Welcome back to another week of fantasy football projections from that guy who neglects the rest of his life for fantasy football. If you played my lines last week, you had a pretty solid day. The 1:00 only lines and the all day slate hit quintuple ups, while the 4:05 slate missed for the first time all year. Adam Thielen, Jacoby Brissett, and the Lions defense came up big to carry the line. Latavius Murray stole Jerick McKinnon’s touchdown, but we still lived to see the cash line.
This week, I will once again be doing the 1:00 p.m. only, main slate, and the 4:00 p.m. only sets.
QB – Drew Brees – Brees has not been the same consistent fantasy play as he has been in years past. He hasn’t thrown for a touchdown in two of the last three weeks, and he has scored 15 points or less four times this year. However, with that being said, Brees is going up against a Washington defense that has allowed three or more touchdowns in four of their last five games, and giving up over 18 fantasy points to QB’s this year. Case Keenum threw all over the Redskins’ defense last week, just like Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz the weeks before him. I expect a big day from Brees, throwing for three TD’s and hopefully breaking the 300 yard mark.
RB – Jerick McKinnon – McKinnon put up a five point dud last week. But that doesn’t mean I don’t trust him! The Vikings attacked through the air last week in Washington, and the two goal line rushing TD’s went to other running backs. Playing against the 24th ranked run defense, and a Rams team that allows over 25 fantasy points to running backs, I like McKinnon’s chances to get 12-13 points and meet value for the day, especially on a day where the top backs are over priced.
RB – Jamaal Williams – Williams is going to be pretty high owned today. With Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones out for today’s contest, Williams will have a big load to carry for the Packers’ offense. At just $5600, if Williams can find the end zone and rush for 50 yards, he will be worth his price. Williams will be going up against a Ravens defense that has allowed the third most rushing yards in football. With Brett Hundley still at QB against the second ranked Ravens pass defense, I expect Williams seeing plenty of action.
WR – Michael Thomas – Thomas is Brees’ go to guy, averaging just under 10 targets per game this year. Thomas will be facing a Redskins secondary that has allowed numerous big games to wide receivers this year. Playing at home in the dome, if Thomas gets his normal dosage of targets, he is in for a big day against the Redskins.
WR – Jarvis Landry – Even with Jay Cutler as his QB, Landry is still a great fantasy option, especially in cash games. Landry has found the end zone each of the last two games, and five of the last six weeks. With Landry receiving just under 11 targets and seven catches per grame, he is great for PPR formats. The Dolphins don’t throw the ball deep a lot, so Landry’s production lies heavily on whether or not he finds the end zone, something he has been doing regularly. Going up against a Tampa Bay defense that has grown accustomed to giving up a bunch of points, Landry could easily find his way to the end zone once again today.
WR – Larry Fitzgerald – Will Larry Fitzgerald ever not be productive? No matter who is playing QB for him, he always finds a way to produce. Even with Drew Stanton throwing him the ball last week, Fitzgerald still caught 10 of 14 targets for 113 yards. The only knock on Fitz this year has been his limited touchdown’s. Fitzgerald is coming off a long week off after a Thursday night game and will be facing a Texans defense that has been getting shredded through the air, so Fitz has a great match-up.
TE – Travis Kelce – Kelce is averaging over 13 fantasy points per game out of the tight end position this year, which is incredible. Going up against the New York Giants, a defense that allows more fantasy points to tight ends than any other team in the league, including 10 TD’s allowed, Kelce should have a huge day. Kelce regularly sees double digit targets, and with as often as the Chiefs offense will be on the field today, he should see plenty of balls come his way.
K – Greg Zuerlin – Just like last week, it is absolutely worth paying up at the kicker spot for Zuerlin this week. Zuerlin has had three straight 17 point games. With the match-ups and pricing for running backs this week, it was an easy choice to pay up for Zuerlin. With the Rams offense scoring points at will, Zuerlin should see plenty of opportunities to get on the board.
DEF – Detroit – I picked the Lions last week against the Browns, and I’m doing it again this week against the Chicago Bears. Even while allowing 24 points to the Browns, the Lions were able to score 14 fantasy points, including forcing and recovering a fumble for a touchdown. The Lions will face the worst passing attack in football this week, and should hold their ground in terms of points allowed. If the Lions can get ahead early and make Trubisky throw, they could be in for a big day of sacks and turnovers.
4:00 p.m. only
QB – Tom Brady – Brady is never a bad option to pick at QB. On a slate where the only other viable option is Derek Carr, Brady was an easy choice. Brady is virtually a lock for multiple touchdowns and at least 250 yards this week. I would be surprised to see Brady not get at least 18 fantasy points, and it would not surprise me to see him get around 25.
RB – LeSean McCoy – This is a very weak WR slate, so it’s completely worth it to spend up at running back. With the Bills benching Tyrod Taylor for rookie QB Nate Peterman, McCoy should see plenty of touches against the NFL’s worst ranked rush defense in the Los Angeles Chargers. While McCoy has been pretty hit or miss this year, he should hit value based off of the touches he’s going to receive. I would imagine the Bills run the ball over 20 times, and I expect to see a rookie QB check down a lot to his safety valve in McCoy.
RB – Melvin Gordon – Gordon has been an incredibly consistent play this year, even with duds in two of his last three games. McCoy has scored at least 14 points in six games, and has scored over 30 points twice. The Chargers will be seeing the Bills’ 26th ranked defense, and after a heart breaking loss last week, I would expect to see the Chargers try to control the game from the get go by giving it to their best guy in Gordon. If Gordon can see his usual 17 carries and six to eight targets, he should score well in to the teens again.
WR – Brandin Cooks – Cooks hasn’t provided the production everyone expected this year, but with Chris Hogan out again, and Danny Amendola questionable, Cooks should see plenty of targets. Cooks was on the field for 68 of 70 plays last week, seeing 11 targets. With Tom Brady having to throw his touchdowns to somebody, Cooks has potential for a monster day. Cooks should have a pretty high floor today, and I think he’s a safe bet to get into double digit points.
WR – Demaryius Thomas – Taking anyone from the Broncos offense seems kind of crazy, because they can’t score. However, with as quick as the Broncos go down, they have to throw the ball a lot. Thomas has seen an average of 10 targets per game the last five weeks, and he’s managed to get into the end zone the last two weeks. In such a weak WR slate, Thomas for $6700 is a deal I can’t pass up.
WR – Emmanual Sanders – Another Bronco! Same story as above with Thomas. Sanders is seeing nine targets per game the last five weeks, and last week he racked up 137 yards on six catches. Volume is what we are looking for on cash slates, and if Thomas and Sanders are seeing 25 targets between them, some type of production has to come out of that. Their total salary is $13,000, so we need about 26 points total from them to make value. If one of them can catch a deep ball for a TD, they will be halfway home.
TE – Jared Cook – Jared Cook has been on fire the last three weeks. He’s put up over 100 yards at the tight end position in two of those weeks. Cook is seeing plenty of action, so if he can just find the end zone for the first time since September 24th, he will easily make value at his $5600 price. If the Patriots can do as expected and go up early against the Raiders, the ball will be in the air early and often for Oakland, which will benefit Cook greatly.
K – Brandon McManus – McManus attempted three field goals again last week, the fifth time he’s done that in his last six games. With the Broncos inability to put the ball in the end zone, that leaves plenty of attempts for McManus. The Bengals are giving up just under 10 fantasy points per game to kickers, and with the game being played in Denver, McManus should have some chances to put the ball through the uprights, hopefully from 50+ yards.
DEF – New England – The Patriots league worst defense is a thing of the past. They have given up two touchdowns of less in five straight games, racking up double digit fantasy points in three of those. Not too many defense stick out on this slate, and since I’m playing three Broncos, I’m electing to go with the Patriots defense over the Bengals at the same price.
As you could imagine, my main slate is just a combination of my 1:00 line and my 4:00 line.
QB – Drew Brees
RB – LeSean McCoy
RB – Jamaal Williams
WR – Larry Fitzgerald
WR – Jarvis Landry
WR – Demaryius Thoams
TE – Travis Kelce
K – Greg Zuerlin
Def – Detroit Lions
If you choose to play these, the best of luck to you – let’s hit quintuples again. If you choose not to, don’t ever come back. Ever. Even if there’s a fire.