Cleveland Indians Spring Training Notebook

Every spring a few different stories grow and reflect the context of the team as well as potentially foreshadowing the upcoming season. While spring training data is largely poor to draw conclusions from there are a few pieces of the Arizona experience worth monitoring, strikeout percentage adjustments stabilize the most quickly so large changes in that area for hitters and pitchers is worth tracking, mechanical or strategic adjustments and player health.

Now, strikeout percentage shifts for players will not stabilize till around 60 plate appearances, thus that information does not become useful until the end of spring. Most important and potentially interesting fodder are players making mechanical or approach adjustments.

One interesting topic at the moment is Jason Kipnis, his two home run game, and three home runs just a few games has Indians fans full of hubris regarding a Kipnis bounce back season. Expecting a bounce back is reasonable based on prior results but this spring does not provide any distinguishable basis other than Kipnis punishing two middle-middle hangers.

Courtesy of MLB Gameday

Courtesy of MLB Gameday

Kipnis essentially saw six pitches in his nitro zone on Tuesday and hit two of them out of the ballpark.  Raking in spring is certainly better than not raking, but to reiterate, these dingers on their own do little to establish any basis for optimism.

However, it does require a deeper dive into Kipnis’ shifting profile. This off-season we discussed Kipnis shifting batted ball profile:

Now, the question for a team is the probability that Kipnis could post between 5-8 WAR over the next two season to make this a worthwhile gamble. Kipnis value is largely carried by offense with a career wRC+ of 109, and value as a baserunner. His wRC+ of 82 in 2017 was a huge delineation from his mean performance and was largely the consequence of a mammoth BABIP decline. Kipnis xBABIP suggests that we should expect some small positive regression but his overall contact quality simply took a downturn in 2017. Two pieces spiked, Kipnis’ soft ball hite rate which was a career high and his infield fly ball percentage which nearly doubled his career average. For Kipnis to post another plus offensive season he simply has to reduce soft contact back to previous levels.

Perhaps more interesting about Kipnis, is that his soft hit rate collapse and BABIP issues may have evolved from a failed launch angle adjustment. Kipnis increased his fly ball percentage by 11 percent, a massive jump which could likely only be the product of a mechanical adjustment in point of contact. While fly balls can increase ISO, shifting too far up the degree of launch angle create popups and soft outs which radically decrease BABIP. It appears that Kipnis shifted too far in the direction of fly balls and diminished his line drive frequency.

One of the questions facing Kipnis is whether he can optimize his launch angle adjustments, which with his traditional average exit velocity may suggest a different optimal launch angle compared to those who hit the ball a tad harder as baseball physicist Alan Nathan has discussed in detail:

While I generally agree with you, let me posit the following: If you only have "warning track power", meaning EV too low to consistently hit HR, then a lowish LA is preferable. Better to hit a single than flying out.

— Alan Nathan (@pobguy) January 10, 2018

Kipnis’ average LD/FB exit velocity is 91.5 a roughly league average rate, represented above in the dark green line is the exit velocity range. Demonstrating that launch angles between 6-19 degrees is probably ideal. Of course, if his average exit velocity surges that could shift optimal launch angle.

Monitoring Kipnis’ offensive adjustments over the course of the season will be very interesting, and reversion to a lower launch angle is probably best for a Kipnis rebound.

The Mike Napoli:

As Terry Francona emphasized when discussing the Napoli spring training invite signing, this is purely a showcase for an old friend. This is the sort of opportunity, relationship building deal that creates a very favorable image of the Indians organization throughout Major League Baseball. As minor league bullpen signing Matt Belisle mentioned:

Matt Belisle on signing with the #Indians: “Everything inside me, my gut was just calling to this place. This organization is now heralded and has been for quite some time as one of the great places to be.”

— Chris AssenheimerC-T (@CAwesomeheimer) February 25, 2018

The reality for Mike Napoli is bleak, this is probably his last stand as the warts of age that reared their ugly head in late 2016 became more extreme in 2017. Napoli struck out 33% a rate which is almost unsustainable as a bat first player unless you are carrying an elite isolated power. Napoli carried an OPS of .713 which is just not good enough for a player at a bat first position with absolutely no defensive value.

The Indians are providing Napoli with a delightful favor but there is little expectation that Napoli can latch on, as is easily demonstrated by the fact that this was Napoli’s only opportunity.

Richie Shaffer:

Shaffer is not expected to be anything but a mediocre defender and his history is predominantly in the infield but for a team searching for right-handed hitting corner outfield options, Shaffer is worth monitoring. Shaffer is another launch angle love child who has been crushing baseballs for the last year plus.  Shaffer has significant strikeout issues but also has become a plus power bat which if he can demonstrate playable defense, becomes interesting for a team waiting on Brandon Guyer to become interesting, and gambling on Rajai Davis or Melvin Upton to carry the thin side of the platoon.