or another big name rental? How much would you be willing to give up?2
Bode: No on Machado. Finding a rental position player at a more reasonable price though? Certainly, and Adrian Beltre or Josh Donaldson could fill that requirement. The cost will depend on the player, but it is worth noting most rumors on the relief market with the Indians are for non-rentals as the team might lose both Andrew Miller and Cody Allen this offseason (so they want to set up the bullpen for next year at least too).
Corey: Yes within reason. If a bidding war develops between Cleveland and Milwaukee or Philadelphia I would be extraordinarily careful not to overbid for a free-agent-to-be like Machado. Looking past him, the Indians would be wise to call after a Zach Britton or any big name reliever who is available.
Gage: I won’t sit here and advocate against a Machado rental, simply because the fan in me would hang on every minute of that offense. Organizationally, however, the prospect of acquiring Machado makes little sense. He doesn’t add enough pop to be significant in the variance-laden playoffs and the Indians don’t need to mortgage prospects for his help in making the playoffs. On the rental front, Adrian Beltre and Josh Donaldson spark some interest, and even Zach Britton, who looks to be finding some of the dominant velocity that has eluded him the past year and a half.
Gerbs: While I would love to see Manny Machado in a Tribe jersey, the prospect cost for three months of a player that doesn’t fit well on the roster seems super silly. I would be willing to deal a lot if the players in return had multiple years of control, but as far as “big name rentals”, I don’t see many more that would push the team any further in the rankings/postseason. As much fun as Donaldson or Beltre or Andrew Jones or maybe even everyone’s longtime crush Andrew McCutchen would be, the needle doesn’t move much for me.
Jay: Machado, No. Other rentals, probably. With a small market club like the Indians, it’s really a case-by-case basis when it comes to short-term rentals. Machado has simply too high of a price to pay for the Indians and doesn’t necessarily play a position of need. On the other hand, I would love to take a chance on Zach Britton and his expiring contract. This bullpen will need more than one arm to truly see significant improvement, but Britton can be a big name splash for the Tribe that would add depth and closing experience (if that should come into play).
Jim: The Cleveland Indians should do whatever it takes to improve their team…period. It’s not optimal to trade for a rental in a small market, and with the Dodgers acquiring Machado for a package of players including Yusniel Diaz, a top 100 prospect who is having a fantastic season in Double-A Tulsa, you can see that the cost for the Indians would be high. There aren’t many rentals out there that I see as being any better than a waiver trade option that costs you our 18th best prospect, so at this point, I’d lean towards a high cost, high control trade, like the Miller trade of two years ago. But they were engaged in the Machado talks almost until the end, which is what a good front office does. With that said, the Indians’ window is tied directly to the starting rotation, and the Lindor/JRam duo. Lindor is likely only with the club for 3 1/2 years, and the bulk of the rotation’s contracts are tied to that same time frame, so I’m less concerned about dealing Mejia and McKenzie than most. If the Indians can manage a deal that includes both Drew Steckenrider and Kyle Barraclough, I’d have one of the top two guys in it. If they turned to the Reds and could bring in Amir Garrett and Raisel Iglesias, I’d have one of the top two guys in it. On the outfield front, if you really want to change the game, you give the Pirates whatever they want for Starling Marte, who’s signed through the end of 2019, with two team options. In other words, HIS window is the same as OUR window.
Gilbert: Obviously, this is a moot point in terms of Machado, but in the case of another big name rental, I think the Indians need to go all in. Though, the rental player should be someone who fills a major need on the roster, like in the outfield or bullpen.
Poloha: The Indians can’t afford to give up a bunch of solid prospects for a rental. Their mid-size market just doesn’t allow that. So Machado is a big no from me. But, depending on the player, it may be worth giving up a top prospect or two, especially if said acquisition has multiple years of control.3 Cleveland needs to take advantage of having guys like Cody Allen and Andrew Miller, who will both be free agents at season’s end.
Which potential playoff opponents would you most and least want to face in October?
Bode: Bring on anyone. The Boston Red Sox have been the best team in baseball in 2018, but who cares. The Indians have enough talent to compete with anyone in a five or seven-game set. The depth of their rotation, defense (when they aren’t mucking it up), and offense can kick anyone out of the postseason. Of course, the AL playoff teams are all stacked, so any team can also send the Tribe home. Should be a fun October.
Corey: I do not want to play the Yankees. Not in the ALDS or ALCS. It was encouraging to see the Tribe and Pinstripes split a four-game series last week, but the Yankees’ potent lineup should be avoided at all costs. Also, I would be absolutely miserable if Cleveland loses to Aroldis Chapman’s team for a third straight year.
Gage: There is just something about the Houston Astros that concerns me a bit more than the Red Sox or Yankees. All three clubs are similarly equipped from a talent standpoint, but spending approximately 70 percent of a series taking swings against Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton is somewhat terrifying.
Gerbs: After splitting the weekend series with the Yankees, I would love to see them in the playoffs. A five-game series might be a bit tougher, as they could throw Luis Severino twice, but a seven-game ALCS matchup against New York would favor the Tribe, as the Yanks just don’t have the front-line starting pitchers it would take to matchup with Cleveland. That being said, Houston does, and if Cleveland were to face them at any point in the postseason, I would be less than happy about that.
Jay: Bring on the Mariners baby. The rest of the American League field honestly looks incredibly talented. The Red Sox, Astros and Yankees all have had impressive seasons so far and bring the postseason experience that the Mariners lack. I could see each of those three teams winning a World Series. As a result, I want the new kid on the block. It’s unlikely that the Indians can draw the M’s in a playoff series simply based on each team’s seeding in the AL, but that is quite honestly the only team that doesn’t scare me in this field. I’m willing to say this: the 2018 World Series champion will be an American League team.
Jim: This is a hard question for me to answer right now, figuring the Yankees will make some deals heading towards the deadline, and with the Red Sox engaged in bullpen talks as well. I ALWAYS want to face the Yankees in the playoffs, and while saying that after the ridiculous loss last year seems idiotic, I just like the idea of our team heading into a Yankees series for payback. If we add some players in the next six weeks, we’ll be as good as anyone. The team I’d like to see the least is the Red Sox. I know I should probably say the Astros here, but I do think the Indians match up well against Houston. Honestly, the hell with it…the Indians match up well with anyone. Who cares…Cleveland against THE WORLD.
Gilbert: I do not want to face the Yankees. They just seem like a bad matchup for the Tribe. The lineup is formidable with hitters littered throughout the batting order. And if the Yankees get a lead going into the late innings, the game is pretty much over. New York’s bullpen is as shutdown as any bullpen I have ever seen. I would most want to face Seattle. Seattle does not have the depth of pitching and hitting that the rest of the contenders have in the AL. The Indians would match up well with them and I think would make quick work of them in the playoffs. I think the Mariners are clearly a step below the rest of the playoff contenders.
Poloha: If the Indians make some deals to improve the bullpen and outfield, I’m not afraid of any team. It would be fun to take down the Yankees though, especially since they knocked the Tribe out of the playoffs last season.
What are your expectations for the rest of the Tribe’s season and (hopefully) postseason?
Bode: This could be THE YEAR!
Corey: At the moment, this does not appear to be the strongest version of the Indians’ roster in this contention window, but anything can happen in the playoffs. Considering how many contracts will be up for grabs in November, any result less than a league championship should be considered a failure. Of course, it has been 70 years since the team’s most recent World Championship; it would be nice to get another one of those.
Gage: October baseball has shown anything can happen. The top of the American League is absolutely loaded, though, so the odds of beating two of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros appear bleak. I will say, though, that if Terry Francona’s pitchers are healthy with an addition of a Brad Hand or Kyle Barraclough type, they will not be an easy out for any of the top clubs.
Gerbs: I’ve been super Debbie Downer as of late on the Tribe, but there is legitimate hope that this club could make some noise in the postseason. If the bats continue to heat up and stay hot, unlike last year, then this team has a real shot at making it to, and possibly even winning, the World Series. Playoff baseball is a variance machine, but with two top five hitters and all of those starters, Cleveland does in fact rock.
Jay: I hate to put my expectations as high as “winning a World Series” or something so lofty like that. So, my expectation is that the Indians play in a competitive ALCS series. If they can get to that point, then they are clearly doing something right and have a chance to win a ring. Like I noted above, the National League field looks pretty bleak this year, so if they can get through the gauntlet of the American League bracket, I’d like the Tribe’s chances against any team that comes out of the senior circuit.
Jim: This team is built to win the World Series. That’s the way the front office is acting, standing pat this offseason waiting for the deadline to make a move, and they’ve stuck to it. That’s the way the on-the-field-management is acting, using the regular season as an extra spring training, figuring out what they have (in a ridiculous fashion, I might add). That’s the swagger that the team has, from the top down. If you don’t believe me, watch Brantley, Lindor, JRam, and Kipnis. Watch Kluber and Gomes, and Bauer and Perez, while they’re warming up in the pen. This is a team that is not only hungry for a World Series but expects it. If the front office does its job, I think we’ll see a second half for the ages, and an October to remember.
Gilbert: If the Indians can pull off a couple trades to add a piece or two in the bullpen and one in the outfield, I have high hopes that this could be the year.
Poloha: World Series or bust. Bring Cleveland another ring, baby!