The Case for Greg Allen: why is Rajai Davis taking his spot?

Y’all know Jim Ford as jpftribe as an important member of the WFNY commentariat. Well, good ole Jimbo also has longform well within his wheelhouse, and the recent assignment of Rajai Davis to the Opening Day roster over Greg Allen forced him to make the time to type out his thoughts. Enjoy.

I got into an interesting Twitter debate last night and decided to do a little research to see whether some of the posits stand up to actual performance and stats.

My initial take was the Indians are essentially buying another year of Greg Allen’s service time for the cost of Rajai Davis, some $1.5M, which turns out to be closer to $1.75M. I was quite proud of my twitter Cleveland front office (CLEFO) skills, taking a posture that the front office is playing the long-term game in a small market and saving themselves a bundle down the road. This is the “Moneyball”, amirite?

Yeah, probably waving on peak innings of him as a defender for an age 31 season? Not sure that is the play…

— Mike Hattery (@snarkyhatman) March 24, 2018

“Yeah, probably waving on peak innings of him as a defender for an age 31 season? Not sure that is the play…”

Well, maybe not. So what could be the thinking for one Greg Allen in the real CLEFO?

Background on Allen

Allen was a sixth-round draft pick in 2014. He entered the system just four years ago at the age of 21. He spent 2014 -2016 progressing through the A-, A and A+ leagues, including 37 games at AA in 2016. While Allen was technically average age for the leagues he played in, as a respect he is actually a little above the curve.

“The average age for the Double-A leagues is just slightly over 24. For High-A it’s a hair under 23 and for Low-A ball it’s around 21-and-a-half. Most prospects are below the average age for their league, as the league ages are skewed higher by the non-prospects who spend multiple years there and fail to advance.”
https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-context-of-age-in-the-minor-leagues/

2016 was the breakout year for Allen. In 92 games of high A ball, his slash line was .298/.424/.402 with a wrc+ of 139. After being called up to AA, he continued that streak with .290/.399.441 and a wrc+ of 140, including 45 stolen bases and a gold glove center field performance.

So, exit 2016 and we have a sixth round prospect of average age, when most prospects are below average age, performing at a high level. Awesome. This performance earned him an invite to the MLB spring training camp in 2017. The same camp I spent a week immersed in all the fandom things possible.

We met Allen, for like five minutes. If first impressions are it, then this guy has a really bright future. Well-mannered, polite, articulate with no apparent ego. He was not overwhelmed being in big league camp, but seemed to know his place was to absorb and learn, not make the big league club out of camp. His on field performance reflected that. He was good. Very good in the outfield, but not as good as Zimmer. He got to some balls that a lot of fielders wouldn’t get to, but also didn’t get to balls he should have. I left that trip rooting hard for both of those guys, with my spidey-sense saying Zimmer was ready and Allen was not.

Allen was sent back to AA that spring. His 2017 season was marred by a wrist injury that limited him to 71 games. His slash line fell to .264/.344/.357 with a wrc+ of 96 in AA. However, a closer look at the number show pre-injury he had a great April, .290/.308/.308 with 7 walks and 8 stolen bases. Post injury he posted .308/.386/.408 with 10 stolen bases, 10 walks and 24 SO in his last 30 games. With an outfield so battered that Kipnis was playing center field, Allen received the September call up.

Pause…

Now might be a good time to highlight some important points. Allen has never had a AAA at bat. As of August of 2017, he had spent four seasons progressing through A- to AA. He’s the same age as Lindor, who spent five years in the minors. Jose Ramirez is a year older than Allen and is often cited for having blown through the minors at an accelerated pace. And Jose spent parts of five seasons in the minors, including 104 games at AAA.

But those were elite prospects drafted young, not fair you say? Seven players were drafted in front of Allen in 2014. Only one, Zimmer, is on a big league roster. Only two players from the 2013 draft class have seen MLB action, Clint Frazier and Kyle Crockett. 2012? – Tyler Naquin is it.

Resume….

So Allen tore it up in September, right? Well, not really. Eight hits in 39 plate appearances over 25 games. Seven times he was used as a pinch runner/hitter. He stole one base. He hit his first MLB HR. His defense was good, not spectacular, certainly not Gold Glove level. His final slash line was .229/.282/.343 with a wRC+ of 63. He pretty much played like a high performing AA call up with a good glove.

Mr. Game 7 HR

Now, let’s look at Rajai. At 37 years old, he is 7-11 years past the average MLB peak age.
https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2017/05/08/what-age-do-baseball-players-peak/

A quick scan of Rajai’s career WAR shows his 2009 peak 3.4 WAR season. His next best season? In 2016 with your Cleveland Indians he contributed 1.9 WAR. In fact, 2013-2016 was his best career WAR stretch where he accumulated 6.1 WAR never falling below a 1.1 WAR per season. But in 2017, the wheels apparently came off the cart; 0.0 WAR, .235/.295/.348 wRC+ of 72. Still, the Red Sox thought enough of his 29 stolen bases to carry him on their September roster after an injury to Jackie Bradley Jr. Also important to note here, the Indians paid Rajai $6M for his 1.9 WAR 2016 season and passed on doing the same in 2017.

2017 was a blip you say? There’s valid points on both sides of this.

“Hitters peak in batting and slugging average at 28 while continuing to improve in their home-run hitting and walking abilities until 30 and 32, respectively. Home runs rising beyond the peak for doubles and triples indicates that foot-speed on the basepaths fades before hitting power.”
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/

Rajai’s peak seasons for doubles was 2009/2010 where he hit 27/28 respectively. In 2014 he hit 27 and in 2016 he hit 23. His peak HR season, 2016 – 12, about 7 HR over his career average.

The algo’s do not like his chances either. Zips and Steamer project -0.1 WAR with Rajai lucky to clip a .240 BA. He has not had a great spring either slashing .222/.263/.250, 4 SB and 9 SO in 14 games.

The upside? Speed. According to Statcast, at age 36, Rajai was still the 11th fastest player in MLB. With the correct route, there are only 10 other major leaguers that can get to more balls than Rajai. And one of them is Bradley Zimmer.

In 2013, https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/1/11/3863664/stolen-bases-players-leaders-peaked-later-years looked at players that stole 20+ bases in their 30’s. Rajai put himself on this list last year and it is entirely possible he can repeat in 2018.

Rank Name Year SB Age
T1 Paul O’Neill 2001 22 38
T1 Pete Rose 1979 20 38
T3 Mark McLemore 2001 39 36
T3 Randy Velarde 1999 24 36
T3 Jim Gantner 1989 20 36

But the most important aspect of his 2018 potential will be how he is used. Looking at his 2016/2017 splits points out some interesting opportunities.

Rajai is a pull hitter. His wRC+ when he pulls the ball was 179/137 in 16/17.
In 2017 against the shift his wRC+ was 25. With no shift, it was 98.
Rajai doesn’t like breaking pitches, and in 2017 the bottom fell out. His career wRC+ on curveballs is 58. In 2017, it plummeted to -70. Sliders are the same story, 72 / 33 respectively.

Rajai should not hit leadoff. In 220 PA’s as the leadoff hitter in 2017, he hit .218 with 16 BB and 58 SO. Move him down to the bottom of the order, (7,8,9) and in 93 AB’s he hit .290 with 8 BB and 18 SO’s. Why? See breaking pitches above. Back end of the order means less exposure to front line starters with multiple breaking pitches. Another factor is the shift. The leadoff spot guarantees he will see the shift to open the game. This is also a premise to utilize him as a pinch hitter. Get him to the plate with runners on, avoid the shift and put pressure on pitchers to throw heat.

Finally, Rajai’s contract gives a hint at what the Tribe’s brass expect. $1.75M is market rate for 0.1 to 0.3 WAR. For a guy who turned in 1.9 WAR on this same club just two seasons ago, it isn’t crazy to think there is some potential upside here. Minimize his exposure to breaking pitches, put him in situations where he can pull the ball and take advantage of his speed in the field and on the bases. Rajai looks like a great situational / late inning replacement for Zimmer. Platoon? Not against anyone with above average breaking stuff. LF? To give Brantley a rest facing fastball pitchers, sure.

Summary

The case for Allen is to get AAA playing time. He needs it. For the first time in his pro career, he will be below average age of his peers. How he performs in CBus will provide some insight into his future upside. Adjusting to AAA pitching will help him adjust to MLB pitching, when the time comes. Could he help the big league club now? Of course. Could he contribute more than Rajai? Perhaps. But at what expense to his development if 30% or more of his appearances come as a pinch substitution.

We can debate whether Rajai is the right choice for the 2018 Indians outfield. I haven’t met a fan yet who was happy with this offseason and the lack of moves. But if the choice is Rajai or Allen, a case can be made that the Indians have made the right one. For now.