500 Words on why Baker Mayfield should be Browns first choice
April 23, 2018Welcome to the most important draft in Browns’ history: While We’re Waiting
April 23, 2018In a healthy weekend of successful baseball, the Cleveland Indians proved again in Baltimore that they remain one of the American League’s top teams. Despite an inconsistent offense —ranking as one of the AL’s worst through one-eighth of the season — the Indians showed they can still win the two-out-of-three necessary en route to a third consecutive division crown.
But in the other dugout lurked a player for the Baltimore Orioles — about to suffer through a fourth consecutive full-length-playoff-series-less season — who ended up dominating much of the online conversation throughout the weekend. This player is 25-year-old Manny Machado, a three-time All-Star who is set to be the most coveted free agent in a decade at the end of the 2018 season.
Machado went 5-for-10 with three solo home runs over the course of the three-game weekend. He’s off to a spectacular offensive start for the lowly Orioles, who sit at 6-16 and already are 11-plus games behind the division lead. Given the presence of Boston, New York, and Toronto in the constantly competitive AL East, Baltimore likely realizes its doomed fate to a long-delayed rebuild. Which leads to a troublesome situation for Machado’s long-term future.
How could the Indians figure into such a situation? Let’s dive into the details.
The salary
The Orioles and Machado avoided an arbitration hearing with a one-year $16 million contract agreement in mid-January. Machado previously earned $5 million in 2016 and $11.5 million in 2017. Given the usual 40-60-80 arbitration rule of thumb, this sets the path for a long-term contract worth at least $20 million annually.
One would think his agent, Dan Lozano, is setting up Machado benchmarks right up there among the top position player contracts in MLB history: Alex Rodriguez’s original 10-year $252 million deal; A-Rod’s renegotiated 10-year $275 million deal; Giancarlo Stanton’s gargantuan 13-year $325 million arrangement; Miguel Cabrera’s 8-year $247 million contract; the 10-year $240 million deals for both Robinson Cano and Albert Pujols; and the 10-year $225 million contract for Joey Votto. Note: Lozano negotiated those deals for Pujols and Votto.
Machado only turns 26 years old on July 6. He’s already played 786 career MLB games, debuting just after his 20th birthday back in 2012. His exceptional combination of youth, experience, and superstardom so rarely hits the open market in pro baseball. The odds of a long-term match in Baltimore seems unlikely on the surface, given the Orioles unfortunate state of play. Machado has played only seven career postseason games.
The suitors
Obviously, the New York Yankees have been the most rumored match for Machado’s future. Despite the Yankees’ offseason trade for Stanton and his giant contract, no one doubts that franchise’s ability to hand out massive amounts of money.
Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported last week that the Chicago White Sox also could be a dark-horse contender. The Yankees, Indians, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers all engaged in Machado trade discussions with Baltimore during the offseason, according to Heyman’s story. The Chicago Cubs also may be involved on the periphery of conversations, too.
ESPN’s David Schoenfeld salivated over the concept of Machado in an Indians uniform over the offseason. The idea of Cleveland gunning for it all in 2018 – while the roster remains as young as it does and before the potential free agency of Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, et al – sounded like the sexiest potential trade match.
Sure, Cleveland may not be able to afford a long-term deal for Machado. But why not go for it all now, given the fickle nature of October baseball? Contention windows may be an over-hyped concept, so the Indians could remain good for a long while, but competing against Houston and New York right now becomes a whole heck of a lot easier if Machado is in the everyday lineup.
The potential package
Gage Will wrote in February about constructing a potential deal for Machado. At the time, he theorized a potential trade package of starter Mike Clevinger and top-10 prospect Willi Castro. To me, that’s a starting point … but as an inherent pessimistic, it’s probably not yet enough for Baltimore.
Clevinger, 27, has been a dominant starter for the Indians for a season-plus, as highlighted by his two-hit shutout on Saturday in Baltimore. Castro, 20, had an impressive season for High-A Lynchburg in 2017 but seems blocked as a long-term shortstop internally by Francisco Lindor and older prospect Yu-Cheng Chang.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported in December that the Orioles goal in such a deal is “two young, controllable starting pitchers.” Certainly, as a larger chunk of the season moves forward – thus reducing Machado’s potential rental value – maybe Baltimore becomes more willing to compromise on that initial goal. But Baltimore has the advantage of asking for all top offers from around the league.
For me, if I’m Baltimore looking at Cleveland’s list of assets, I’d have to at least ask about the availability of top pitching prospects Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber. McKenzie, 20, has not yet pitched in 2018 due to a forearm injury but was fantastic in High-A last season and ranks as a top-50 prospect in all of baseball. Bieber, 22, has skyrocketed up the prospect charts with his continued spotless pitching and has wowed nearly everyone in Double-A Akron so far.
If Baltimore requires two MLB-ready arms, then maybe Triple-A starters Ryan Merritt or Adam Plutko could enter the conversation, too. Danny Salazar, despite his injury issues, could be enough of an upside bet to help a deal get done. Maybe position players Yandy Diaz, Greg Allen, Bradley Zimmer or top-5 prospect Bobby Bradley would spark tremendous incentive for the Orioles front office. Either way, I’m not as optimistic about Gage’s initial theory being quite enough with all of the competition for Machado’s services league-wide.
The elephants in the room
Oh, wait. I haven’t yet mentioned two of the biggest topics related to Manny Machado’s potential fit with the Cleveland Indians?
One, Machado switched back to his original shortstop position this offseason. It’s his strongly preferred position in the infield and “where my heart has always been.” He played third base almost exclusively during first six MLB seasons.
But the Indians already have a shortstop, whose name happens to be Francisco Lindor. Machado would likely be forced back to third base in Cleveland, pushing Jose Ramirez to second base again and Jason Kipnis potentially to the outfield. It’d be a difficult and potential uncomfortable re-arrangement.
A potential mediator in such a conversation? That could be brother-in-law Yonder Alonso, the 31-year-old first baseman who signed a two-year $15 million deal with Cleveland in the offseason. Machado married Yonder’s sister Yainee in November 2014. The two are close, as oft-mentioned on the television broadcasts throughout the weekend.
Could Alonso help to make a short-term marriage more palatable between the superstar and the Cleveland Indians? That’d certainly be a crucial advantage. One certainly would imagine it came up this weekend in Baltimore and will continue to be discussed frequently until an answer arrives for Machado’s long-term future.