Hilton Cleveland’s “Home Run” Package is your Indians Home Opener Spot
April 5, 2018Cleveland Indians Home Opener and Weekend Preview
April 6, 2018A steady dose of first-pitch offspeed offerings morphed Edwin Encarnacion’s 2017 profile. Edwin was attacking pitches in the strike zone less than when he was a Toronto Blue Jay, which surprisingly lent way to a rising walk rate. Baseball is a game of adjustments, however, and Edwin has adjusted in extraordinary fashion.
The homers were still there last year, 38 of them to be exact. Warning signs littered the rest of his profile, which given his age, shouldn’t come as a surprise. The strikeout rate has risen in each of his last four seasons, transforming from a stellar 10 percent rate in 2012 to a middling 19.9 percent in 2017. The peaks near 20 percent in 2016 and 2017 were a direct result of a consistent decline in contact rates, where Edwin whiffed nearly 20 percent more often. Additionally, he was not able to capitalize as often. As a guy who generates a ton of pull-side power, the sharp decline in pulled balls in play also raised some red flags last year.
So, while offering at eight percent fewer pitches in the strike zone, his walk rate spiked to a career-high level of 15.5 percent. This is a significant rise from previous years. Taking more strikes doesn’t make one inherently think of more walks, but it meant he was going deeper in counts more frequently. Perhaps it was an indication that his pitch recognition skills have diminished, as it was paired with a propensity to chase pitches out of the strike zone. He made contact on more of these pitches as well, leading to an overall less effective 2017 campaign.
The results would have been far more catastrophic, but Edwin has maintained his ability to punish the ball. An average exit velocity around 90 miles per hour has held strong over each of the last three seasons. This was especially encouraging considering the increased out of the zone contact rate.
Finding that sweet spot of swing selection and power is key, and a slow start in 2017 played a substantial role in mitigating Edwin’s overall outputs. He was simply just an average bat through May, then used an incredible June as a launching pad. Transferring that end of 2017 momentum, where he played the role of vintage Toronto Blue Jay Edwin Encarnacion, will be imperative to his 2018 success.
Early 2018 returns are quite positive, with two no doubt jacks and an improbable homer of the inside-the-park variety. While we do not have much to go on with only 25 plate appearances registered, it is encouraging that he has hit a couple balls over the 100 mile per hour threshold. In order for Edwin to get back to the guy he was pre-Indians, he will need to recoup some of his fly ball losses. Over 2016 and 2017, he hit four to five percent fewer fly balls than when he was at his peak. Also, a few more ground balls proved relatively detrimental.
Amidst the fly ball revolution, Edwin can take his contact authority and transfer it to flyball levels near fifty percent. If he were to do so, it would provide a substantial boost to an offense trying to find its way in the early season. This is not necessarily a needed shift, as he was still quite effective in 2017, but merely a way of unlocking the next level. It is easier said than done, of course, but a veteran slugger like Edwin, who offers virtually nothing in the way of defensive help, must find a way to maintain his value moving into his late thirties.