Bieber Curving and Sliding to Success

From the vantage point of prospects that are pushing towards major league readiness, the Indians season has been an unmitigated disaster. Bradley Zimmer is shelved until next year with a shoulder injury. Greg Allen was offered a brief look but left his bat in Columbus. Yandy Diaz was stored on the Clippers roster for nearly four months. Erik Gonzalez started bright but faded quickly. Francisco Mejia was traded away for bullpen arms. The only saving grace takes the mound against the red-hot Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday night.

Shane Bieber, a seasoned collegiate pitcher, was drafted less than two years prior to his MLB debut. The quick ascension is telling – the Indians were all-in on the arm, despite a lack of overwhelming velocity. He made quick work proving his worth at each level, never exceeding 90 innings pitched at any stop. The reasoning was simple: command, command, and more command. Free passes were placed in the rarity department, as Bieber’s success hinged on keeping runners off the bases.

Translating that command to the major league level is a major adjustment. You can’t get away with the 2-1 fastball on the outside corner, or at least not at the same rate. He has adjusted accordingly, mortgaging an extra walk or two for whiffs on the back end. This isn’t to say he has been erratic, but merely erratic but his standards. His 1.66 walks issued per nine innings is lightyears ahead of the MLB average of 3.29. The miraculous feat has been his ability to walk the line between plus command and inducing whiffs. Most command-centric hurlers tend to fall along the lower ends of the whiff spectrum, with notable exceptions made for the elite.

Delving into how that tight-rope between whiffs and command unveils the central aspects of Bieber fever. Nearly one of every eight Bieber offerings has resulted in a whiff in his short career. Only one of every eighteen or so hitters reach base because of lack of command. A staggering discrepancy like that has a foundation, and for Bieber that house is built by diversification and approaching each opposing hitter with a discernible plan.

Against left-handed foes, the curveball is the go-to bender. Against right-handed hitters, it’s the slider. There is good reason behind this approach: lefties tend to square up his slider better, as would be expected against a right-hander. This approach leads to heavy damage on hitters with the breaking balls. His short stint this summer has seen approximately 37 percent sliders and curves, which is almost becoming the norm with Indians starting pitchers. The reason? Major leaguers still have a tougher time hitting breaking balls, as indicated by higher hitting marks against fastballs.

Bieber tends to attack, and generate whiffs, right and left-handed batters in the same area of the zone. He moves it down and away from righties, while down and in to lefties. This is also where he generates the most whiffs.

This graphic depicts sliders and curves in their respective locations and the frequency in which hitters swing and miss, from the catcher’s point of view. Hitters tend to chase his benders when they drift out of the bottom of the zone, which is the strongest evidence of pristine command that you will need. Despite these pitches being considered out of the zone, they are swung at often because they start as a strike and just barely crawl out of the zone. Plus command doesn’t equate to always being in the zone, but also a world in which your misses are good enough to swing at and in locations that don’t lead to a lot of damage.

By keeping the curves and sliders down, in general, Bieber has managed to significantly mitigate the opposition’s power. The average MLB hitter’s slugging percentage against curveballs and sliders in 2018 clocks in at 0.352, per Baseball Savant. Bieber’s mark is nearly a twenty percent improvement at 0.292. Additionally, he has been able to dance around a lot of trouble with timely strikeouts, but that has not inhibited his ability to fend off damaging contact. When comparing his expected weighted on base average allowed to his actual weighted on base average allowed, it is immediately apparent that he could be considered unlucky.

Using command to drive breaking balls down and away from right-handers and down and in to left-handers. Giving your breaking ball enough plate in its path to induce whiffs or meager contact on balls that leak out of the zone. Issuing half as many walks as a league average pitcher while still generating more swings and misses. These are the Bieber staples that have led to, and will continue to lead to success at the major league level. Virtually nothing in baseball is a guarantee, but Bieber has proven quite quickly that he is more than capable of pitching in the major leagues.