They’re Coming Home: While We’re Waiting
February 21, 2018I love these games! Catching up on the Cavs and Olympics – The Nail in the Coffin, Episode 109
February 22, 2018The NBA returns to action tonight, after what was plausibly a forever-long break. OK, it was only a week, but to diehard fans hungry for professional basketball, it was an eternity.
The Cleveland Cavaliers – rested, with momentum, with half of an entirely new rotation – will return to action at home The Q against a long-time rival, the Washington Wizards. The matchup provides a good excuse for forecasting ahead toward the 2017-18 playoffs.
The NBA’s All-Star Break has never been the exact “mid-way point” of the season. In practice, the break represents more of the 70-percent mark of the regular season schedule. The Cavs currently sit 34-22, third in the Eastern Conference. They’re only a game-and-a-half ahead of the fourth-place Wizards, at 33-24. Both teams are missing All-Stars (John Wall and Kevin Love) who suffered late January injuries that sidelined each playmaker for six-to-eight weeks.
For historical context, here’s how LeBron James’ teams have finished the regular season over the last 12 seasons of his career (all consecutive playoff appearances and first-round series victories):
- 2016-17: 51-31 record, 2nd-place, sweep 7th-place Indiana Pacers (lose in NBA Finals to Golden State Warriors)
- 2015-16: 57-25 record, 1st-place, sweep 8th-place Detroit Pistons (win in NBA Finals over Golden State Warriors)
- 2014-15: 53-29 record, 2nd-place, sweep 7th-place Boston Celtics (lose in NBA Finals to Golden State Warriors)
- 2013-14: 54-28 record, 2nd-place, sweep 7th-place Charlotte Bobcats (lose in NBA Finals to San Antonio Spurs)
- 2012-13: 66-16 record, 1st-place, sweep 8th-place Milwaukee Bucks (win in NBA Finals over San Antonio Spurs)
- 2011-12: 46-20 record (adj. 57-15), 2nd-place, win in five vs. 7th-place New York Knicks (win in NBA Finals over Oklahoma City Thunder)
- 2010-11: 58-24 record, 2nd-place, win in five vs. 7th-place Philadelphia 76ers (lose in NBA Finals to Dallas Mavericks)
- 2009-10: 61-21 record, 1st-place, win in five vs. 8th-place Chicago Bulls (lose in East Semis to Boston Celtics)
- 2008-09: 66-16 record, 1st-place, sweep 8th-place Detroit Pistons (lose in East Finals to Orlando Magic)
- 2007-08: 45-37 record, 4th-place, win in six vs. 5th-place Washington Wizards (lose in East Semis to Boston Celtics)
- 2006-07: 50-32 record, 2nd-place, sweep 7th-place Washington Wizards (lose in NBA Finals to San Antonio Spurs)
- 2005-06: 50-32 record, 4th-place, win in six vs. 5th-Washington Wizards (lose in East Semis to Detroit Pistons)
It’s wild to consider – among all the other incredible LeBron James achievements – that he’s gone nine consecutive seasons with top-2 Eastern Conference regular season finishes and only three total first-round defeats. Over these last nine seasons, LeBron’s teams have repeated first-round opponents only once.
In fact, LeBron’s last first-round loss at all was Game 4 against the New York Knicks on May 6, 2012. Carmelo Anthony scored 41 points in that game. New York’s other players that day were J.R. Smith, Amar’e Stoudemire, Tyson Chandler, Baron Davis, Mike Bibby, Landry Fields, Steve Novak, Josh Harrellson and Jared Jeffries.
LeBron’s Eastern Conference playoff dominance has been historical. Which makes us all wonder … who will be the next victim this coming mid-April? It seems worthwhile to check out what the major projection systems are saying for how the rest of the NBA regular season will shake out.
I checked out Basketball-Reference.com, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, FiveThirtyEight.com and TeamRankings.com for some insights. I’ve recapped each team’s outlook down below:
- Toronto Raptors, 41-16, +8.5 differential: The Raptors set franchise records in back-to-back-to-back seasons recently with 48, 49 and 56 wins, before following it up with only 51 wins last year. This year’s team is on pace for another new record of 59 victories. Securing a No. 1 or No. 2 seed seems like a certainty for this squad, even if they lay off the gas a bit down the stretch.
- Boston Celtics, 40-19 (2.0 GB), +3.5 differential: After starting 22-4, the Celtics have hit a wall since (only 18-15 since Dec. 8; only 6-9 since Jan. 16). They’re missing Marcus Smart’s defense. They’re struggling to generate legitimate offense night in and night out. And yet, they’re still a very good regular season team. It may prove too difficult for the Cavs to make up ground and for LeBron to secure a 10th-straight top-2 seed.
- Cleveland Cavaliers, 34-22 (6.5 GB), +0.2 differential: The Cavs were on a 7-14 stretch just recently, from Dec. 19 through Feb. 6, where they were out-scored by their opponents by 7.6 points per game. That hampers their playoff probabilities everywhere, as they have a point-differential of a near-.500 club. Even if the newcomers provide a benefit, it’d require a big-time run to surpass the two teams ahead.
- Washington Wizards, 33-24 (8.0 GB), +1.9 differential: The Wizards are feuding. Their ceiling seems limited. The No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup seems so totally fitting for this team. They have the Eastern Conference’s most difficult remaining schedule, which may mean a fifth seed is more likely. Whether they can advance beyond that first-round may dictate some long-term moves for the franchise.
- Indiana Pacers, 33-25 (8.5 GB), +1.3 differential: Despite trading Paul George to Oklahoma City, the Pacers have been impressively competitive, thanks to first-time All-Star Victor Oladipo and a solid stable of regulars. They’ve got the East’s third-most difficult remaining schedule (behind Washington and Atlanta), so some troubles may be in their future. But a surprise playoff appearance seems quite likely, no matter what.
- Milwaukee Bucks, 32-25 (9.0 GB), 0.0 differential: The Bucks are 9-3 under new interim head coach Joe Prunty. They’re certainly a club that most top contenders won’t want to face in the first round, thanks to bourgeoning superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Could he help spark a major upset? Or, if the stars align and lead to a first-round matchup, could the Bucks shock the world into the East Finals? Anything seems possible now and in the future with the Greek Freak.
- Philadelphia 76ers, 30-25 (10.0 GB), +2.0 differential: Philadelphia – winners of five straight – has the NBA’s easiest remaining schedule. They have four remaining games against the Hornets, three against the Nets, two against the Hawks, two against the Magic, and one each against Dallas and Memphis. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are fast-improving stars and the projection sites like Philly jumping into a top-5 playoff spot.
- Miami Heat, 30-28 (11.5 GB), -0.9 differential: After last season’s 30-11 second-half (albeit 41-41 overall record), this season’s .500 effort feels like somewhat of a disappointment for an increasingly expensive roster. Given Philly’s easy remaining schedule, the battle will likely be on between Miami and Detroit for the East’s final playoff spot. Miami’s got a game-and-a-half head start and an easier schedule. Will that be enough?
- Detroit Pistons, 28-29 (13.0 GB), -0.1 differential: Blake Griffin provides a huge boost for Detroit’s playoff hopes. But a rough loss to the Hawks before the break and the continued absence of Reggie Jackson highlight how Blake’s arrival might not save everything just yet. In a playoff series, Griffin’s presence still could be a huge factor against one of the East’s top squads.
It seems most likely the Cavs will finish at the No. 3 seed. If all goes smashingly well, it’s plausible they could jump up to No. 2 and continues LeBron’s streak. Some likely first-round opponents thus are Washington, Indiana, Milwaukee and Philadelphia. Due to star power, Milwaukee seems like one team the Cavs wouldn’t want to face. Beyond that? Could certainly be another sweep on the horizon for LeBron in late April yet again.