Jason Kipnis and Tyler Naquin Boomerang Effect: While We’re Waiting

Being a fan employs a natural level of irrational affection or disdain towards athletes and teams. When this crosses over into baseball fanhood, we tend to elevate athletes that meet certain criteria: hustle, swagger, and charisma. Tyler Naquin and Jason Kipnis collectively checked these boxes and ascended quickly. Kipnis’ Fenway debut sparked fan adulation only further amplified by Manny Acta’s ‘Dirtbag’ moniker. Naquin hit all the right notes on the “Gets Us” meter following an improbable walk-off inside-the-park-homerun as he flashed the now infamous hand gesture telling the Rock-n-Roll Hall of Fame city to ‘Rock On.’ The two of them also produced immediate results causing initial collective fan opinion of them to skyrocket.

Each player saw their value become quickly distorted; reaching points of excessive praise. As a natural response to the over-valuation of a player, human nature kicks in and we pick them apart to the point that their collective skill sets tend to be marginalized and undervalued. The boomerang effect has left us with two guys who fans are generally down on and with good reason to an extent.

Tyler Naquin

Tyler Naquin’s 2016 campaign was incredible, particularly in the first half. For much of it, he was an integral cog in the soon-to-be American League champion Indians’ offense. Over that 365 plate appearance sample size, he was basically Ryan Braun. A home run every 26 plate appearances. An OPS just shy of 0.900. A slot in the wRC+ standings directly behind Edwin Encarnacion and Yoenis Cespedes. The perception of his value among Indians fans was without a doubt merited if we’re operating solely on a production basis.

The elephant in the room, however, was always present. The strikeout rate was bordering on Adam Dunn levels, breaching the thirty percent threshold. His batting average on balls in play of 0.411 was tops in Major League Baseball. DJ LeMahieu, who plays his home games in hitter heaven at Coors Field, was second at 0.388. If BABIP isn’t your flavor, expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) versus actual weighted on-base average (wOBA) offers the most insightful viewpoint into how much of a batter’s success was aided by luck. Naquin’s xwOBA mark of 0.330 was very pedestrian, indicating that he should have likely been around a league average hitter. Conversely, the actual results were extraordinary, tallying a wOBA of 0.380. Regressions were expected, providing an argument point to take away from Naquin’s success.

A 40 plate appearance 2017 season later, we are now at a point where the valuation pendulum may have tilted back to the undervaluation side. Despite raking in Columbus last year, he is something of an afterthought in the messy 2018 Indians outfield. There are still things to love about Naquin’s profile. While he is just about average on the fly ball plus line drive spectrum, his 90.1 miles per hour average exit velocity from 2016 is about four miles per hour above league average. It stands to reason that a few more balls in the air would pave the way to sustained success at the dish.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

From a launch angle perspective, there is more hope. In the 2016 graphic above, a healthy portion of his batted balls were in areas of distress, predominantly around the ten-degree point. This leads to inefficient results, and a steady dose of ground balls. Lacking more sufficient launch angle data due to most of his 2017 being spent in the minor leagues, we are forced to examine other areas to identify how his skills have progressed. A career low 41.5 percent ground ball percentage in Columbus is telling in that he likely shifted that launch angle grouping up just a tad. If he can find a way to get that ground ball percentage under forty, the Indians would reap the rewards.

Jason Kipnis

The Kipnis story is far different than Naquin’s, but similar in the sense that fans have generally soured on him, thanks to injuries galore in 2017. Prior to the injury season, Kipnis had accumulated at least 4.5 wins above replacement in three of four seasons. He compiled two great seasons after his other year of injury, 2014, so we know he can return to form. The worry is simple: Age and health.

Courtesy of Fangraphs

During the first week of the 2018 season, Kipnis will turn 31. As you can see on the aging curve graphic, though the data is a bit outdated, that 29 to 33-year-old window is the first significant downturn. Coupling that with the injuries that nagged him in 2017 makes for a compelling case for concern. An argument can be made, however, that Kipnis is still close to a facsimile of his 2016 self.

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

The issues started in contact authority. An average exit velocity of 86.2 miles per hour, compared to marks that hovered in the 89 miles per hour range at his peak. That three miles per hour drop-off could be attributed to aging, but I think it’s likelier that most it can be attributed to health. That drop manifested itself in other areas, as well. A career low 0.256 batting average on balls in play. A xwOBA that cratered from around 0.350 to 0.302. The domino effect took full control of his season. Pay close attention to his contact authority in the early stages of 2018 to see which Kipnis is present.

Most of the argument for Kipnis is founded against how far public opinion has fallen. The Indians (allegedly) discussed whisking him off to the New York Mets for nothing, after all.  Projections see him as a two WAR player still, which can help a contender as an average starter, but the potential for more is still present. Three plus WAR is attainable, especially if health leads to better contact authority.

The Boomerang Effect

We value athletes until we don’t. And when we don’t, we really don’t. This is what has become of Tyler Naquin and Jason Kipnis causing us to undervalue two players who were once overvalued by a country mile. Our reactionary predispositions wreak havoc on our ability to objectively evaluate players, but both of these Tribesmen can have a positive effect on the 2018 team.