The Cavaliers and trading for Kemba Walker

The Cleveland Cavaliers enter the 2018 free agency period wondering, once again, what LeBron James will decide for his future. Now that the 2018 draft has passed, the Cavs now have a much clearer vision on what they can and can’t do, or perhaps the better phrasing are what they will or won’t do.

The Cavs selected Alabama’s Collin Sexton, and while time-and-time again, I’ve seen writers and fans discuss how much LeBron James’ camp loved Sexton, I’m often reminded of LeBron’s tweet regarding Miami first round selection, Shabazz Napier in 2014.

My favorite player in the draft! #Napier

— LeBron James (@KingJames) June 27, 2014

The Heat, if you remember, did everything they could to make sure they got Napier. They dealt away their first rounder that year, as well as two second round picks, all to move up two spots to pick up Napier. While you can argue the whys of that pick, after seeing the LeBron tweet, that’s the only why that you need. They were trying to find anything to entice LeBron to stay, especially after making several moves in the prior 18 months that did everything to alienate their star player.

A year later, Napier was dealt in a salary dump, as the Heat fought to get under the luxury tax ceiling. Napier was traded to the Orlando Magic for a, get this, protected second round pick. The Heat would only get that second rounder if Orlando finished with one of the five best records in basketball. In essence, they gave Napier away.

Now Collin Sexton isn’t Shabazz Napier, and I don’t think the Cavs drafted him because of the rumblings that LeBron loves him. Did it play a part? Probably, but I do think there are tangibles regarding Sexton that the Cavs like going forward. In other words, I think the Cavs like Sexton as a piece to the puzzle should LeBron James leave via free agency. But this article isn’t about Sexton, but whether or not the Cavs have the pieces to legitimately get Kemba Walker.

So what did Charlotte do in the draft? In the weeks prior to the draft, it looked like Michael Jorden’s Hornets were zeroing in on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a 6’6″ point guard from Kentucky. There were even reports that the Hornets were calling the Cavs to gauge interest on trading up to get Gilgeous-Alexander, as there were also reports that his stock was climbing.

Choosing a point guard made a lot of sense for Charlotte. With Kemba Walker about to enter the final year of his contract, Gilgeous-Alexander would have a year of Walker-tutelage before being able to take over the role once Walker was gone. Of course, with rumors circulating that the Hornets are trying to move Walker’s contract to get max value, it would also give the Hornets a young point guard, just in case.

So of course, Charlotte then dealt Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to the Clippers for their first round pick, and two seconds. In other words, they basically just swapped spots, and the Clippers selected Miles Bridges from Michigan State, in his place.

I like Bridges, but he won’t answer their point guard issues should Kemba Walker leave, and since that’s what we’re here to talk about, can the Cavs still acquire Kemba Walker?

For the Hornets to deal Walker, they’d want to include an unwieldy contract with it. The two that stand out are the contracts of Nicolas Batum (two years, $49,565,217, with a player option he’ll no doubt pick up, at $27,130,434) and Marvin Williams (two years, $29,093,750). With $75,000,000 attached to Batum, let’s just figure he’s locked to Walker in any trade.

The Hornets would then want two key intangibles in return, and this isn’t rocket science. They’d want future assets (preferably some sort of lottery pick first rounder), as well as contracts that aren’t guaranteed (of the one-year variety preferred).

And before we dive too much into this, I’m taking Kevin Love off the table. My belief is that for the Cavs to legitimately keep LeBron going forward, Kevin Love will have to be playing forward/center with Kemba Walker. Losing a stretch four at this point would be silly, and while Love takes his knocks, there aren’t many better at it.

The Cavs don’t have any foreseeable major first round assets, especially if LeBron stays (if he leaves, it’s different, but then this piece is voided). They do now have Collin Sexton, and you could likely throw in Cedi Osman and perhaps even Ante Žižić. As far as one-year, non-guarantees go, the Cavs don’t quite have that, although they do have some non-guarantees in their second year.

At the top of the list of non-guarantees in 2019-2020 is George Hill. Hill, due to make $19,000,000 this coming year, is set to make $18,000,000 the following year, but only $1,000,000 of that contract is guaranteed. While Hill isn’t perfect, since he’s locked for a year, he’s still playing well, would be a good starter at the point guard for a year, and is off the books the following year at small cost.

Next on the list of non-guarantees in 2019-2020 is J.R. Smith. Smith is due $14,720,000 this year, and $15,680,000 next year, but only $3,870,000 is guaranteed in the final year of his deal. It’s not a small price to pay, but it’s easy to write that off the books, if you can put up with Smith in a non-winning scenario for one season. Ask the Knicks about that.

The last non-guarantee candidate is Kyle Korver, who has a much more modest deal in place, at $7,560,000 this year, and $7,000,000 in the final year of his deal, of which only $3,440,000 is guaranteed. Korver, a much more manageable player with a skill that’s not likely to degrade too much in the coming year, would likely be somewhat enticing in a trade.

If the pool of players is Collin Sexton, Cedi Osman, Ante Žižić, J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver, and George Hill, it’s rather easy to make a deal that works, at least in terms of a straight up trade.

The likely best-case scenario deal for the Hornets from the Cavs would be the following:

The Cavs acquire:
Kemba Walker
Nicolas Batum

The Hornets acquire:
Cedi Osman
Collin Sexton
Kyle Korver
George Hill

The Hornets pick up two young players that will fit into their plans for . years to come, and after one season, can open the coffers a little more, once they buy out Korver and Hill. Heck, Korver and Hill become trade assets at the 2019 deadline as well, to any contending team looking for such players…and teams will be looking. They lose their massive contract in Batum, and don’t have to worry about losing Kemba Walker.

The Cavs get Walker, and another unwieldy contract. It still makes them better, and gives the Cavs another playmaker to go along with LeBron James.

Seems pretty simple, right?

I have one big problem with this trade up front: I think the Cavs want to keep Sexton. I get it. He’s a rock solid player. I still can’t get over this game:

Alabama freshman PG Collin Sexton dropped 40 points (12-21 FG) while playing 3-on-5 vs No. 14 Minnesota 🔥🔥

🎥: https://t.co/8UY8pp6vRE pic.twitter.com/fZ7DjJFPmA

— SLAM Magazine (@SLAMonline) November 26, 2017

Sexton has skill, and while I’m not as convinced as everyone that he’s going to be a rock solid defender at the NBA level, he does have a lot of intangibles that you can’t measure, which really makes him hard to project. But I think the Cavs want to keep him.

And if the trade looks like this:

The Cavs acquire:
Kemba Walker
Nicolas Batum

The Hornets acquire:
Cedi Osman
Kyle Korver
George Hill

…does the trade even make sense for the Hornets? Sure, they get George Hill to play point guard, but they don’t have a back-up point guard, now that they’ve also dealt Gilgeous-Alexander. Obviously they could sign someone, and would, and would likely then look to their future point guard situation in next year’s draft, assuming they have a high pick.

I don’t think this is the deal the Hornets would make. Now maybe you throw Sexton back into that deal, and take Osman out, but again, is this a deal that the Hornets would want to make?

I’m not sure.

Also realize that Žižić is interchangeable with Osman money-wise…Osman makes more, but not enough to qualify as a difference maker. It’s clear that Osman holds more weight in trade circles than Žižić.

Would this deal make sense?

The Cavs acquire:
Kemba Walker
Nicolas Batum

The Hornets acquire:
Cedi Osman
Ante Žižić
Kyle Korver
George Hill

Obviously, it would be a little more tolerable, but the Hornets are still left without a point guard.

Now it’s hard to gauge what the Hornets are inevitably looking for. The minute they traded out of Gilgeous-Alexander, I immediately thought “perfect fit for a Sexton trade.” But again, it’s hard to say.

In a perfect world for the Cavaliers, the best trade they could make is almost straight up.

The Cavs acquire:
Kemba Walker
Nicolas Batum

The Hornets acquire:
J.R. Smith
George Hill

The salaries are within $1,000,000 of each other, and boom, done. In your head, you can probably sell this as a “well, the Hornets are out of those deals in 12 months,” but that’s still a hard sell to me. Any deal with J.R. involved is tricky. He’s more than a non-guaranteed deal to me, but again, you just never know what the other team is going to get. Obviously, you can add pieces to this, but if Smith moves in a trade like this, I’d have to believe that Sexton is almost locked in.

The good news for the Cavs is that they don’t have to make a deal today. This is the type of deal they can line up while they wait for LeBron James to make his decision. That, of course, can get tricky, as LeBron tends to wait until the last minute to make up his mind. In 2010, the Cavs were left with no moves to make, because the free agent period was already ten days in, and I believe LeBron made his decision on the day before the moratorium ended. The same thing happened to the Heat in 2014, as LeBron mulled over his decision until July 10-11th, and the moratorium ended on July 10th that year. This year, the Moratorium again begins when the new season cycles in on July 1, and only lasts until July 6, when players can then put the pen to the contracts they had already lined up during that six-day period.

LeBron will likely wait until the sixth to make his decision.

And here is where it gets murky. Sexton will likely hold his value into the summer, meaning, the Cavs can trade him at any point, as they did with Andrew Wiggins. The key to the Wiggins deal is that they had LeBron signed before they finalized that deal. That would have to happen again.

LeBron would have to sign on the dotted line, which would make dealing Sexton a lot more feasible.

Or…

The Cavs can make the deal before LeBron signs, hoping that he stays…but if he doesn’t…

You see the can of worms this opens. The Cavs do then have a pretty tangible asset in Kemba Walker, who would absolutely be traded once they were able to, before the trade deadline for future assets. The problem here is if they add Cedi Osman or Ante Žižić, or both, to the deal to get Walker. If Sexton is involved, you know, they won’t have to include both, and probably not even one or the other, but again…who knows.

The point being, to get Kemba Walker, the Cavs have assets to do it, and have different time frames to accomplish it, but each carries its own set of barriers.

The biggest of these barriers may not involve the Cavaliers at all. While the Cavs do have the type of trade-package that would entice Charlotte, in the end, there are likely going to be other suiters with better parts to make said deal. While Charlotte could “help the Cavs out,” I hardly think that Michael Jordan’s franchise is going to do much of anything to help LeBron James’s.

Of course, that’s just speculation…

…which is all we can do while we await LeBron James, and his next free agent decision.