Evaluating an Evolving Edwin
April 6, 2018A Master’s Sunday, A Broken Reliever and NFL Draft Saturation: While We’re Waiting
April 9, 2018The birds chirp a little louder while somehow also being less annoying. The alarm clock doesn’t seem quite as annoying this morning, the coffee definitely tastes better, and you know exactly what shirt you’re putting on because today is the home opener for Cleveland Indians baseball. After a West Coast road trip, a week of 10:00 pm games, and local weather that made it seem less like baseball season and more like high school football, the Tribe comes back to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario to try to re-take the American League Central with a weekend series against the intra-division rivals Kansas City Royals. Let’s take a preview of the matchups for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Friday: Carlos Carrasco vs Danny Duffy
Cookie Carrasco looks to rebound after a less-than-stellar outing against the Seattle Mariners last Saturday. Carrasco came away with a win in a game he had no business winning, thanks in large part to a grand slam by Yonder Alonso and a home run by Yan Gomes. Carrasco only went 5.2IP on 77 pitches while giving up five runs to the Mariners, striking out four batters and walking none. Look for Carrasco to right the ship against the suddenly-less-free-swinging Royals and keep from stretching out a bullpen that, despite the off day yesterday, could use the rest already.
Facing Royals starter Danny Duffy will bring about some struggles for Cleveland, as the everyday lineup will see some switches with the left-hander on the mound. Michael Brantley is due to return, and with the demotion of Tyler Naquin, the lineup should get marginally better, but it does not answer the problem with the lefties. I expect Rajai Davis to start in center for Bradley Zimmer and Brandon Guyer in right for Lonnie Chisenhall, so as to limit their exposure to tough left-handed pitchers. A possible lineup construction could (or some might argue should) look like this:
- SS Francisco Lindor
- 2B Jason Kipnis
- 3B Jose Ramirez
- 1B Yonder Alonso
- DH Edwin Encarnacion
- LF Michael Brantley
- RF Brandon Guyer
- C Yan Gomes (Gomes caught Carrasco’s start and also started against lefty James Paxton on Saturday)
- CF Rajai Davis
Such a lineup would split up any handedness repeats (with the exception of Guyer/Gomes/Davis…there’s just no lefty option at catcher, which also underlines WFNY’s Michael Bode’s point made yesterday that Francisco Mejia, a switch-hitter, should be up with the team as soon as possible) while also allowing for timely substitutions of Chisnehall and Zimmer as the game wears on. Brantley would slot in the 6th spot of the lineup, something he has only done 134 times in his career, and while that seems a bit low, remember that this would be his first game off the disabled list so easing him back into the swing of things would be wise.
Saturday: Trevor Bauer vs Ian Kennedy
Making adjustments is something Trevor Bauer does almost religiously, and after his first start, I hope to see some (minor) changes in his approach as he looks to build on what was a good-not-great start against the Mariners. Seven strikeouts in five innings is fantastic, but as I wrote this week, Bauer needs to work on attacking and getting out of at-bats and limiting his pitch count to go further into games. Getting more length out of his No. 3, 4 and 5 starters is something manager Terry Francona needs to be attempting as much as possible. There isn’t much issue with Kluber or Carrasco going into the 7th or 8th inning, but getting six-plus innings from Bauer and Clevinger helps the team in more ways than one.
Lining up against Kennedy, who uses mostly a low 90’s fastball, the cutter, and curveball, will see the likely return of Zimmer and Chisenhall to the lineup, with the possibility of Brantley sitting so as to continue the easing of him into the lineup. If Brantley does sit, with Naquin being demoted, Rajai will likely continue seeing playing time even against right-handed pitchers, which would only further frustrate most of the Waiting For Next Year staff since Greg Allen could easily do all of the things Davis can do and provide better defense than Davis at any position in the outfield.
Sunday: Mike Clevinger vs Jason Hammel
Clevinger will come to the mound on Sunday against a team currently averaging 10% fewer strikeouts than last year’s pace. Yes, this is a small sample size, but over 142 plate appearances, the Royals have only struck out 14 times. Such a change in pace could be noise, it is only over four games after all,((Kansas City has been victim to a few postponements in the early going.)) especially considering the offseason departures of Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain, arguably the teams who best hitters from last year’s squad. Both players had more swing-and-miss than expected as both struck out over 100 times in 2017, but replacements Lucas Duda and Paulo Orlando have only struck out once combined. Here’s hoping Clevinger has more of that striking-out-Mike-Trout magic
Jason Hammel will try to earn his first win of the season facing the Tribe, a team he has a 5.10 ERA against for his career, on Sunday. The 35-year-old righty brings a 9.00 ERA this season to Progressive Field. Hammel has a different approach than the other two starters for the Royals this weekend, mostly working with a slider and a sinker as his two most used pitches. Among Indians hitters, this might spell trouble for someone like Zimmer, who chases pitches too often and has a whiff percentage of 26% on both hard and breaking pitches. Zimmer needs to improve greatly on his O Swing%, 38%, and his swinging strike percentage, 23.3%, so as to not be giving away at-bats before turning over the lineup.