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May 23, 2017As starting pitcher Josh Tomlin walked to the mound in the bottom of the seventh inning, every fan of the Cleveland Indians knew the game was lost. Tomlin had pitched as best he can to that point only allow two runs though he needed some fortunate defensive assistance in the sixth as the Cincinnati Reds began the dreaded Third Time Through the Order. The inevitable happened in the seventh as the Reds kept obtaining good contact, and Tomlin hurt himself with a throwing error on a bunt. The three runs scored would be more than enough insurance as the Reds won the first 2017 Battle of Ohio game, 5-1.
On the plus side, that sixth inning defensive assitance was obtained through the Indians first five-star catch of the year according to Statcast. No one is surprised that it was Carlos Santana in right field making the catch and assist for the double play. Wait, what?
What happens when Kluber is activated?
When Cleveland Indians starter Corey Kluber went onto the 10-Day DL, it was obvious that Mike Clevinger would only temporarily replace him in the rotation. Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer, and Josh Tomlin had each earned their position in MLB with quality starts over the course of several seasons. Each has shown inconsistencies and issues with health (Carrasco) or performance (everyone else) in 2017, which has opened the door to question if Clevinger’s brilliant performance against the AL-best Houston Astros (7 IP, 0 R, 2 H , 2 BB, 8 SO) has earned himself a chance to remain in Cleveland when Kluber returns.
WFNY’s Mike Hattery and I have agreed about Clevinger’s arsenal, issues, and performance coming into the 2017 season, but we have vehemently disagreed upon his projections for his career. So, let’s start the discussion with Clevinger. Mike, what have you seen from Clevinger in 2017 and has it swayed you at all about his future possibilities (or likelihoods)?
Mike Hattery: The Astros start was the first that was really positive to me. In Kansas City and his other start the command/control issues were still a dynamic problem. I still somewhat doubt that he can run a walk rate below 3.5 per nine which limits his ceiling but the Houston start was a giant leap in the right direction. The biggest question to me is how long Josh Tomlin gets a pass and stays in the rotation. Do you have any Tomlin optimism?
Michael Bode: Fantastic that you hit upon a walk rate of 3.5 per nine innings because that is directly between what Trevor Bauer (3.3) and Danny Salazar (4.1) did in 2016. If Clevinger achieves that type of rate, then it his strikeout rate will be the defining quotient between whether he is a success or failure. The 2016 strikeout rates of Salazar (10.6) and Bauer (8.0) demonstrated the difference in effectiveness between an All-Star and back end rotation pitcher. Clevinger’s strikeout rate has risen in 2017 (9.9) from 2016 (8.5) but his walk rate has remained relatively static due to those command issues you noted in his previous starts (1.72 strikeout to walk ratio both years). If he can come close to consistently commanding as he did on Sunday, then great excitement will abound. He has a long way to go to prove such.
Tomlin receives a pass often due to the limited expectations surrounding him. He is a fifth rotation starter whose numbers (standard and peripheral) show that he is a fifth rotation starter (ERA above 4.0 in every MLB season except 2015, FIP above 4.0 in every MLB season). His age (32 years old), build (6-foot-1, 190 pounds), and handedness (right-handed) are all reasons to assume that his performance will either stagnate (yes, please) or worsen (please, no). Outside expectations, Tomlin is beloved due to his elite control. Watching Bauer and Salazar battle with the strike zone makes it even more pleasing to the eye to observe our Little Cowboy’s MLB-best (in 2016) walk rate despite his obvious shortcomings.
I expect Tomlin to be who Tomlin has always been. He’s going to be a decent guy to have at the back end of the rotation who will oscillate between having good outings and getting absolutely lit up.
That brings us to my big idea. We both agree that only select pitchers should ever see a lineup the Third Time Through the Order. Given that Bauer, Salazar, and Clevinger each have higher ceilings, what do you think about sending Tomlin to the bullpen with the specific role of spelling these three pitchers after they make it two times through an order?
Note: previously discussed at WFNY by Dan Harrington as “the piggyback” but now with a specific use-case.
Hattery: I love the piggyback concept and think this Indians team may be an ideal implementer. Interestingly, in a piggyback I would simply give Tomlin the first three innings and allow someone with better stuff to be the anchor piggyback guy.
Tomlin generally can clear the first time through with a heavy mix and could lean on his curveball more a la the 2016 playoffs. I would piggyback him with a high velo guy and then piggyback the other two with someone like Ryan Merritt. Could go matchup with your righthanded or lefthanded piggyback to further optimize as well as large velo gaps.
Clevinger-Merritt as piggy-backers is the route I would take, does that sound crazy?
Bode: You hit on one of the reasons I like Tomlin as the piggyback. Bauer, Salazar, and Clevinger are each high velocity guys, so Tomlin pairs with any of them to create a more drastic effect on hitters’ timing. I also trust Tomlin the most as the veteran to be able to transition back into the main rotation if an injury forces the Tribe’s hand. Adding to the age effect, Salazar is the most likely to achieve Kluber/Carrasco status of being allowed to see the third time through, but Bauer and Clevinger should be allowed on certain occasions when their stuff is on point (just with a quick hook).
Then, you take it a step further introducing Merritt into the equation. I worry that hitters will adjust to his limited profile, but he could still be a sneaky match up play against some line ups.1 The Columbus Clippers will be mad (taking two of their starters out of play), but the Indians are contending for the World Series here.
OK, so we solved the Indians problem of figuring out how to handle Kluber’s activation and revolutionized bullpen usage. A nice day’s work.
- Plus, Tribe fans can help him out if he ever has a baby shower. [↩]
29 Comments
As my esteemed colleague Steve has pointed out to me on numerous occasions, a club typically goes thru 7-10 starters throughout a season.
Kluber has yet to pitch a rehab game. June 13th starts 23 consecutive games with 2 double headers. All star break and then 6 weeks until roster expansion.
IF Kluber can make his May 30th slot, I’d look for Clevinger to be optioned down to keep stretched out with three off days in early June, then back up in time for the DH’s.
Tomlin and Bauer are what they are. Salazar is the one to watch. Something different is going on there.
Bauer is still only in his age 26 season. He is not necessarily who he is quite yet. Take a look at Kluber & Carrasco in that age season. He might be, it’s just the pitcher development plane is quite long.
I agree with you that we’ll need more starters, or find a way to lessen the load on the ones we have. This plan might be able to do both. Or, it could be an abject disaster. I think it’d be the former.
Tomlin is an asset when we play against NL team. He bat well last season and got a hit yesterday and pitched well last night until that disaster inning highlighted by errors etc.
Speaking of which, Dre tweeted last night that Tomlin hitting for MMart in Game 7 almost happened.
It’s fair to use age as a barometer, but this is also his 6th season in MLB.
Use Clevinger as an example and the story changes.
Tomlin has .438 career batting avg in MLB!!! He has 16 AB, 7 hits, 7 SO. I would have rather him hit than Martinez, he can probably play somewhere in OF…
Yeah, I mean sending Tomlin out for the 7th last night shows where Tito’s head is at. Someone send him this link.
We were all calling for it too. Would have been such a gutsy call.
Tito rarely if ever pulls his started between innings. It’s like a bizarre OCD.
Don’t toy with my emotions. I don’t need another “what if” for last season…
How is it that everyone but the guy actually making the decision knows not to push it with Tomlin?
And, it was setup so well, almost perfect.
7th: Shaw
8th: Miller
9th: Allen
And trust we’d find a way to score 1 run (or 2!)
Tomlin
Had to figure after we got lucky to get out of the 6th (24% catch probability in right field by our starting first baseman who had run into a wall out there earlier — and it turns into a double play) that Francona would have breathed a sigh of relief and had somebody ready to go. But, nope.
Cowboy, baby
(With the top let down and the sunshine shinin’)
Cowboy, baby
(North Coast Chillin’ while the boone’s whinin’) I want to be a cowboy, baby
(Ride at night ’cause I sleep all day) cowboy, baby
(I can smell a pig from a mile away)
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/763b7310e2ac820a4eaaecfc5bead02e93990e82aaabdd5760fb5d61e9933336.gif
The good ol’ 9-6-4 double play.
What would we talk about if we all stopped with the “what ifs”?
Despite our frustration with the rotation, the team actually has the fifth fewest bullpen innings, it’s not like we need to start saving those guys.
Count me in for something like the piggyback plan with Clevinger. Assuming Kluber comes back fine next week, we don’t need to ask for much out of Bauer, Tomlin, and Clevinger. Some nights with them getting just two turns through the order is interesting to me.
“fifth fewest bullpen innings”… Definitely doesn’t feel that way. Wow. AL or MLB?
MLB. Frankly, even if our rotation was pitching as well as last year, I would like to see us with a ton of bullpen innings. More than just Allen and Miller who are dominant, we have some good depth, including some useful arms in AAA to shuttle back and forth. We’re much better using our bullpen arms than most of our starters a third time through the order.
Maybe I’m in the minority here, but this early in the season, I’ll take advice from Donald Rumsfeld who said, “There are known knowns. There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don’t know.”
Clevinger is still an unknown unknown. He’s looked stellar so far, but this is a small sample size. He could further refine his pitching in Columbus, and be ready when the injury bug inevitably hits.
https://media.giphy.com/media/2pHCxQtUttmHm/giphy.gif
No “what ifs” of the past would lead to more “maybe we cans” about the future.
Lindor almost touches the bag, then he’s like ‘ya know, I’m gonna troll those keeping the books’
I think we know we don’t know about Clevinger. I also think that we know he has higher potential than Tomlin. The biggest unknown is how likely he is to reach that potential. I think blowing away AAA hitters isn’t going to help him much at this point. He needs MLB guys to refine his set now.
My former business professor for whom I have much respect phrased that a bit differently.
“Conscious incompetence is perfectly healthy and leads to individuals and companies developing specialties. Unconscious competence results in missed opportunities. Unconscious incompetence will bankrupt you.”
Should have flipped it back to Santana