Les Levine is the best: While We’re Waiting
April 20, 2018Examining the best skill sets in the 2018 NFL Draft: Offense
April 20, 2018When evaluating players, as I do for fantasy baseball purposes, I have some (RE: a lot) of problems. I tend to fall in love with prospects, same as most fans and have a hard time backing off of younger players that don’t produce as quickly as others. Routinely I have conversations with one of my best friends, someone I have played fantasy baseball with for years and in numerous leagues1 about how I tend to go the prospect path pre-season and rank younger players with promise higher than those veterans with years of production under their belts for fear of watching them crash and burn. Per example: I ranked Matt Olson much higher than Miguel Cabrera in our AL-only league…only to see Miggy go in the first. The production from Olson compared to Miggy proves I was correct to think he was better, but I’m also really good at fantasy baseball so take that as you will.
Why bring this up? I had the opportunity to keep Bradley Zimmer in this AL-only league in the last round but chose to go a different path. Upon further review of his minor league stats and the 101 games he played in 2017, the gigundous strikeout rate and worries he might simply be a plus defender in center made me back off. There were going to be other players I could get value from that had either more promise or a higher level of security in their production. Fun fact: I kept Eddie Rosario in the same round…and have already traded him away.
I felt bummed when I moved away from Zimmer. When WFNY did their preview weeks, I took Zimmer with the expected topic of him being the bridge through the “windows”: He would mind the gap between the Lonnie Chisenhall-Jason Kipnis-Michael Brantley years and get help get the team to the Greg Allen-Bobby Bradley-Triston McKenzie-Francisco Mejia core. Upon further review, I saw a prospect that hadn’t panned out quite yet. I was unsure whether it be he was never quite as good as advertised or that he struggled once getting to the majors.
My feelings about Zimmer before, high-level defense, a possible 20HR/20SB candidate with a decent average and a bigger-than-you’d-like strikeout rate, were replaced with feelings of dread that he might not pan out. Had he already met his ceiling of being a two-win player based solely on his defense? At this rate he was never going to achieve the status others, myself included, had tossed on him. The start of the 2018 season only compiled onto these thoughts: he had a strikeout in every one of his first eight games, often multiple, and while his defense was on point, he looked lost at the plate, swinging and mostly everything. During Game 9 of the season, while tracking the game on my At Bat app, I noticed this troubling and/or cursed image:
I sent it to the WFNY Slack2 in horror with the caption “this pretty much encapsulates Zimmer’s year thus far”, and a plate appearance later, Zimmer had his first home run of the season and his first strikeout-less game of the season as well. From that game forward, Zimmer has looked like a different player.
Courtesy of FanGraphs
While this easily could be, and likely is, a small sample size of only six games, this is what a Zimmer ceiling could be. A wRC+ of 210 is impossibly high and Zimmer will strikeout more, just due to his nature as a player, but he will always carry a high BABIP due to his speed. The fact that Zimmer hasn’t walked much this year is worrisome (a whopping total of two this year in 49 plate appearances) but with regression, a higher walk total will take some of the impact of more strikeouts away.
Could Bradley Zimmer be turning a corner? It’s entirely possible. He has the pedigree to have this type of performance carry over for long stretches and there have been changes to his batted ball profile from last year that suggest this might last longer than a hot stretch. Zimmer’s hard-hit percentage is up 7% and soft contact down 8% with a 10% increase to center from a year ago. As young as Little League, they will tell you to center the ball to get out of a slump. Zimmer is attacking the middle of the field with line drives (up 11%) and those types of batted balls are what get hits. We might not see Zimmer hit 20 home runs, but as long as he can continue this streak of blistering the ball while providing plays like these in center, maybe the corner has been turned.